Published on April 10, 2008
Namibia and the world economy: Namibia and the world economy 16 September 2005 Philip Clayton Windhoek 15 March 2007 A longer term and regional perspective Namibia: Namibia Slide3: Namibia: fiscal health (% of GDP) Source: EIU Namibia report Slide4: Doing business: good in a regional context Source: IFC Doing Business Starting a Business Dealing with Licenses Employing Workers Registering Property Getting Credit Protecting Investors Paying Taxes Trading Across Borders Enforcing Contracts Closing a Business Slide5: Growth – OK, but could do better Source:World Markets Slide6: Government spending: Namibia out of line Source:World Markets Burden of government high. Public sector share of formal employment out of kilter with region. Need to focus on bang for tax buck Government suggests 2009/10 spending at 29.7% of GDP Slide7: Deficit: much work still to be done Source:World Markets Revenue can be very variable – fishing, diamonds SACU. Need to look for new sources, while keeping overall burden low. Need to assess value of spending Government pencilling in deficit of 1.1% of GDP over MTEF Slide8: Share of revenue, revised 2006/07 Source: EIU Two fifths of revenue – SACU transfers – will be under pressure in real terms Slide9: SACU payments, as % of SA revenue Source: SA National Treasury Tax payments and compliance: Tax payments and compliance Source: PWC Corporate Tax : Corporate Tax Corporate income tax, labour tax, and other taxes, Source: PWC Individual Tax – highest rate : Individual Tax – highest rate Source: Worldwide-Tax.com Monaco 0% Singapore 21% Namibia 35% SA 40% Norway 51% Today’s Budget: Balance sheet - positives: Today’s Budget: Balance sheet - positives Pro poor – tax threshold up 50%, to N$36 000 pa, pension allowance up 33% to N$40 000; Grants for 78 000 children over MTEF Education 22.2% of spending in MTEF (bang for buck?).Continued stated focus on growth Budget surplus this year of 2.1% of GDP (but specials influence this). In MTEF, expenditure projected to decline to 29.7% of GDP, from 34.2% IN 06/07 Development budget up further $800m under MTEF Debt management improved – prevents lumpy redemptions Focus on tax compliance – revenue and grants 36.3% GDP in 2007/08 Today’s Budget: Balance sheet - negatives: Today’s Budget: Balance sheet - negatives Rising operational expenditure – 77.7% of total in 06/07, to 82.1% in MTEF. Need is to improve capital stock; looks like economic services gets only 11% Short on details regarding underperforming parastatals – particularly Air Namibia (and is this subsidy pro-poor?) Loan funding – even if concessional – to plug hole in revenue. But deficit at 1.1% of GDP over MTEF is sustainable. But, is the decline in share of GDP on government consumption - and declining real spend pegged at $17bn or so for three years - realistic? Massive underspending on development budget in 06/07 thus far – suggests capacity constraints. Will this continue? Burden of state on economy not addressed (but perhaps not just Minister’s job) Budget conclusion : Budget conclusion Within tough constraints, Minister has done a good job. Focus on poor, job creation, transforming the economy – all to be applauded. Thrust of focus on indigenising investment – on unlisted companies, and decreasing share of dual listed that counts – a positive sentiment. But – concern regarding unintended consequences (misallocated capital; another building bubble, etc) eed critical look at development, and particularly job creation, obstacles. It is not only the measured tax burden that is at issue; the unmeasured regulatory and other compliance is also an obstacle. With the constraints – a good job. But, need to focus on diversifying revenue; looking critically at all what government does (a third of formal sector works for the state). MTEF process a good start. With vision – Namibia can achieve a better life for all – despite the tough periods it has gone through Global context: Global context Emerging markets – now pushing ahead: Emerging markets – now pushing ahead Sustainable thrust Source: IMF Slide18: International issues affecting southern Africa Emerging market sentiment shifts – global risk shifts Commodity demand and prices (China key) Middle East, Iraq North Korea Zimbabwe United States and recession; global housing market GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED Slide19: Population trends – median age Population dynamics moving absolutely – and relatively – in favour of Africa, Latin America, Asia – against developed world Source: Group Economics (from UN World Population Prospects) China and India: China and India China and India together, account for two fifths of the world’s population. And greater region (with Indonesia, Vietnam, etc), over half China has been growing at 10% pa for two decades; the Hindu giant has begun stirring Demand for commodities is huge. High value agriculture imports likely to surge (in similar fashion to China shifting from oil exporter, to second-biggest importer). China now exporting inflation – not deflation: thanks to impact on commodities, and small – but significant – revaluation of Renmimbi. Also, labour costs pushing up even manufactured prices Note increasing influence of China, and India, in African investments China’s demand, commodity prices: China’s demand, commodity prices Does the China, India effect mean the boom will last much longer than average? Source: Economist, 22 July 2006 Slide22: Africa and global growth Long-term uptick in Africa’s performance - but still below Asia Source: IMF World Outlook, April 2006 South Africa: South Africa Economic growth: Economic growth Sustainable step-lift? Source: SARB, Standard Bank Group Growth sustainable – Shift from consumption, to uptick in capital spending (private sector and government). Concern is the skills gap; AIDS. Good fiscal policies opening up ability to spend more on social issues Fixed investment: Fixed investment The big dig Source: Standard Bank Group, SARB Inflation: Inflation Structurally lower Source: SARB, Standard Bank Group Exchange rate Global inflation and competition Credible inflation target framework Capacity utilisation Vulnerable to external shocks, especially exchange rate Economic forecasts: Economic forecasts Growth and inflation outlook benign, but talk about bottlenecks rising. Not sure I am as positive on rand as group is. Source: Standard Bank Group 28 February
View and Download PowerPoint Presentations on NAMIBIA AND THE WORLD ECONOMY PWC AUDIT AND ASSURANCE PPT. Find PowerPoint Presentations and Slides using ...
Standard Bank Group Precious Metals Financing And Hedging Techniques For The Gold Jewellery Industry. Dubai, 21 st February 2005. Jeffrey Rhodes . Standard
Free PPT Templates, Presentations, Lecture Notes, Files for Download, View and Edit - PwC Market Trends, Free PowerPoint templates for download and edit ...
Namibia and the world economy A longer term and regional perspective 16 September 2005 Philip Clayton Windhoek 15 March 2007 Namibia Tax payments ...
Multinational Enterprises and the Global Economy, Second Edition.pdf. Ailiang980 上传于 2013-09-28 16:44 | (5人评价) |