Planning for Complexity and the Predictability of Demand | 2014 IBF Supply Chain Planning Conference

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Information about Planning for Complexity and the Predictability of Demand | 2014 IBF...
Business & Mgmt

Published on March 4, 2014

Author: Chainalytics



Presented by Ben YoKell, Principal of the Demand Planning Intelligence Consortium at Chainalytics and Sridhar Bashyam, Director of Supply Chain Planning at Frito Lay North America, on 25 February 2014 during IBF's Supply Chain Planning Conference in Scottsdale, AZ.

Product life cycles are growing shorter, and consumers continue to ask for more choices. For many organizations, the increased number of SKUs and item locations means more complex demand planning. Conventional wisdom says that increased complexity means lower forecast accuracy and larger bias, yet Frito-Lay Inc. has demonstrated otherwise. Taking a closer look at the behavior of demand signals yields a new understanding of demand planning performance expectation and potential. In this session, the presenters will highlight practices they’ve used to build a high-performing demand planning environment, including the use of a data-based analytics service from Chainalytics, which measures portfolio forecastability and quantifies improvement opportunity for specific demand segments.

Attendees will learn:
- How Frito-Lay’s direct-to-store model affects demand planning
- A practical framework for demand segmentation
- Why advanced analytics are key to measuring, understanding, and improving demand planning performance

To learn more about Chainalytics and how the Demand Planning Intelligence Consortium can help to simplify your complexity, visit

To request a PDF of this presentation, simply email

Planning for Complexity & the Predictability of Demand Sridhar Bashyam Director, Supply Chain Frito-Lay North America Ben YoKell Principal, Demand Planning Intelligence Consortium Chainalytics Supply Chain Planning & Forecasting Conference February 23-25, 2014 | Scottsdale, AZ 1

Agenda Company Overview Demand Planning at Frito-Lay North America Demand Planning Benchmarking 2

Agenda Company Overview Demand Planning at Frito-Lay North America Demand Planning Benchmarking 3

PepsiCo Overview 4

Who We Are PepsiCo is a global food and beverage powerhouse. Our broad range of more than 3,000 delicious products offers consumers convenient, nutritious and affordable options in nearly every country around the world. Global Beverages Global Snacks Global Nutrition Performance Brands Scale People more than 22 >200 ~300,000 billion-dollar brands countries & territories employees $65 billion revenue 5

Our History 6

From Seed to Shelf Frito-Lay owns the entire supply chain, so there are significant optimization opportunities. Move Information Before Inventory Raw Materials & Purchased Finished Goods Plant Warehouse Distribution Sales OPS Route Sales Retail Store R Product Flow Visibility to company wide information, enabling optimization and increasing the velocity through each function, while reducing the effort and improving productivity. 7

Our Integrated Supply Chain Statistically Calculated Safety Stock Multi-Echelon Inventory Optimization by JDA Software Production Planning & Scheduling Daily Production Planner by Frito-Lay North America Statistical Forecasting Models Execute & Deliver Base Forecast New Products + Promo Lift + Event Lift Cannibalized Products Discontinued Products Replenishment Planning Transaction Data SAP 8 Supply Chain Planner by JDA Software

Agenda Company Overview Demand Planning at Frito-Lay North America Demand Planning Benchmarking 9

The Whole Truth Every week we send a 100% accurate forecast through the system… …Sales just sells the wrong amount. 10

Demand Signal Threading in a DSD System 3+ Weeks Out 11 Week Of

FLNA Forecasting Facts Number of Regions 13 Avg. Number of SKUs ~800 Lowest Level Intersections ~8.5 Million Historical Sales & Promotion Data 3 Years Forecast Bucket Weekly Forecast Horizon 1 Year Forecast Frequency Once a Week Duration of Forecasting Process ~60 Hours Sales forecasted into the store R Plant 12 Distribution DC Route Sales Retail Store

Frito Lay DP SAS Solution Historical Sales & Causal Data Causal Data  Current Functionality Promotion enrollments by account – – – SAS Promo Lift  SAS Holiday Lift SAS Base Forecast Statistical Forecast Planner Adjust using DP UI Final Forecast Supply Chain Planning 13 Price point Duration Days in week Events: Holidays, quarter close, seasonal activities

Delivering the Final Forecast is a Collaborative Effort Product Supply Sales  Input of accurate and timely promo enrollments  Owns the signal  Notification of non-price point driven activity  Capacity and volume push  Execution Region Finance Sales Ops  Forecast feedback via weekly calls with replenishment planners  Aligning DP forecast to the organization’s financial forecast Demand Planning Plants  Forecast feedback from plant-based replenishment planners 14  Hold Key Account Managers accountable for accurate and timely promo enrollments

Demand Planning Benchmarking Benefits of Benchmarking  Accuracy and bias benchmarking vs. relevant demand  Use of demand segmentation and forecastability concepts – Region accuracy target setting – Assessing opportunities for accuracy improvements “How am I doing overall?” “How difficult is my portfolio to plan to for?” “How well should I be doing for my level of portfolio difficulty?” “How well could I be doing for my level of portfolio difficulty?” “Where should I focus my energy and attention?” 15

Agenda Company Overview Demand Planning at Frito-Lay North America Demand Planning Benchmarking 16

Demand Planning Intelligence Consortium Conventional Benchmarks Demand Planning Intelligence Consortium Questionnaire-based Data and analytics-based  Participants self-report forecast accuracy however they measure it, which varies  Reports are typically annual  Level of aggregation is very high  Limited comparative analysis  Best practices ID’d without accounting for differences in portfolio forecastability 49% 33% PERSONAL CARE 13% HOME CARE 5% 17 FOOD & BEVERAGE PET CARE VS.  Standardized transactional data collection and computational approach by unbiased 3rd party  Reports are periodic and repeating  Level of benchmarking is highly granular  Provides understanding of drivers and causes  Best practices ID’d accounting for differences in portfolio forecastability DPIC Statistics     Industry: Consumer Packaged Goods Geography: North America and Europe Members: ~ 40 Businesses Item-Locations: ~ 500,000

Segmented Benchmarking & Analytics Nearly 1,250 Forecast Accuracy and Bias Benchmarks 18

How difficult is my environment to forecast? Segmentation provides an understanding of each portfolio, which drives demand planning performance potential as much (or more) as complexity. 19

How am I doing? Forecastability-Based Intelligence Forecast Accuracy Forecast Accuracy Conventional DPIC Forecastability Index™ Forecastability yields a very different conclusion! 20

How well could I be doing? Targets can be set with more realism by customizing for the specific demand portfolio, and should be differentiated: “One Size Does Not Fit All.” 21

Some Frito-Lay DPIC Findings  Frito-Lay is a top performer, both overall and in segmented analytics results  This is in contrast to assumptions around high complexity  Top performance results stems from good process, great execution, and relatively high demand forecastability Forecastability + Process Design & Execution > Complexity  Room still exists for improvement; even a top overall performer has segments of the business with opportunity 22

What’s Next for Frito-Lay Demand Planning  Continue our membership in the consortium – Work on opportunity areas presented by survey results  Add new causals to our SAS models  Leverage point of sale data  Continue to explore new technologies such as demand sensing  Grow our modeling team into a Forecasting Center of Excellence (COE) 23

Thank you! Additional Information? Email Visit Connect 24

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