advertisement

posp72 0

40 %
60 %
advertisement
Information about posp72 0
Entertainment

Published on October 11, 2007

Author: Nivedi

Source: authorstream.com

advertisement

Hong Kong Property since 1997 Handover - Enigma of Keeping the Crocodile :  Hong Kong Property since 1997 Handover - Enigma of Keeping the Crocodile Jim Yip Senior Manager Valuation Advisory Services Jones Lang LaSalle 11 February 2004 Crocodile Vs Property-based Economy:  Crocodile Mania Dominated the headline news Attracted visitors to Yeun Long Brisk sales to the villagers Planned a new crocodile house in TSW park Property Mania Property market recovery Created a wealth effect Boosted consumption and retail sales Boosted gov’t land sales Crocodile Vs Property-based Economy Keeping the crocodile in the open area is dangerous Keeping an economy that banks on property is also dangerous… What have we learnt from the past 6 years? Agenda:  Agenda From Mania to Mayhem - the Case for Property Market since Hand-over What Triggers Current Price Recovery? Can Price Upturn be Sustained? The Worst will not Come? From Mania to Mayhem :  From Mania to Mayhem Property Boom in 1997:  Property Boom in 1997 Speculation Shortage of supply Trade-up demand Liquidity Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Property Slump Mid 1997 - 2003:  Property Slump Mid 1997 - 2003 Asia Financial Crisis Oversupply Economic restructuring Government land and housing policy Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Supply Outstrips Demand:  Supply Outstrips Demand Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Government Measures in the Market :  Government Measures in the Market Increased land supply Increased subsidized housing sales Sold public rental housing units Between 97 - 99 Between 99 - 2003 Cut down, and eventually abolished subsidized housing Imposed land sales moratorium twice, curtailed land sales program Offered home starter loan Offered mortgage tax relief Criticism on Government Land and Housing Policy :  Criticism on Government Land and Housing Policy Too drastic, too slow Obscure, no public debate process Lack of leadership What are the Factors for the Current Strong Price Recovery? :  What are the Factors for the Current Strong Price Recovery? Affordability the lowest, but not a Key Driver for Housing Demand:  Affordability the lowest, but not a Key Driver for Housing Demand Household Number Rising, not by Population Growth :  Household Number Rising, not by Population Growth Number of Domestic Households 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Million Decomposition of Household Size Has a Limit..... :  Decomposition of Household Size Has a Limit..... Average Domestic Household Size 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 No. of Persons Homeownership Rising, but More Slowly :  Homeownership Rising, but More Slowly Proportion of Owner Occupiers 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Sluggish Mortgage Loan Market:  Sluggish Mortgage Loan Market Declining mortgage market 21% 29% 8% 4% 1% 8% 2% -2% $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: HKMA & Jones Lang LaSalle Total outstanding mortgage New mortgage loan Loan growth YoY Fall in Trade-up Demand:  Fall in Trade-up Demand Construction Cycle Peaked:  Construction Cycle Peaked Can the Property Upturn be Sustained? :  Can the Property Upturn be Sustained? Reverse Fortune - Economic Growth Stalled :  Reverse Fortune - Economic Growth Stalled Source: Hong Kong Monetary Authority GDP Residential price index Plagued by Deflation:  Plagued by Deflation Rising Unemployment Rate:  Rising Unemployment Rate Source: Hong Kong Government Growing Budget Deficits:  Growing Budget Deficits Source: Hong Kong Government Contribution of the Property Sector:  Contribution of the Property Sector GDP Tax Employment Personal wealth Infrastructure, hospital, public housing, education, Low tax haven Sizable reserve USD 100bn include Land Fund USD 25bn Falling Land Revenues:  Falling Land Revenues Source: Hong Kong Government Old Problems Persist, New Issues Arise:  Old Problems Persist, New Issues Arise Budget deficits Still relying on property sector Problems in restructuring civil service, health care, education… New retail tax on the card… unpopular The Worst will not Come?:  The Worst will not Come? Challenges on Demand Side:  Challenges on Demand Side Living in a high-tax regime Sluggish trade-up demand Economic restructuring still ongoing Negative impacts of greater economic integration with Mainland HK-Shenzhen Western Corridor Opens in 2005 How have the Grade A Office Markets Fared in SZ,GZ & HK?:  How have the Grade A Office Markets Fared in SZ,GZ & HK? Our Records in Anticipating Big Changes are Poor…. :  Our Records in Anticipating Big Changes are Poor…. In 1997 We Failed to Spot the Supply Boom:  In 1997 We Failed to Spot the Supply Boom - 1996 92 – 94 3-yr Avg = 86,289 sq.m. 95 – 97 3-yr Avg = 218,290 sq.m. In 1997 We Failed to Spot the Supply Boom:  In 1997 We Failed to Spot the Supply Boom In 1997 We Failed to Spot the Supply Boom:  In 1997 We Failed to Spot the Supply Boom Market Outlook :  Market Outlook Characterized by sudden and sharp property cycles Fragile fundamental Challenge from across the border End of Presentation:  End of Presentation Thank You Q & A

Add a comment

Related presentations

Related pages

ALTON MCCLAIN, 83 vinyl records & CDs found on CDandLP

View all records by ALTON MCCLAIN for sale on CDandLP in LP, CD, 12inch, 7inch format
Read more

Ricerca avanzata

Alton McClain & Destiny Crazy Love 7" Polydor POSP72 EX 1979 Crazy Love/God Said. ... 0 offerte +EUR 6,79 spedizione; Give It Up To Love - MCCLAIN MIGHTY ...
Read more

Recherches affinées

Saisissez un prix minimum et/ou maximum avant de poursuivre. EUR Saisir le prix minimum à EUR Saisir le prix maximum. afficher tout Vendeur Vendeur
Read more

Targeted next-generation sequencing of head and neck ...

Targeted next-generation sequencing of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma ide.
Read more

alton mcclain in vendita | eBay

0 offerte +EUR 20,99 spedizione; Da Regno Unito; ... Alton McClain & Destiny Crazy Love 7" Polydor POSP72 EX 1979 Crazy Love/God Said. EUR 44,56 +EUR 5,48 ...
Read more