poster Schultz

67 %
33 %
Information about poster Schultz
Entertainment

Published on October 7, 2007

Author: Natalia

Source: authorstream.com

Slide1:  P1.7 Decision Making by Austin, Texas, Residents in Hypothetical Tornado Scenarios The Warning Project David M. Schultz, CIMMS, University of Oklahoma, and NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma, USA (david.schultz@noaa.gov) (Now at University of Helsinki and Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland) Eve Gruntfest1, Charles Benight2, Sheldon Drobot3, Lindsey Barnes4, and Mary Hayden5 • Purpose: to understand the geographic and psychological components of warning response and to improve warning messages for short-fuse weather events (i.e., flash floods and tornadoes) • Sponsored by the National Science Foundation • PIs: Eve Gruntfest and Charles Benight • Collaboration between geographers, psychologists, and meteorologists • Survey mailed to about 3000 Austin, Texas, residents in or near the flood plain in 2005 • 519 surveys returned for a response rate of 34.6%. Tornado-at-Home Scenario Conclusions Demographics Local sources of weather information through older technologies are the primary way people receive weather information. The cry-wolf effect is not seen in this study. People with a tornado plan, in-home shelter, or both are more likely to stay at home during a tornado warning. Some people have unrealistic expectations on how to be warned about tornadoes at home. Nearly 50% of people would shelter under a highway overpass and exhibit other risky behavior. Further analysis of this data will aim to determine why people make good or bad decisions during a hypothetical tornado scenario. • Nearly 70% live alone or w/ one other • 84.1% are homeowners • 89.8% live in houses • 1.8% live in mobile homes • 73.1% are white • 17.0% are Hispanic or Latino • 5.1% are African American * 88.7% speak English in the home * 2.7% speak Spanish * 8.0% speak both English and Spanish * 0.6% other * 65.7% have lived within 5 miles (8 km) of their current home for 7 or more yrs • 81.6% say they are knowledgeable enough to know what to do to keep their family safe • 61.9% felt completely capable of keeping themselves and their family safe • Generally, respondents would be moved to action with only 3.3% not taking any action • 17.7% would leave their house to get out of the path of the tornado. • People with a tornado plan for their family would be more likely to stay at their house than leave, but that result is not statistically significant (p=0.20). • Respondents whose homes had basements, storm shelters, or interior rooms were more likely to stay at home during tornadoes (p=0.021) Where do you get your weather information? • Old technologies are still the most used and most important sources • Newer technologies (internet, cell phone) have not generally been adopted • Multiple sources of information (including environmental cues) are used as confirmation • 2.8% said “friends” or “neighbors” in “Other” • 28% use NOAA Weather Radio,significantly more than other cities because of an intensive public relations campaign within local grocery stores • Local sources of information are important, but this mechanism is threatened by more stations adopting nonlocal programming with automated airplay and the use of satellite television. The following scenario was presented in the survey. I am upstairs at home watching my favorite television show on a Saturday evening in October. The thunder and rain in the background is getting louder and louder. Hail is now crashing against my windows. Suddenly, I see a tornado warning at the bottom of the television screen stating that a tornado has been sighted in the Austin area and is moving in the direction of my home. The warning states: “The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is available. . . seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to cover your body and always stay away from windows.” Is there a cry-wolf effect? False Alarm Conventional Wisdom: Too many false alarms would cause people to not respond to future warnings. This is called the cry-wolf effect, from Aesop's fable of “The Boy Who Cried Wolf,” also called the false-alarm effect—“The credibility loss (of a warning system) due to a false alarm” (Breznitz 1984). • Most correctly know that a tornado warning indicates a more serious threat (88.2%) or more likely threat (90.2%) than a tornado watch. Good news for the NWS! • 23.7% disagree or strongly disagree that a tornado would pose a life-threatening risk to them • 9.9% believe that officials are too sensitive to the possibility of tornadoes • 11.2% would prefer less warnings even if it means there were more false alarms or close calls • 13.8% say that one or two tornado false alarms or close calls would reduce their confidence in future warnings Therefore, respondents are not as susceptible to the cry-wolf effect as conventional wisdom implies. Tornado-While Driving Scenario How would you like to be warned at home? I am driving east on Martin Luther King Blvd. near Airport Blvd. at 3 p.m. on an August afternoon to meet some friends. It’s been pouring for the last 20 minutes, and I see lightning everywhere. I look to my right and see what looks like a funnel cloud begin to drop from the sky not too far to the south. Traffic begins to slow down as the hail becomes more intense. I hear over the radio that a tornado warning has been issued for central Travis County: “The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is available. . . seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an interior hallway or room such as a closet. If in mobile homes or vehicles. . . evacuate them and get inside a substantial shelter.” In contrast to the tornado-at-home scenario (81.6%), only 47.2% felt confident to keep their family safe. • 71.7% would leave their car and seek shelter • 39.2% would stay in their car and drive away from the tornado • 19.1% would stop their car and remain in it • 16.4% would attempt to drive through the storm to get home to loved ones and/or pets 45.2% would stop their car under a highway overpass and climb into the rafters People who would attempt to drive an SUV into a road with at least 18 inches (45.7 cm) of rapidly rising water would be more likely to climb into the rafters (p=0.0002), indicating a general tendency for unwise behavior. Overpasses are unsafe places to shelter from a tornado! People are very confidently climbing the rafters thinking they’re doing the safe thing. People who would not climb the rafters are not confident they can be safe. 1Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Colorado at Colorado Springs, Colorado Springs, Colorado 2Department of Psychology, University of Colorado at Colorado Springs, Colorado Springs, Colorado 3University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 4Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Charlotte, South Carolina 5National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Add a comment

Related presentations

Related pages

Schultz Poster bei AllPosters.de

Schultz Poster bei AllPosters.de. Über 500.000 Poster – Individuelle Rahmen, Schnelle Lieferung und 100% Zufriedenheitsgarantie.
Read more

Jill Schultz McGannon Poster bei AllPosters.de

Jill Schultz McGannon Poster bei AllPosters.de. Über 500.000 Poster – Individuelle Rahmen, Schnelle Lieferung und 100% Zufriedenheitsgarantie.
Read more

Schultz McGannon Jill Poster auf Poster.de

Schultz McGannon Jill Poster auf Poster.de. Hat diese Galerie Sie inspiriert? Weitere Poster, Kunstdrucke und spezielle Produkte finden Sie auf Poster.de.
Read more

Schulz Wilhelm Poster auf Poster.de

Schulz Wilhelm Poster auf Poster.de. Hat diese Galerie Sie inspiriert? Weitere Poster, Kunstdrucke und spezielle Produkte finden Sie auf Poster.de.
Read more

Manuel Schulz Poster online bestellen | Posterlounge

Manuel Schulz Poster bei Posterlounge Gratisversand in 1-2 Tagen Kauf auf Rechnung Große Auswahl Jetzt Manuel Schulz Bilder online bestellen!
Read more

Marzena Schulz - Bilder und Kunst von Marzena Schulz ...

Marzena Schulz - Bestelle Bilder und Kunst von Marzena Schulz und viele andere Bilder, Poster und Kunstdrucke bei ARTFLAKES.
Read more

Schulz Poster bei Germanposters.de - Jetzt ...

Schulz Poster bei Germanposters.de kaufen | Große Auswahl, auf Wunsch mit Rahmen, schnelle Lieferung & Kostenloser Versand innerhalb Deutschlands!
Read more

Schultz Posters | Zazzle

Search for Schultz posters from Zazzle. Check out all of the spectacular designs and choose your favorite Schultz posters, prints, and framed art.
Read more

Dave Schultz Posters at AllPosters.com

Dave Schultz Posters at AllPosters.com. Choose from over 500,000 Posters and Art Prints. Value Framing, Fast Delivery, 100% Satisfaction Guarantee.
Read more

Bilder | Olli Schulz

Ihr könnt alle Bilder für alles benutzen – wer cool ist, nennt den Fotografen. Fotos in hoher Auflösung könnt Ihr hier runterladen.
Read more