Presentation to TAMU Geosciences Students on Globa

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Information about Presentation to TAMU Geosciences Students on Globa

Published on December 6, 2007

Author: nemostone


Slide 1: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or the use of the scientific method and How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming Slide 2: Is the planet getting warmer? Picture courtesy of NASA/JPL Yes "At least since 1989, Triton has been undergoing a period of global warming. Percentage-wise, it's a very large increase," said Elliot, professor of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences and director of the Wallace Astrophysical Observatory. The 5 percent increase on the absolute temperature scale from about minus-392 degrees Fahrenheit to about minus-389 degrees Fahrenheit would be like the Earth experiencing a jump of about 22 degrees Fahrenheit. This work is supported in part by NASA, the National Science Foundation and the National Geographic Society Photograph courtesy NASA Mars's southern polar ice cap, seen here in true color, has shrunk in recent years due to planetary warming—similar to what's happening on Earth. According to one scientist's controversial take, the simultaneous rise in temperatures on Earth and Mars indicates a natural—and not a human—cause for global warming. But the vast majority of experts maintain that humans are responsible for Earth's climate changes and that the Mars phenomenon is mere coincidence. So is Mars and Triton. Is the reason the same or is it coincidental? Slide 3: Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of the facts and the evidence. John Adams In twenty years the ice pack in the Arctic Circle has decreased by 0.2 million sq. km. The Antarctic ice pack has increased by 1.2 million sq. km. This does not factor in the depth of ice pack. Still, it seems likely the planet is generating more ice than the planet is losing. The Northern Hemisphere warming, the Southern Hemisphere cooling. Global Warming? Slide 4: It is all about the Infrared Absorbtion of Green House Gases. Most of the available artwork on the Internet and that available on Wikipedia leave off the y-axis title and scale. This cartoon at least has a titled y-axis though Absorption is normally listed as arbitrary units and Transmittance as %. So does this really tell me anything about the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming ? This cartoon isolates each gas so does not show the effects of mixing and interaction. It does not show the effects of altitude, latitude, and longitude or that CO2 is the only evenly distributed gas. Path length is also not indicated, or that absorbtion is not linearly additive for individual absorbers. Slide 5: The relationship between Transmittance and Absorbance units. Absorbance = -log (%trans/100) = -log(.94) = .027 = -log(0.01) = 2 400 ppm = .004% By Dalton’s Law of partial pressures 0.304 mm Hg for 10 cm 11mmHg/.304mmHg = 36X Can we correct some of the previous issues? Figure below shows the % Transmittance if you could pack all the CO2 contained in a volume 10 km tall and traveled through at a 45◦ angle. But again no interactions between CO2 and other atmospheric gases, particulates, or aerosols. Still this is instructive. 10km path at 45 ◦ angle = 14 km 1.4e5 X path Depending on slant angle transmittance varies from zero to 20%. Therefore reasonable to assume zero % Transmittance. At left is the Near IR spectra of CO2 and shows Transmittance for more than 30 times the average ppmv currently in the atmosphere. This however is only for a 10 cm path. Slide 6: Approximately 50% Transmittance Still only near IR, but a little more instructive. This is a graph from the author’s under-graduate work in ’95-’96. This spectra is actually mislabeled. This is a spectra of the Absorbance of the atmosphere saturated with water vapor at room temperature in the lab, and not just water . It is taken using only a 1 cm path length. It would be interesting to do this experiment again being very careful to use a model nitrogen/oxygen atmosphere saturated with water for a range of temperatures with a 400, 800, and 1200 ppmv addition of CO2. Then interpolate over 1 km at a 45◦ angle path. The fact that IR does not stay absorbed but is reradiated and reabsorbed many times would averaged out over the life of the data acquisition which can be made from minutes to hours. Slide 7: Surface, Troposphere, Stratosphere, or Globe: Is there a difference when referring to warming? December 1997 is Coldest Month on Record in the Stratosphere Eruption of Mt Chicon Mexico 1982 Eruption of Mt Pinatubo Mexico 1991 "Thermometer measurements indicate that the temperature of Earth's surface is warming, while the satellite data above show a recent cooling trend in the stratosphere, and virtually no trend in the lower atmospheric layer over the past 19 years. The proven high-reliability of these space-based temperature data obtained by NASA and University scientists will continue to play an important role in the investigation of the global warming issue." Slide 8: Figure 7. Global, monthly time series of brightness temperature anomaly for channels TLT, TMT, TTS, and TLS. For Channel TLT (Lower Troposphere) and Channel TMT (Middle Troposphere), the anomaly time series is dominated by ENSO events and slow tropospheric warming. The three primary El Niños during the past 20 years are clearly evident as peaks in the time series occurring during 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98, with the most recent one being the largest. Channel TLS (Lower Stratosphere) is dominated by stratospheric cooling, punctuated by dramatic warming events caused by the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991). Channel TTS (Troposhere / Stratosphere) appears to be a mixture of both effects. CO2 is responsible for 80% of stratospheric heating rate, 5% of the tropospheric heating rate. There is a difference even if you use only satellite data in the decadal temperature trends. Using surface temperature recordings to determine the global temperature is more problematic. See for more information. Slide 9: 10 hottest years 10 coldest years 3 of the 5 hottest years occurred before 1940. 1998 was the most dramatic El Nino since the 80’s. dramatic increases in fossil fuel use started in the 50’s. Even so will the trend continue or will it turn down? In 2106 on this trend the temp will be about the same as 1974 + 0.5◦C. Is this trend anymore reliable than others? Is this really a cause for alarm? Slide 10: What is man’s contribution? Scaling is important. Why does ice core proxy data show a steady state of CO2 concentration and why is this a more reliable determinant than direct chemical titrimetric determinations of CO2? Who are Maurice Strong and Paul Ehrlich, and what is their role in this? It is important to parse the language used and the questions asked. Slide 11: The Important Greenhouse Gases (except water vapor)U.S. Department of Energy, (October, 2000) (1) Anthropogenic (man-made) Contribution to the "GreenhouseEffect," expressed as % of Total (water vapor INCLUDED) Slide 12: "Well let me give you one fact first. In the first 30 feet of the atmosphere, on the average, outward radiation from the Earth, which is what carbon dioxide is supposed to affect, how much [of the reflected energy] is absorbed by water vapor? In the first 30 feet, 80 percent, okay? ...:  And how much is absorbed by carbon dioxide? Eight hundredths of one percent. One one-thousandth as important as water vapor. You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide." Reid Bryson, Emeritus Professor and founding chairman of the University of Wisconsin Dept. of Meteorology (now the Dept. of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences) From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Reid Bryson is an American atmospheric scientist, geologist and meteorologist. He was born in Michigan in 1920. He completed a B.A. in geology at Denison University in 1941 and a Ph.D. in meteorology from University of Chicago in 1948. In 1946 he joined the faculty of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and in 1948 he became the first chairman of the Department of Meteorology. He became the first director of the Institute for Environmental Studies in 1970. He has written more than 230 articles and five books, including Climates of Hunger, which won the Banta Medal for Literary Achievement. Slide 13: There were also measurements, accurate to within 3%, of 375.00 ppm in 1885 (Hempel in Dresden), 390.0 in 1866 (Gorup, Erlangen), and 416.0 in 1857 and 1858 (von Gilm, Innsbruck). Ironically, although the 1940s increase correlated with a period of average atmospheric warming, Beck and others have shown that the warming preceded the increase in CO2 concentrations. The data reviewed by Beck came mainly from the northern hemisphere, geographically spread from Alaska over Europe to Poona, India, nearly all taken from rural areas or the periphery of towns without contamination by industry, at a measuring height of approximately 2 meters above ground. Evaluation of chemical methods revealed a maximum error of 3% down to 1% in the best cases. Matching temperatures to the CO2 concentration is not much help here as it has been shown that temperature increases precede CO2 increases by 800 to 1000 years . CO2 data from Vostock ice cores Slide 14: It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts. Sherlock Holmes And sometimes, it seems, that even after one has data that theories are favored. Putting it all together: total human greenhouse gas contributions add up to about 0.28% of the greenhouse effect. Is this really enough to trigger an imminent disaster? Slide 15: " There is no dispute at all about the fact that even if punctiliously observed, (the Kyoto Protocol) would have an imperceptible effect on future temperatures -- one-twentieth of a degree by 2050. " Dr. S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, former director of the US Weather Satellite Service; in a Sept. 10, 2001 Letter to Editor, Wall Street Journal For 23 inflation adjusted billion dollars we were able to put a man on the moon For 50 billion dollars we can prevent and treat HIV/AIDS, treat Malaria, and provide micro nutrients to end malnutrition Kyoto will cost $30 trillion for a 0.05 degree C reduction, we have spent $30 billion on global warming research (much could be spent smarter) and so far the only solution offered is we must end the use of fossil fuels. Slide 16: ... no credible dissent from these conclusions. No alternatives except to end the use of fossil fuels... Slide 17: Does man’s activities have an impact on the environment? Of course, and we must understand before we act. In the 70’s, when it was obvious that we were entering a new Ice Age, it was suggested we cover the Arctic Ice Pack with soot to prevent the ice sheet from covering Canada. Maybe it was a good thing we waited. Slide 18: Hypothesis: It's not the CO2 we generate, it is not even the waste heat we generate, it is our inefficient use of energy. Observations: non reflective low albedo road surfaces the urban heat island effect internal combustion engine waste heat air conditioner compressor exhaust refrigerator heat exhaust Sample albedos Engine Efficiency The efficiency of internal combustion engines is lower than electric motor energy efficiency. Most, even when aided with turbochargers, have a mechanical efficiency of about 20% to 37%. Internal combustion engines waste ~36% of the energy in gasoline as heat lost to the cooling system, 38% through the exhaust, and about 6%, to friction. Slide 19: “Using a small telescope and makeshift gear, astronomers easily showed that we reflect 30 percent of incoming sunlight back into space - a number that our satellite system got earlier, at a price tag of hundreds of millions of dollars.” Geoengineering add particulates – design experiments; stay within natural variability, i.e. volcanoes grow plants - trees in areas of low interest, but need to watch water consumption - oceanic phytoplankton – “Geritol Solution” +iron, grow, sequester Reflectivity - a 0.5% change in albedo solves the problem. Outer space parasol Naval guns and reflective chaff grow shade trees more concrete and white roof tops jet fuel make clouds – coal burning ships at sea A summary of Benford’s paper I’m all for dumping a couple million dollars worth of iron filings into the Arctic Ocean and see what happens. The water is cold and holds a lot of CO2. The phytoplankton will serve as a food source and will sequester CO2. If the ice age starts we can stop quickly. Slide 20: Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter neccessitatem (Keep it simple stupid) If we are going to meddle in such a complicated open system... Slide 21: Smarter Automobility Pneumatic cars BMW Steam turbine uses waste heat. Electric cars Slide 22: Power cells find uses for fossil fuel - Brief Article Science News,  March 18, 2000  by C. Wu A new fuel cell that runs on hydrocarbons such as natural gas, butane, and diesel could be an efficient, practical way to generate power without pollution. Unlike typical fuel cells, which run on hydrogen, this new device oxidizes fossil fuels to produce electricity. Hydrogen fuel cells produce only water as a by-product, making them an attractive power source for electric cars. Storing volatile hydrogen onboard a vehicle raises worries about safety, however. Application of Direct Oxidation of Liquid Hydrocarbon Fuels in Solid Oxide Fuel Cells to Automotive Auxiliary Power Units Gary M. Crosbie, Erica Perry Murray, and David R. Bauer, Research Laboratory, Ford Motor Company Hyuk Kim, Seungdoo Park, John M. Vohs, and Raymond J. Gorte, University of Penn. News Feature Nature 448, 746-748 (16 August 2007) | doi:10.1038/448746a; Published online 15 August 2007 There is a Correction (8 November 2007) associated with this document. Materials chemistry: Space invaders Abstract: Space exploration usually means leaving Earth's orbit. But chemists are now burrowing inside solids to open new vistas. Katharine Sanderson reports from the internal frontier. MOF’s capable of storing methane in low pressure tanks. Developed by Dr. Omar Yaghi and manufactured by BASF. Combine with Perhaps a practical electric car without large lithium ion batteries? Effective Electric Car? Slide 23: Smarter Housing High albedo, better insulation, walls, windows Take the kitchen outside, don’t air condition the oven. Slide 24: German Government Study Questions Value of Wind Power Written By: Iain Murray and Myron Ebell Published In: Environment News Publication Date: June 1, 2005 Why did the German’s do it and why are we? Lucrative tax shelters and Governmental subsidies To replace fossil fuels with wind, solar, biomass would require a land mass equivalent to South America (22 million sq. km, China (10 million sq. km, and India (3 million sq. km) combined. On a smaller personal scale these solutions still make a great deal of sense, especially solar when using the new plastic solar cells. But these options should be based on valued incentives and goals. The current legislation using targeted incentives and voluntary goals has reduced US greenhouse gas emissions by 11%. Slide 25: 300-400 years of coal buys time to be even smarter. There is more to the smart use of coal (DOE funded project) than just energy; marketable chemicals and solid byproducts. Slide 26: Uranium and thorium are already heating the Earth’s crust whether we use the heat or not. Eventually this finite resource will be consumed. The recycling featured here becomes expensive by the third step, but will buy us time to find a cheap and renewable energy source that does not require wholesale changes to the environment. The final waste that cannot be recycled needs 500 years storage. Buys us CO2 free energy in the process. In the December 2005 edition of Scientific American. Smarter Use of Nuclear Waste By William H. Hannum, Gerald E. Marsh and George S. Stanford Slide 27: We are not chickens. We can be smart about this and not bankrupt the world in the process. We do have time and the ability. We need to fix the things we can and remove the politics from this issue.

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