Presentation Peet TÃll 2

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Travel-Nature

Published on March 27, 2008

Author: Willi

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SARS:  SARS IMPACT ON ECONOMIES Jong-Wha Lee - Warwick J. McKibbin :  Jong-Wha Lee - Warwick J. McKibbin First, fear of SARS infection leads to a substantial decline in consumer demand,especially for travel and retail sales service. Second, the uncertain features of the disease reduces confidence in the future of the affected economies. Third, SARS undoubtedly increases the costs of disease prevention, especially in the most affected industries such as travel and the retail sales service industries. SIMULATION:  SIMULATION Jong-Wha Lee - Warwick J. McKibbin SIMULATION:  SIMULATION Jong-Wha Lee - Warwick J. McKibbin SIMULATION:  SIMULATION Jong-Wha Lee - Warwick J. McKibbin CONCLUSION:  CONCLUSION The impact of SARS is estimated to be large on the affected economies of China and Hong Kong. This impact is not due to the consequence of the disease itself for the affected people, but the impact of the disease on the behavior of many people within these economies. These results illustrate that the true cost of disease is far greater than the cost to a health budget of treatment of the cases involved. Jong-Wha Lee - Warwick J. McKibbin Revised May 20, 2003 Susan J. Adams IMF Office—Hanoi:  Susan J. Adams IMF Office—Hanoi STAGES OF ESTIMATION: • First round quantifiable channels of impact are assumed in the tourism, retail and external trade sectors (estimating now). • Second round quantifiable effects could also include manufacturing and financial services; lower FDI inflows (will estimate later this year). • Prolonged psychological and social impacts will not be observable or measurable until much later, if ever. IMPACT OF SARS IN VIETNAM:  IMPACT OF SARS IN VIETNAM ONTARIO, CANADA:  ONTARIO, CANADA Updated Tue. Aug. 12 2003 3:56 PM ET  SARS claims $1 billion hit from Ontario economy Canadian Press TORONTO — Ontario's Conservative government is being forced to withdraw $1 billion from its reserve and contingency funds because of the economic impact of SARS, Finance Minister Janet Ecker said Tuesday. Ecker, who released her first-quarter economic statement at the Ontario legislature, said the province's two rainy-day funds currently contain $1.7 billion, but will be depleted to $700,000. Economical development in China:  Economical development in China “Foreign exchange receipts from tourism, which accounts for half of total services exports, declined declined by 20 percent in the first half of 2003, and is estimated to drop by US$8.8 billion (4 percent) during 2003.” (produced by Min Zhao), CHINA STILL MAKES IT:  CHINA STILL MAKES IT China's economy continued to grow fast in the first half of 2003 despite the negative impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), thanks to strong performance in foreign trade, a steady rise of consumer demand and more foreign direct investment (FDI), said an annual report issued Friday in Bangkok by the Economic Committee of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum. In contrast to "a hesitant recovery" for the global economy, China's economy registered a year-on-year growth of 8.2 percent in the first half this year, with a robust 9.9 percent growth in the first quarter, and is predicted to grow around 7 percent for the whole of 2003, said the report titled "2003 APEC Economic Outlook," which will be submitted to the APEC ministerial meeting on Saturday. Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, October 17, 2003 TAIWAN HEADLINES :  TAIWAN HEADLINES Chou Ji, director of the CIER Center for Economic Forecasting, said the slower growth pace in 2003 derived from the blow to domestic consumption, including tourism, delivered by the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, triggering a 0.08 percent contraction in the second quarter. Published:October 17, 2003 Source:Taiwan News SINGAPORE:  SINGAPORE For the Singapore economy - one of the worst hit by Sars - the IMF has forecast a 4.2 per cent expansion, a strong rebound from this year's projected 0.5 per cent. The Singapore government recently said that barring 'unexpected shocks', the economy should grow 3 to 5 per cent next year. Growth this year is tipped at zero or one per cent. Published October 24, 2003 GLOBAL ECONOMY:  GLOBAL ECONOMY WHILE THE WORLD Health Organization declared on July 5 that the epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, had been contained, the world economy will continue to feel the effects of the deadly disease for some time. SARS, which infected 8,436 people in 30 countries and killed 812 since the first case was reported in China last November, will cost the global economy $30 billion, according to a widely cited estimate by Morgan Stanley's chief economist. IT analysts report that lowered technology investments will, like the disease itself, hit Asian countries such as China and Taiwan the hardest. Aberdeen Group says both demand for technology goods and the supply of silicon chips and other computer components will drop. That will cost China an estimated $1.7 billion in IT spending as global technology expenditures will drop by $2.2 billion, Aberdeen predicts. IDC (a sister company to CIO's publisher) projects China will lose about $1 billion in information technology spending. That translates to an IT spending growth rate of 6.1 percent instead of 7.6 percent for 2003. Aug. 15, 2003 Issue of CIO Magazine Short-term Economic Impact of SARS:  Short-term Economic Impact of SARS Consumer confidence has dramatically declined in a number of economies, leading to a significant reduction in private consumption spending. Much of the impact stems from the great uncertainty and fear generated by SARS. People have opted to stay at home to reduce the probability of infection. Service exports, in particular tourism-related exports, have been hard hit. Investment is affected by reduced overall demand, heightened uncertainties, and increased risks. Excess capacity will emerge or increase. Furthermore, foreign investment inflow may be delayed or reduced in reaction toSARS. While increased government spending will mitigate the impact, the ability of governments to revive economies facing widespread reductions in private spending is limited. Emma Xiaoqin Fan Why has the Impact of SARS been so pronounced?:  Why has the Impact of SARS been so pronounced? the almost costless and rapid transmission of information due to the development of modern media and communication technologies, and the lack of sufficient medical information on SARS. Emma Xiaoqin Fan The SARS epidemic demonstrates that::  The SARS epidemic demonstrates that: The accurate, timely, and transparent provision of information on the nature and extent of diseases by governments is critical for educating the public about the real risks and reducing public fears and uncertainties. Early identification and containment is critical, as any delays will create greater costs later on. SARS is merely one of many contagious diseases that could potentially flare up. In particular, there is a need to minimize the occurrence of all contagious diseases; to effectively respond to emergency situations; and to strengthen health systems. The global implications of serious contagious diseases means that governments need to intensify cooperation and coordination. Government budgets need to be capable of handling unheralded public health crises. (After Emma Xiaoqin Fan)

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