Published on February 27, 2014
Potential of human-robot interaction for manufacturing Prof dr ir Bram Vanderborght firstname.lastname@example.org ! Robotics Research Group Vrije Universiteit Brussel 2/5/14 !1 pag.
Ageing population Change 1990 to 2009 1990 (1) Excluding French overseas departments. (2) Data may be aﬀected by the change of population deﬁnition in 2008. (3) 2008 instead of 2009. Source: Eurostat (demo_pjanind) In 1990 In 2060 Persons 65+ à 13,7 % Persons Figure 2.8: Population structure by major age groups, EU-27 (1) 65+ à Persons 85+ à Persons 85+ à (% of total population) 3,1 % 3.1 3.3 4.5 10.6 100 12.3 12.7 66.8 67.2 à increase with 250% k à increase with 400% k 5.7 6.9 14.4 8.9 11.0 12.1 16.6 18.0 17.8 17.8 75 50 30% 12% 67.2 64.6 61.9 59.2 57.1 56.0 25 19.5 17.2 15.6 15.4 14.5 14.0 14.1 14.0 1990 2000 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 0 In 1990 67% of population support population 80+ years 65-79 years 15-64 years 0-14 years In 2060 Only 56% of population support population Working (1) Excluding French overseas departments; 2020 to 2060 data are EUROPOP2008 convergence scenario. Source: Eurostat (demo_pjanind and proj_08c2150p) population shall - Work harder - Work more To realize the same Today 40 hout/week !2 à In 2060:2/5/14 50 hour/week pag.
Increasing life expectancy In 1960 Life expectancy Belgium 69,66 years Av. EU 67,72 years In 2008 (50 years later) Life expectancy Belgium 80,10 years Av. EU 78,66 years At age of 65 Belgium 13,52 years Av. EU 13,99 years At age of 65 Belgium 19,50 years Av. EU 18,46 years ! Source: HEIDI data tool EU-‐Commission ! For Belgium this is an increase of 18,2% over 50 years ! 1/5 longer life!!! 2/5/14 !3 pag.
Increased need for assistance The need for Personal Assistance with everyday activities increases with age. ! % of persons needing assistance with everyday activities by age Not only functional weakness, but mobility also affected by lower motor skills due to stroke or neurological misfunction 2/5/14 !4 pag.
Increased health cost For EU by 2050: ! healthcare spending increase with 25% For Flanders by 2050 : • will be confronted much stronger • its demographic pattern counts more elderly people • And Healthcare costs are higher in comparison with other EU countries ! • Today = 11,1% of GDP = 36,8 billion EUR Source: EU White Paper “Together for Health: A Strategic Approach for the EU 2008-2013”. Health is the greatest wealth! ! • Increase of 25% = 9,2 billion EUR/year 2/5/14 !5 pag.
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Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy Policy makers and societies need to prepare for future technology. To do this well, they will need a clear understanding of how technology might shape the global economy and society over the coming decades. ! Since the Industrial Revolution, technology has had a unique role in powering growth and transforming economies. ! The McKinsey Global Institute set out to identify which of these technologies could have a massive economically disruptive impact between now and 2025. 2/5/14 !7 pag.
Study Gartner • 2013 Hype Cycle on evolving relationship Combine the best of the two worlds Machines between human and machine. • precision • repeatability • 3 trends: – Augmenting humans with technology – Machines replacing humans – Humans and machines working alongside each other • 3D jobs • … Humans • creativity • problem solving • dexterity • … ! Human robot interaction 2/5/14 !8 pag.
Foresight study of Fraunhofer about the future technology domains Germany next 10-15 years 2/5/14 pag.
Robots are about to enter our daily life Zora clip Reinout Verbeke Cyberlegs AMPFoot Probo 2/5/14 !10 pag.
Need for a strong manufacturing industry Manufacturing industry: 20% employment / 80% export Indirect employment: 2-5 jobs Manufacturing industry essential for other industries (without product, nothing to transport). Manufacturing industry under pressure (Ford Genk,…) Innovation required ! 2/5/14 pag.
Manufacturing industry: outflow to low cost countries path manufacturing in low cost countries Japan - South Korea - China - Vietnam - … ! Labor costs: US: $23.32/hour Germany: 25.80$/hour China: 1.36$/hour ! • Not sustainable • Loss of innovation • Loss of jobs ! 2/5/14 pag.
Trends towards reshoring 2/5/14 pag.
Industrial robots International Federation of Robotics (IFR) 2012: 1.15 million operational industrial robots 2015: 1.58 million robots (+36%) China will become the biggest robotics market in 2013 (to keep up competition). Robots sold to automotive OEMs +47% Robots sold to automotive component suppliers +21% Robots create jobs (and with better quality) 2/5/14 pag.
Limitations industrial robots • • • • Big and heavy Expensive Dangerous Requires skilled persons 2/5/14 pag.
New generation co-workers • • • • • • Safety, faceless operation Co-worker: social and physical human-robot interaction Intuitive learning by demonstration Suitable for unskilled employers Suitable for low volumes Cheap 2/5/14 pag.
Co-workers Cheap 22.000 $ - 3,4$/hour Suitable for SME Learning by demonstration suitable for small quantities Safe: work with humans ! ! UBR-1 35.000$ Unbounded Robotics 2/5/14 pag.
A roadmap for US Robotics 2/5/14 pag.
! “Robotics is the fastest growing industry in the world, poised to become the largest in the next decade.”! ! That’s the opening quote from a new report by Littler Mendelson, the world’s largest labor and employment law ﬁrm. The Report titled: “The Transformation of the Workplace Though Robotics, Artiﬁcial Intelligence (AI), and Automation” 2/5/14 pag.
Example Brussels airport Staff in airport walks 20km a day ! ! ! ! Luggage handler moves 18 ton a day How can they work longer? Use of assistive robotics 2/5/14 pag.
Exoskeletons Knexo VUB ALTACRO VUB 2/5/14 !23 pag.
Conclusion • Robots are about to enter new applications • Answer to societal challenges • Create new economic markets • Robots will be in Factories of the Future • Robots will be Products of the Future • Robots will be everywhere in different forms and applications, impact bigger than the internet • But still research necessary • Solve in a interdisciplinary research effort 2/5/14 !24 pag.
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