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Published on November 26, 2007

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World Regulatory Trends and Challenges for Caspian and Black See Region :  World Regulatory Trends and Challenges for Caspian and Black See Region Jaroslaw K. Ponder Strategy and Policy Unit International Telecommunication Union Advancing in Telecommunications Regulation - 1st Black Sea and Caspian Regulatory Conference – 25-27 May 2006, Istanbul, Turkey Note: The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU. Jaroslaw K. Ponder can be contacted at Jaroslaw.Ponder@itu.int Agenda:  Agenda Trends: The ICT sector Trends: Regulatory environment Necessary actions ICTs: Caspian and Black See Region Policy and Regulatory Challenges Conclusions Trends: ICT Sector:  Trends: ICT Sector Progressing regulatory reform: Pro-competitive policy / Universal service/access… Expansion of mobile industry and the Internet High innovation dynamics Falling prices of the ICTs: Hardware / Software / Services New requirements: Bandwidth Generalized mobility Convergent solutions Open character Trends: Broadband Access:  Trends: Broadband Access T Trends: Broadband Access:  Trends: Broadband Access Broadband prices for the cheapest fifteen economies TeleCommunication Sector in Transition:  TeleCommunication Sector in Transition Meaning and character of communications Voice, Video, Data, SoD New sell and prices strategies coming from IP-enabled flexibility on the operational level NGS: N-play services Falling prices of communication services and access Traditional services lose strategic meaning Personalization and customization Regulation Less regulation / blurred boundaries Migration from vertical to horizontal approach Technological neutrality becomes meaningful Trends: ICT Sector:  Trends: ICT Sector Migration to the IP-environment Fixed telecommunications Incumbents: British Telecom, DT AG, KPN Newcomers: Dialog, Metropolitan Networks Wireless communications Mobile telecommunications: from 2G to 4G WiFi, WiMax Cable TV Broadcasting Service and content providers Strengthened process of convergence Technology Market Services Institutional Regulatory Implications Multi-facility competition Service compet. NGNs as a global issue Technical aspects :  NGNs as a global issue Technical aspects FG NGN SG: 11, 13, 19, 2, 12, 16, 17 IP-enabled NGNs A global issue:  IP-enabled NGNs A global issue Regulatory considerations Three background papers Rulling new and emerging marekts Interconnection in an IP-enabled NGN Environment Universal Service in an IP-enabled NGN Environment Regulatory proceedings National, Regional, International level Study Group 1 NGNs as a national issue Multi-stakeholder approach :  NGNs as a national issue Multi-stakeholder approach Broad framework on interconnections and general regulatory framework United Kingdom: Interconnection and Developing India: Recommendations on Issues pertaining to Next Generation Networks USA: Hearing on network neutrality Focused approach Germany: e.g. IP Interconnection Netherlands: e.g. Emerging markets Advisory forums Australia: Industry Forum to Advise on Convergence Issues Japan: Next Generation Network promotion forum UK: NGN Industry Body India: Joint Consultative Committee & NGN Coordination Committee Needs for a new regulatory paradigm under regional and intl. discussion:  Needs for a new regulatory paradigm under regional and intl. discussion ERG: 2006 Common Positions Principles for IP interconnection Regulatory principles for NGNs CEPT Consultations on interconnection model Many activities related to non-economic regulation CITEL and APEC-TEL Convergence, NGN, VoIP OECD Studies on IP related issues WTO First considerations on Agreement on Basic telecommunications ITU Global discussion / What rules on the IP-enabled NGNs? (March 2006) / Future of Voice (January 2007) New and Emerging markets:  New and Emerging markets SMP concept Fundamental regulatory questions confronted with long term goals of the economic and industrial policy Discussion on implications of the regulatory holidays Relevant markets Wholesale – New access technologies do influence in particular broadband definitions Retail – all market may be redefined New balance between ex-ante regulations and ex post remedies Effectiveness of self correcting forces in a competitive marketplace Interconnection in IP environment:  Interconnection in IP environment Distinctions in periods Transitional and mature Competition oriented regulation It is possible that in NGN environment the intervention in setting the interconnection agreements will be smaller New model? Conflict between technology independence, cost based regulation, and significant market power. For the migration phase zero or low rate model for call termination may be advantageous. In the long term new model (see ECC 2005) with full separation of services provision and connectivity. Open character and reality:  Open character and reality Telco Model versus Internet Model Similar to the internet NGN offers horizontally integrated model with separated NGN services and NGN Transport layer Market structure Very different Who determines the openness Vertically integrated services and network operators together with regulatory obligations Meaning of the contnet providers still underestimated in the discussion Next Generation Universal Service:  Next Generation Universal Service Definition of the universal service and the scope of the services to be included Inclusion of the broadband in Europe triggered very difficult debate Possible change of approach Migration to the universal access approach Unified prices and affordability NGN is much more efficient CAPEX and OPEX up to 40% lower More services on the network Universal service funds Possible sources of financing Customer protection Customer interests protection:  Customer interests protection Universal service and access Consumer emergency calls (E112/E911) Consumer protection and privacy (e.g. SPAM, SPIM) Quality of services Authenticated caller or sender identification Disability assistance Data protection and privacy issues Conclusions :  Conclusions We all build the Information Society together! Conclusions:  Conclusions NGN will bring significant changes for the regulatory framework The changes will be implemented rather in a way of natural evolution then drastic revolution Competition is key to the NGN; on the other hand NGN fosters competition new entrance opportunities for operating companies as well as newcomers / NGN creates new markets and reinforce position of some market players New balance between ex-ante regulations and ex post remedies Conclusions:  Conclusions Effectiveness of self correcting forces in a competitive marketplace The tempo of the NGN deployment depends on the effective regulation Regulatory proceeding determine incentives to invest for both new entrants and incumbents Regulatory policy should take into account the dynamic efficiencies to be achieved in the ICT sector Balance between facility based competition and service based competition should be preserved Implications for the region:  Implications for the region NGNs may develop much faster in countries with poor infrastructure Regulatory harmonization and pro-active participation in the debate on the future regulatory paradigme is crucial It diminishes investment risk that is very high in transition economies anyway Please do not wait and give your voice to this debate! Information and Communication Technologies in Caspian and Black See Region:  Information and Communication Technologies in Caspian and Black See Region We all build the Information Society together! Measuring Opportunities :  Measuring Opportunities Digital Opportunity Index WISR 2006 New ITU’s Series Digital Opportunity Index:  Digital Opportunity Index DOI percentage of population covered by mobile cellular telephony internet users per 100 inhabitants Proportion of households with fixed line telephone mobile cellular tariffs as a percentage of per capita income internet access tariffs as a percentage of per capita income ratio of broadband internet subscribers to internet subscribers ratio of broadband mobile subscribers to mobile internet subscribers mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants proportion of households with Internet access at home mobile internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants proportion of households with a computer Opportunity Utilization Infrastructure Infrastructure Digital Opportunity Index:  Digital Opportunity Index New ITU’s Series Digital Opportunity Index:  Digital Opportunity Index DOI: In-depth analysis:  DOI: In-depth analysis DOI: Use:  DOI: Use Digital Opportunity Utilization:  Digital Opportunity Utilization DOI: Opportunities:  DOI: Opportunities DOI: Infrastructure:  DOI: Infrastructure Challenges for the Countries in Caspian and Black See Region:  Challenges for the Countries in Caspian and Black See Region We all build the Information Society together! Challenges:  Challenges Progress in regulatory reform Pro-competitive policy approach Enabling regulatory environment Infrastructure development, modernization… Voice over Internet Protocol… Mobile telecommunications Dissemination of 2.5G / 2.75G / 3G Mobile Virtual Network Operators Licensing: Emerging technologies Thank you very much for your attention!:  Thank you very much for your attention! Jaroslaw K. Ponder International Telecommunication Union Strategy and Policy Unit E-mail: Jaroslaw.Ponder@itu.int http://www.itu.int/spu Tel: 00 41 22 730 60 65 We all build the Information Society together! Resources :  Resources Full version of this presentation and others focusing on regulation: www.itu.int/osg/spu/presentations/ NGN regulatory and policy resources: http://www.itu.int/osg/spu/ngn/ ngn-policy-regulatory-resources.html ITU activities on NGN: www.itu.int/spu/ngn International Telecommunication Union:  International Telecommunication Union We all build the Information Society together! ITU - International Telecommunication Union:  ITU - International Telecommunication Union The oldest specialized UN agency with more than 140 years of experience in communication sector Headquarters in Geneva plus regional offices ITU staff: more than 750 from more than 80 countries 189 member states, more than 640 sector members ITU Agenda for Change Structure of the ITU ITU-T – Telecom Standardization ITU-R – Radio-communications ITU-D – Development Bureau ITU – International Telecommunication Union:  ITU – International Telecommunication Union ITU’s Strategy and Policy Unit (SPU):  ITU’s Strategy and Policy Unit (SPU) New Initiatives Programme Digital Bridges (2005) Ubiquitous Network Societies (2005) Today’s Networks Tomorrow (2005) What Rules for IP-enabled NGNs? (2006) Digital Transformations in the Information Society (2006) Regulatory Environment for Future Mobile Multimedia Services (2006) Many other activities…

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