Phillips 66 Fourth-Quarter Earnings Conference Call

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Information about Phillips 66 Fourth-Quarter Earnings Conference Call

Published on January 29, 2016

Author: investor_phillips66

Source: slideshare.net

1. PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER CONFERENCE CALL January 29, 2016

2. This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. Words and phrases such as “is anticipated,” “is estimated,” “is expected,” “is planned,” “is scheduled,” “is targeted,” “believes,” “intends,” “objectives,” “projects,” “strategies” and similar expressions are used to identify such forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements relating to Phillips 66’s operations (including joint venture operations) are based on management’s expectations, estimates and projections about the company, its interests and the energy industry in general on the date this presentation was prepared. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements include fluctuations in NGL, crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas prices, and refining, marketing and petrochemical margins; unexpected changes in costs for constructing, modifying or operating our facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing, refining or transporting our products; lack of, or disruptions in, adequate and reliable transportation for our NGL, crude oil, natural gas and refined products; potential liability from litigation or for remedial actions, including removal and reclamation obligations, under environmental regulations; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting Phillips 66’s businesses generally as set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Phillips 66 is under no obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures at the end of the presentation materials or in the “Investors” section of our website. CAUTIONARY STATEMENT 2

3. 3 EXECUTING STRATEGY

4. 4 OVERVIEW 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings $710 MM Adjusted EPS $1.31 Operating cash flow excluding working capital $1.8 B Capital expenditures and investments 1 $1.0 B Shareholder distributions 2 $704 MM DCP equity contribution $1.5 B (2) Shareholder distributions include dividends and share repurchases (1) Capital expenditures and investments exclude DCP equity contribution of $1.5 B

5. 1,647 710 (49) (90) (676) (117) (5) 3Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing & Specialties Corporate & Other 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings $MM 42 (117)376182 227 ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2015 VS. 3Q 2015 5

6. 6 MIDSTREAM OVERVIEW 4Q 2015 Transportation Higher volumes NGL Sweeny Fractionator One in production PSXP Earnings contribution up 19% DCP Midstream Low commodity prices 2015 Adjusted ROCE 5%

7. 91 42 1 (34) (16) 3Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings Transportation NGL DCP Midstream 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings $MM MIDSTREAM 4Q 2015 VS. 3Q 2015 78 (2) (34) 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings 7

8. 8 CHEMICALS OVERVIEW 4Q 2015 Olefins & Polyolefins Lower cash chain margins Specialties, Aromatics & Styrenics Planned turnaround impacts 2015 Adjusted ROCE 19%

9. 272 182 (80) (8) (2) 3Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings Olefins & Polyolefins Specialties, Aromatics & Styrenics Other 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings $MM CHEMICALS 4Q 2015 VS. 3Q 2015 9 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings 181 (8)9

10. 10 REFINING OVERVIEW 4Q 2015 Realized margin $9.41/BBL Market capture 74% Crude utilization 94% Clean product yield 85% 2015 Adjusted ROCE 19%

11. 1,052 376 (96) (138) (251) (191) 3Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings Atlantic Basin / Europe Gulf Coast Central Corridor Western / Pacific 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings $MM REFINING 4Q 2015 VS. 3Q 2015 11 97 121147 11 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings

12. 12.77 9.41 (2.13) (2.19) 1.28 (0.32) Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products Feedstock Other Realized Margin WORLDWIDE REFINING $/BBL REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2015 12 Average Market Crude $43.31/BBL 94% Crude Capacity Utilization 74% Market Capture

13. 13 MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES OVERVIEW 4Q 2015 Marketing Favorable global margins Specialties Lower margins 2015 Adjusted ROCE 35%

14. 344 227 (93) (24) 3Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings Marketing & Other Specialties 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings $MM MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES 4Q 2015 VS. 3Q 2015 14 198 29 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings

15. (112) (117) (4) (1) 3Q 2015 Adjusted Net Loss Net Interest Expense Corporate Overhead & Other 4Q 2015 Adjusted Net Loss $MM CORPORATE AND OTHER 4Q 2015 VS. 3Q 2015 15

16. 16 OVERVIEW 2015 Adjusted Earnings $4.2 B Adjusted EPS $7.67 Operating cash flow excluding working capital $5.9 B Capital expenditures and investments1 $4.3 B Shareholder distributions2 $2.7 B Adjusted net debt-to-capital ratio3 17% Adjusted ROCE 14% (2) Shareholder distributions include dividends and share repurchases (3) Adjusted net debt-to-capital ratio excludes the impacts of PSXP (1) Capital expenditures and investments exclude DCP equity contribution of $1.5 B DCP equity contribution $1.5 B

17. 3,782 4,193 (260) (257) 951 65 (88) 2014 Adjusted Earnings Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing & Specialties Corporate & Other 2015 Adjusted Earnings 2015 Adjusted Earnings $MM 248 (481)2,527952 947 ADJUSTED EARNINGS 2015 VS. 2014 17 Adjusted EPS $6.62 Adjusted EPS $7.67

18. 5.2 3.1 1.5 (4.3) (1.5) 5.9 (0.2) (0.8) (5.8) (2.7) December 2014 Cash Balance* CFO (excluding working capital) Working Capital PSXP Bond & Equity Proceeds Debt Repayment Capital Expenditures & Investments Shareholder Distributions December 2015 Cash Balance* $B CASH FLOW 2015 18 * Includes cash and cash equivalents DCP Equity Contribution

19. 19 Global Olefins & Polyolefins utilization Mid-90% Refining crude utilization Mid-90% Depreciation and amortization $1.2 B Effective income tax rate Mid-30% Corporate & Other costs (after-tax) $120 MM - $125 MM OUTLOOK Refining turnaround expenses (pre-tax) ~$150 MM 2016 Refining turnaround expenses (pre-tax) $525 MM - $575 MM Corporate & Other costs (after-tax) $480 MM - $500 MM 1Q 2016

20. PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER 2015 CONFERENCE CALL Questions and Answers

21. PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER 2015 CONFERENCE CALL Appendix

22. ESTIMATED SENSITIVITIES 2016 22Sensitivities shown above are independent and are only valid within a limited price range Midstream - DCP (net to Phillips 66) 10¢/Gal Increase in NGL price 25 $1/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price 20 $10/BBL Increase in WTI price 10 Chemicals - CPChem (net to Phillips 66) 1¢/Lb Increase in Chain Margin (Ethylene, Polyethylene, NAO) 35 Worldwide Refining $1/BBL Increase in Gasoline Margin 230 $1/BBL Increase in Distillate Margin 200 $1/BBL Widening LLS / Maya Differential (LLS less Maya) 45 $1/BBL Widening WTI / WCS Differential (WTI less WCS) 40 $1/BBL Widening WTI / WTS Differential (WTI less WTS) 20 $1/BBL Widening LLS / Medium Sour Differential (LLS less Medium Sour) 15 $1/BBL Widening ANS / WCS Differential (ANS less WCS) 10 10¢/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price (10) Impacts due to Actual Crude Feedstock Differing from Feedstock Assumed in Market Indicators: Annual Net Income $MM

23. 22.4 22.0 22.6 23.2 24.0 23.9 22.0 21.6 21.8 22.4 23.2 23.1 6.1 8.6 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 6.1 8.6 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.1 4.8 3.1 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.0 4.7 3.0 21% 28% 28% 28% 27% 27% 22% 28% 26% 26% 25% 25% 2013 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 2013 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 Equity $B Debt $B Cash & Cash Equivalents $B Debt-to-Capital 20%-30% CAPITAL STRUCTURE 2013 – 2015 23 Consolidated PSX Excluding PSXP

24. 12.11 7.18 (1.95) (1.07) (1.96) 0.05 Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products Feedstock Other Realized Margin ATLANTIC BASIN / EUROPE $/BBL REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2015 24 Market 3:2:1 – Dated Brent / Gasoline 83.7 RBOB NYH / Diesel 15ppm NYH Brent $43.69/BBL 101% Crude Capacity Utilization 59% Market Capture

25. 8.56 8.59 (1.42) (2.74) 2.57 1.62 Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products Feedstock Other Realized Margin GULF COAST $/BBL REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2015 25 Market 3:2:1 – LLS / Gasoline 85 CBOB / Diesel 61 8ppm LLS $43.57/BBL 93% Crude Capacity Utilization 100% Market Capture

26. 13.82 11.43 (1.49) (2.68) 3.20 (1.42) Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products Feedstock Other Realized Margin CENTRAL CORRIDOR $/BBL REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2015 26 Market 3:2:1 – WTI / Gasoline Unl Sub Octane Group 3 / ULSD Group 3 WTI $42.10/BBL 93% Crude Capacity Utilization 83% Market Capture

27. 21.03 12.51 (4.08) (2.44) 1.77 (3.77) Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products Feedstock Other Realized Margin WESTERN / PACIFIC $/BBL REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2015 27 Market 3:2:1 – ANS Spot / Los Angeles CARBOB / Los Angeles No. 2 CARB ANS $43.79/BBL 87% Crude Capacity Utilization 59% Market Capture

28. 913 710 (55) (88) 54 (97) (17) 4Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing & Specialties Corporate & Other 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings $MM 42 (117)376182 227 ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014 28

29. 97 42 25 (57) (23) 4Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings Transportation NGL DCP Midstream 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings $MM MIDSTREAM 4Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014 29 78 (2) (34) 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings

30. 270 182 (67) (18) (3) 4Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings Olefins & Polyolefins Specialties, Aromatics & Styrenics Other 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings $MM CHEMICALS 4Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014 30 181 (8)9 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings

31. 322 376 (92) 155 (78) 69 4Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings Atlantic Basin / Europe Gulf Coast Central Corridor Western / Pacific 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings $MM REFINING 4Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014 31 97 121147 11 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings

32. 324 227 (58) (39) 4Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings Marketing & Other Specialties 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings $MM MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES 4Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014 32 198 29 4Q 2015 Adjusted Earnings

33. (100) (117) (3) (14) 4Q 2014 Adjusted Net Loss Net Interest Expense Corporate Overhead & Other 4Q 2015 Adjusted Net Loss $MM CORPORATE AND OTHER 4Q 2015 VS. 4Q 2014 33

34. 4.8 3.1 (0.3) (1.0) 1.8 (2.5) (0.7) (1.5) September 30 Cash Balance* CFO (excluding working capital) Working Capital Capital Expenditures & Investments Shareholder Distributions December 31 Cash Balance* $B CASH FLOW 4Q 2015 34 * Includes cash and cash equivalents DCP Equity Contribution

35. 35 NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q Phillips 66 Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 4,227$ 650$ 1,578$ 4,762$ 1,147$ Adjustments: Asset dispositions (265) - (18) (494) (385) Pension settlement expense 49 3 46 - - Impairments - - - 131 131 Impairments by equity affiliates 256 108 22 69 - Certain tax impacts (84) (84) - - - Pending claims and settlements (23) - 19 (10) (10) Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments 33 33 - 30 30 Discontinued Operations - - - (706) - Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 4,193$ 710$ 1,647$ 3,782$ 913$ Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 Per Share of Common Stock (dollars) 7.73$ 1.20$ 2.90$ 8.33$ 2.05$ Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 Per Share of Common Stock (dollars) 7.67$ 1.31$ 3.02$ 6.62$ 1.63$ Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2015 2014

36. 36 NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q Midstream Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 13$ (77)$ 101$ 507$ 96$ Adjustments: Pension settlement expense 6 - 6 - - Impairments by equity affiliates 232 104 2 - - Asset dispositions (18) - (18) - - Certain tax impacts 15 15 - - - Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments - - - 1 1 Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 248$ 42$ 91$ 508$ 97$ Chemicals Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 962$ 212$ 252$ 1,137$ 267$ Adjustments: Impairments by equity affiliates 24 4 20 69 - Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments - - - 3 3 Certain tax impacts (34) (34) - - - Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 952$ 182$ 272$ 1,209$ 270$ Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2015 2014

37. 37 NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q Refining Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 2,555$ 410$ 1,003$ 1,771$ 517$ Adjustments: Asset dispositions (5) - - (369) (369) Impairments - - - 131 131 Certain tax impacts (69) (69) - - - Pension settlement expense 32 2 30 - - Pending claims and settlements (19) - 19 17 17 Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments 33 33 - 26 26 Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 2,527$ 376$ 1,052$ 1,576$ 322$ Marketing & Specialties Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 1,187$ 231$ 338$ 1,034$ 367$ Adjustments: Asset dispositions (242) - - (125) (16) Pension settlement expense 7 1 6 - - Pending claims and settlements - - - (27) (27) Certain tax impacts (5) (5) - - - Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 947$ 227$ 344$ 882$ 324$ Corporate and Other Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 (490)$ (126)$ (116)$ (393)$ (100)$ Adjustments: Certain tax impacts 9 9 - - - Pension settlement expense 4 - 4 - - Pending claims and settlements (4) - - - - Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 (481)$ (117)$ (112)$ (393)$ (100)$ Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2015 2014

38. 38 NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q Midstream - Transportation Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 288$ 81$ 77$ 233$ 53$ Adjustments: Certain tax impacts (3) (3) - - - Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 285$ 78$ 77$ 233$ 53$ Midstream - NGL Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 49$ 1$ 26$ 139$ 55$ Adjustments: Pension settlement expense 6 - 6 - - Certain tax impacts (3) (3) - - - Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 52$ (2)$ 32$ 139$ 55$ Midstream - DCP Midstream Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 (324)$ (159)$ (2)$ 135$ (12)$ Adjustments: Impairments by equity affiliates 232 104 2 - - Asset dispositions (18) - (18) - - Certain tax impacts 21 21 - - - Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments - - - 1 1 Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 (89)$ (34)$ (18)$ 136$ (11)$ Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2015 2014

39. 39 NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q Refining - Atlantic Basin / Europe Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 569$ 186$ 180$ 198$ 57$ Adjustments: Pension settlement expense 9 1 8 - - Pending claims and settlements (33) - 5 1 1 Impariments - - - 131 131 Certain tax impacts (90) (90) - - - Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 455$ 97$ 193$ 330$ 189$ Refining - Gulf Coast Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 551$ 128$ 269$ 252$ (11)$ Adjustments: Pension settlement expense 11 1 10 - - Pending claims and settlements 6 - 6 3 3 Certain tax impacts 18 18 - - - Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 586$ 147$ 285$ 255$ (8)$ Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2015 2014

40. 40 NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q Refining - Central Corridor Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 857$ 86$ 360$ 967$ 182$ Adjustments: Pension settlement expense 7 - 7 - - Pending claims and settlements 5 - 5 2 2 Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments 33 33 - 15 15 Certain tax impacts 2 2 - - - Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 904$ 121$ 372$ 984$ 199$ Refining - Western / Pacific Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 578$ 10$ 194$ 354$ 289$ Adjustments: Pension settlement expense 5 - 5 - - Pending claims and settlements 3 - 3 11 11 Asset dispositions (5) - - (369) (369) Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments - - - 11 11 Certain tax impacts 1 1 - - - Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 582$ 11$ 202$ 7$ (58)$ Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2015 2014

41. 41 NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q Marketing & Specialties - Marketing & Other Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 1,004$ 199$ 285$ 836$ 299$ Adjustments: Asset dispositions (242) - - (125) (16) Pension settlement expense 7 1 6 - - Pending claims and settlements - - - (27) (27) Certain tax impacts (2) (2) - - - Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 767$ 198$ 291$ 684$ 256$ Marketing & Specialties - Specialties Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 183$ 32$ 53$ 198$ 68$ Adjustments: Certain tax impacts (3) (3) - - - Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 180$ 29$ 53$ 198$ 68$ Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 20142015

42. 2015 YTD Phillips 66 Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing & Specialties Numerator ($MM) Net Income 4,280 74 962 2,555 1,187 After-tax interest expense 201 - - - - GAAP ROCE earnings 4,481 74 962 2,555 1,187 Special Items (34) 235 (10) (28) (240) Adjusted ROCE earnings 4,447 309 952 2,527 947 Denominator ($MM) GAAP average capital employed* 31,749 6,793 4,921 13,582 2,735 2015 Adjusted ROCE 14% 5% 19% 19% 35% 2015 GAAP ROCE 14% 1% 20% 19% 43% 42* Total equity plus total debt NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

43. 43 NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS Phillips 66 Consolidated Phillips 66 Partners Adjusted Phillips 66 Total Debt 8,887$ 1,091$ 7,796$ Total Equity 23,938$ 809$ 23,129$ Debt-to-Capital Ratio 27% 25% Total Cash 3,074$ 48$ 3,026$ Net-Debt-to-Capital Ratio 20% 17% 2015 4Q Millions of Dollars

44. 44 NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS Growth Sustaining Total Capital expenditures and investments Midstream * 2,801$ 1,656$ 4,457$ Chemicals -$ -$ -$ Refining 201$ 868$ 1,069$ Marketing & Specialties 66$ 56$ 122$ Corporate and Other 10$ 106$ 116$ Total 3,078$ 2,686$ 5,764$ * Midstream Sustaining expenditures includes DCP equity contribution of $1.5 B Millions of Dollars 2015

45. 45 NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS Millions of Dollars 2015 4Q Effective Tax Rates Income before taxes 832$ Special items 226$ Adjusted income before taxes 1,058$ Provision for taxes 166$ Special items 166$ Adjusted provision for taxes 332$ GAAP effective tax rate 20% Adjusted effective tax rate 31%

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