Published on February 17, 2009
Oil Price Shock Scenarios
This map shows the baseline vulnerability index for the model, a metric based on the ratio of foreign oil dependency to domestic oil stocks. The higher the value, the greater the vulnerability to import shocks.
In the event of a Russian invasion of the Ukraine, Europe would take the hardest hit in reduction of purchasing power. The Netherlands, Belgium, and Sweden are particularly hard hit
A loss of Iranian oil would have the largest impact on purchasing power in South East Asia, particularly in Japan.
Large reductions in purchasing power from a stoppage of Venezuelan oil is most strongly felt in the Caribbean, Central and South America.
A price shock to Nigerian oil is felt throughout the global market, but most significantly in the Caribbean, the Netherlands, Sweden, and China