Phillip securities market outlook seminar market technical outlook

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Published on March 9, 2014

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Market Technical Outlook by Kenneth Koh Phillip Securities on 20Sep2013

Market Technical Outlook A closer look 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Economic Snapshot World Equities Gold S&P500 Intermarket Analysis Sector Rotation China Singapore A “not so secret” secret Kenneth Koh Markets & Equities Analyst Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributedPhillip Securities presentation. Pte Ltd to parties outside the Research Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. Prepared: 20thSeptember 2013

Disclaimer • • • • This presentation is prepared by Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (“Phillip Securities Research”). By going through this presentation, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This presentation shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities Research shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this presentation. The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities Research has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this presentation is subject to change, and Phillip Securities Research shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Securities Research be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Disclaimer Non-applicability of Section 27 of the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) of Singapore and the MAS Notice on Recommendations on Investment Products • • • • Section 27 of the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) of Singapore and the MAS Notice on Recommendations on Investment Products (FAA-N01) do not apply in respect of this presentation. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. This presentation should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this presentation has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any product described in this material is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products which may be described in this presentation involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks. Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in this research should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such security. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Disclosure of Interest • • Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in Singapore and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities (including sponsorship, financial advisory or underwriting activities), corporate banking or securities trading activities. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, may have participated in or invested in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this presentation, and may have performed services for or solicited business from such issuers. Additionally, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, may have provided significant advice or investment services to such companies and investments or related investments as may be mentioned in this presentation. To the extent permitted by law, Phillips Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, may at any time engage in any of the above activities as set out above or otherwise hold a material interest in respect of companies and investments or related investments which may be mentioned in this presentation. Accordingly, information may be available to Phillips Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, which is not reflected in this material, and Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its presentation. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, may have issued other material that is inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, the contents of this material. Risk Warning: Please carefully consider the ETF's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses before investing. This ETFs may be complex in nature, investing involves risk including possible loss of principal. Before investing, PSPL recommends investors to read the Prospectus from the respective Issuer's website carefully. PSPL does not provide any advice on the funds. ETFs are Specified Investment Products (SIPs) and retail customers are subject to relevant assessments for trading/investing in SIPs. Click here for more detailed risks of ETFs. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Macro conditions still suggest (Longer Term) 1. 2. 3. 4. OW Equities (no change, maintain) OW Commodities (9th Sep 13 OW from NW) UW Gold (maintain UW since 25th Oct 12) UW +10yr US Treasuries (maintain UW since 4th Jan 13) … after the market has absorbed the postponing of bond tapering news Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 5

US Economic Fundamentals keep getting better • • • • US New Orders: Capex non-defense ex-aircraft (Source: BEA, CEIC, PSR est) Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 200 Jan-05 300 Jan-04 12mrs US Govt Budget T4Q (US$b saar) Jan-03 400 %y-y 12mma Jan-02 500 %y-y 3mma Jan-01 600 US Non-Farm Payrolls (Source: CEIC, PSR est) Jan-00 700 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-02 Jan-01 Jan-00 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -1200 -1400 -1600 -1800 -2000 Jan-04 US Trade Deficit (Source: CEIC, PSR est) Jan-03 800 Jan-02 %y-y 3mma Jan-01 %q-q sa 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.5% -4.0% -4.5% -5.0% Jan-00 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-02 Jan-01 Jan-00 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% -16% -20% -24% -28% -32% Forward looking core-business investment is robust Employment situation is on a very steady trend despite July’s below expectations print Trade deficit is narrowing (shale energy) Govt budget deficit narrowing as the sequester works its way thru the budget (Source: BEA, CEIC, PSR est) Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 6

US Corp Profit still trending higher Likely to guide S&P500 along with it 12mma 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 US Corp. Profits Aft. Tax (US$b, saar) (Source: BEA, CEIC, PSR est) Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 T4Q p/e F4Q p/e S&P500 24 22 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 20 18 16 14 ETF: SPY.NYSE (Source: Bloomberg) 12 10 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 7

China’s slowdown has bottomed out (Reiterate Buy ETF 83188.HK) • • • • %y-y (3mma, 12mma) volume and freight moved in China have been steadily picking up Inflation is not an issue hence no worries about interest rate rises Industrial Profit growth returning CSI 300 has put in a double bottom in the weekly, and valuations are rock bottom (BUY 83188.HK!) 9% China Tpt & IP by Volume (Source: CEIC) 40% 35% CHINA CPI (Source: CEIC) 8% %y-y %y-y 12mma 7% 30% 6% 25% 5% 20% 4% 15% 3% 10% 2% %y-y 3mma 5% 1% %y-y 12mma 0% Source: Bloomberg 27 T4Q p/e Fwd p/e CSI300 25 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 -2% Jan-04 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 -1% 29 China Industrial Profit (Source: CEIC) 5750 5250 4750 %y-y 3mma 23 %y-y 12mma 21 3750 19 3250 17 2750 15 2250 13 1750 11 1250 9 750 4250 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 -10% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Jan-04 Jan-03 -5% Jan-03 0% Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 8

Global rebound on the cards Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Japan Mfg PMI Source: Bloomberg Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 • Along with the US and China, the EZ and JP are both picking up • Altogether, that 75% of global output • GLOBAL PMIs suggest a global growth rebound 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 Jan-06 Source: Bloomberg Jan-05 EZ Svc PMI Jan-04 EZ Mfg PMI 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 Jan-03 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 JPM Global Comp PMI JPM Global Mfg PMI JPM Global Svc PMI Source: Bloomberg Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 9

Global Growth to rebound? Gold corroborates (Short SPDR Gold ETF O87.SGX) • • • • • US growth picking up US trade deficit narrows US govt budget deficit narrowing US Corp Profit still trending higher Macro conditions good for growth, good for the US$. What for hold Gold?? 90 Dollar Index Gold 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 30wkma 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 (Source: Bloomberg) 70 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 10

Global Growth to rebound? US Bond Markets corroborate • • • • Strengthening US economy would cause Portfolios to cycle further out of bonds into stocks This has already been happening with S&P500 outperforming Treasuries this year (see Technical Analysis later) Prospect of end of QE does 2 things (1) the largest buyer – the Fed – is going to buy less and eventually stop 4q14 (2) signal that the US economy is strong enough to withstand QE tapering, hence stocks remain more attractive than bonds. As the short-dated end of the curve is anchored by the Fed Funds Rate, the long end will be sold, hence short 10yr Treasuries with ETF TBT.US US Treasury 10yr - 2yr (L) 3.0 10yr Yield 2yr Yield 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 (0.5) 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 (0.5) (1.0) Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 11

Straits Times Index – Bull market not over SG Corporate Earnings coming back! STI T4Q P/E F4Q P/E 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 Jan-12 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 40% Source: Bloomberg CORPORATE EARNINGS %q-q Source: Bloomberg 30% SG 20% 10% 0% Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 -10% -20% Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 12

FTSE ALL-World ex-US • Overweight Emerging Markets • Breakout on better relative strength vs. S&P500 leader Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Gold Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Gold • Gold is bearish longer term • Gold is bullish short term • Major resistance zone between 1500-1600 and is a major selling opportunity On bear market, RSI resistance is around 70 Weekly MACD cross, short term up cycle The recent gold surge is not accompanied by outperformance of gold miners. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 15

• Gold is bearish longer term • Gold is bullish short term • Recent bullish candle is setting up a potential ascending triangle. • A break above 1400 implies further upside to 1500 – 1550 • A break below 1300 implies further downside to 1200. Daily MACD cross, short term up cycle Other indicators are not showing any unusual strength, I expect the long term downtrend to continue … after possible short term move. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

S&P500 (daily) 9 Sep 2013 Short term correction until proven otherwise The “otherwise” is starting to show some hints. $RUT:$SPX $NYMO is encouraging. But indecision candle at resistance. To trade: - US SP 500 Index USD5 CFD - ETF: SPX.AMEX Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 17

S&P500 (daily) (Today) $RUT:$SPX is normal. $NYMO and RSI are getting overbought. Longer term bullish Short term consolidation is possible To trade: - US SP 500 Index USD5 CFD - ETF: SPX.AMEX Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

S&P500: Breadth Breadth indicators all behaving normally VIX is on the downtrend and hasn’t hit “complacent levels” yet. Still room to run. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 19

Industrials Sector (Update). Indecision on support Weak indecision candle on support ? If price can stay above $44.8 this week and next, it implies further upside S&P500: Keep an eye on industrials (they are the present sector leader). If industrials confirms the break below support, the S&P may have more short term sell down. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 20

Industrials Sector (Update). Pullback very probable •Short term objective on 46.0 breakout achieved •With Bearish daily star formation •RSI is oversold •A retracement to 46.5 is possible This corroborates a possible small correction in the S&P500 However, the good relative strength of all breadth indicators imply that long term trend is still up. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 21

Sector Glances Financials start to turn down. Cyclicals peaking. Industrials leading. Materials and Energy turning up. Cyclicals  Industrials  Materials  Energy (sequence of turning up) More evidence of stage 4-5 business cycle (early-mid expansion) Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 22

Sector trends Tech, Industrials, Materials and Energy still outperforming Staples and Utilities. Implies between stage 4 and 5 of market cycle. Good to be in Sectors that shows improving relative strength momentum (top left) leading into good relative strength (top right). Long Oil Service Sector (OIH). (See later) Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 23

Sector Glance Relative Performance vs S&P500 Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 24

Sector Rotation … this also corroborates our assumption of Stage 4 of the economic cycle and materials and energy sector is to be favored. Phase 4 strategy: Short Bonds Long Stocks Long Commodities Short Treasuries: TBT Long Commodities: S&P GSCI (ETF GSG.US) Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 25

2. Intermarket Relationships Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 26

Intermarket Relationship Short Treasuries: (ETF TBT) Long Commodities: S&P GSCI (ETF GSG.US) Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 27

Intermarket Relationship Short Treasuries: (ETF TBT) Long Commodities: S&P GSCI (ETF GSG.US) Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 28

Long Commodities – ETF GSG.US • • • Global Growth is picking up US, EZ, JP PMIs are picking up, China we saw is improving Altogether, that 75% of global output Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Japan Mfg PMI Source: Bloomberg Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 US Services PMI Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-02 Jan-01 US Mfg PMI 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 Jan-05 Source: Bloomberg EZ Svc PMI Jan-04 EZ Mfg PMI Jan-03 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 (Source: CEIC, PSR est) Jan-00 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 Jan-05 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 JPM Global Comp PMI JPM Global Mfg PMI JPM Global Svc PMI Source: Bloomberg Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 29

GSCI Index Fund Breakout on high volume Target Price: $37 Cut loss price: $32 Need to see if next week can reclaim back above the breakout point Long Commodities: S&P GSCI (ETF GSG.US) Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 30

Oil Service Sector Energy is going to lead. Oil service sector breakout on improving relative strength. Target Price: $52 Cut loss price: $44 Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 31

2. Intermarket and Sector Analysis Phase 4 strategy: Short Bonds Long Stocks (Materials, Energy) Long Industrial Commodities Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 32

Short 10yr US Treasuries – ETF TBT.US • • • • Strengthening US economy would cause Portfolios to cycle further out of bonds into stocks This has already been happening with S&P500 outperforming Treasuries this year (see Technical Analysis later) Prospect of end of QE does 2 things (1) the largest buyer – the Fed – is going to buy less and eventually stop 4q14 (2) signal that the US economy is strong enough to withstand QE tapering, hence stocks remain more attractive than bonds. As the short-dated end of the curve is anchored by the Fed Funds Rate, the long end will be sold, hence short 10yr Treasuries with ETF TBT.US 3.0 US Treasury 10yr - 2yr (L) 10yr Yield 2yr Yield 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 (0.5) 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 (0.5) (1.0) Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 33

Treasuries Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

10-Year US Treasury Note Price • If price breaks out of 125.0, it implies further short term upside. Price target is 126.0126.5. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

$TNX Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Downside Target for Bonds (based on spread) • Assumes short term rates remained unchanged. • The probably target for the $TNX (10 yr treasury) is between 3.3 and 3.9% (33 and 39 here) • If short term rates increase, this increases the 10 year treasuries yield ceiling. • TBT (Double short ETF) Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 37

TBT Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

CSI300 (23 Aug 2013) Potential double bottom base? Trade: ETF: FTSE ChinaA50 or 83188.HK Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 39

CSI300 (9 Sep 2013) Potential double bottom base of multi year bull? Trade: FTSE China A50 USD1 CFD Potential breakout of ascending triangle Potential breakout of resistance line from 2012 Weekly MACD has crossed – implying an intermediate cycle move A successful breakout implies a target of between 2500 and 2600 Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 40

CSI300 Retracement to breakout point is a good buying point Breakout from ascending triangle Gap fill correction Weekly MACD has crossed – implying an intermediate cycle move Improving macro in China corroborates a longer up move after consolidation. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

STI (weekly) (5 Aug 2013) Consolidating at resistance Still negotiating the Resistance (R) at 3260, as expected price stalled at 3259 If there is another leg down, the first objective is the key support zone between 2930 and 3110. This is the level of the clusters of consolidation patterns in Feb and July 12, a 50% to 61.8% retracement of the impulse wave from Dec 11 to Apr 13, as well as the 0.618 to 1 ratio of the last down move starting in Apr 13. A price retracement to the blue support zone should be seen as a good buying opportunity. NEXT Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 42

STI • Longer term bullish • Short term may have pullback Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

STI • Most likely scenario: pull back till 3200 • Further upside is implied if price can clear the resistance at 3277 • We are biased to the upside due to improving macro economics • A break up of 3277 implies a target back to 3450 Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Macro conditions still suggest (longer term) 1. 2. 3. 4. OW Equities (no change, maintain) Technicals: short pullback possible OW Commodities (9th Sep 13 OW from NW): Technicals: wait and see UW Gold (maintain UW since 25th Oct 12) Technicals: wait and see UW +10yr US Treasuries (maintain UW since 4th Jan 13) Technicals: wait and see … after the market has absorbed the postponing of bond tapering news Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 45

Disclaimer This presentation is provided to you for general information only and does not constitute a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment products mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of you acting based on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the units in any fund and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Access to services and your account may be affected by market conditions, system performance and other reasons. The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which PSPL has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this presentation is subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. You may wish to seek advice from a qualified financial adviser, pursuant to a separate engagement, before making a commitment to purchase any of the investment products mentioned. In the event that you choose not to seek advice from a qualified financial adviser, you should consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest and we do not offer advice in this regard unless mandated to do so by way of a separate engagement. You are advised to read the Conditions governing Phillip Securities Trading Accounts and the Risk Disclosure Statement carefully before investing in this product. Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197201035Z © PhillipCapital 2013. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents. 46

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