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pbr04 forecasts

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Published on June 17, 2007

Author: Moorehead

Source: authorstream.com

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Uncertainty in the forecasts:  Uncertainty in the forecasts Carl Emmerson Previous HMT forecasting errors:  Previous HMT forecasting errors Source: HM Treasury (2003) Previous HMT forecasting errors:  Previous HMT forecasting errors Source: HM Treasury (2003) Errors in borrowing forecasts:  Errors in borrowing forecasts Source: HM Treasury (2003); Emmerson, Frayne and Love (2004) % of GDP Errors in borrowing forecasts:  Errors in borrowing forecasts Source: HM Treasury (2003); Emmerson, Frayne and Love (2004) % of GDP Uncertainty over path of PSNB:  Uncertainty over path of PSNB Forecast errors are normally distributed Average error is zero But forecasts are based on ‘cautious assumptions’ Accuracy is the same as past This will understate true forecasting errors as previous errors not adjusted for subsequent policy changes Uncertainty over path of PSNB:  Uncertainty over path of PSNB Source: IFS calculations Uncertainty over path of PSNB:  Uncertainty over path of PSNB Source: IFS calculations Uncertainty over path of PSNB:  Uncertainty over path of PSNB Source: IFS calculations Uncertainty over path of PSNB:  Uncertainty over path of PSNB Source: IFS calculations Uncertainty over path of PSNB:  Uncertainty over path of PSNB Source: IFS calculations Uncertainty over path of CBS:  Uncertainty over path of CBS Forecast errors are normally distributed Average error is zero But forecasts are based on ‘cautious assumptions’ Accuracy is the same as past This will understate true forecasting errors as previous errors not adjusted for subsequent policy changes Assume similar errors in forecasting current budget surplus and net borrowing Account for correlation in errors from all forecasts made at the same time Will the golden rule be met?:  Will the golden rule be met? Source: Emmerson, Frayne and Love (2004) Will the golden rule be met?:  Will the golden rule be met? Source: Emmerson, Frayne and Love (2004) Will the golden rule be met?:  Will the golden rule be met? Source: Emmerson, Frayne and Love (2004) Will the golden rule be met?:  Will the golden rule be met? Source: Emmerson, Frayne and Love (2004) Will the golden rule be met?:  Will the golden rule be met? Source: Emmerson, Frayne and Love (2004) Will the golden rule be met?:  Will the golden rule be met? Source: IFS Calculations Conclusions:  Conclusions Over the current economic cycle: Treasury forecast for Golden rule to be met At best a 62% chance of success Relies on stronger growth in receipts and slower growth in spending Looking forwards Treasury forecast for Golden rule to be met Relies on strong growth in tax receipts Not expected to be met under ‘cautious case’

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