Nov 4 2008 - Proflle of a Progressive Electorate?

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Information about Nov 4 2008 - Proflle of a Progressive Electorate?
News & Politics

Published on November 14, 2008

Author: Rhesa.J

Source: slideshare.net

Description

A data and graphic view of participation of voters by target demographic in the 2008 election.

The analysis focuses on illustrating the degree of shift in turnout, uplift in engagement, and increased diversity inspired by the 2008 campaign season.

Exit polls are used in this analysis. The presentation lays groundwork for a subsequent examination of accuracy of 2008 exit poll vs. 2010 polling in predicting 2010 midterm election turnout, demographics, and result.

Data Views of the 08 Electorate Foundations of Movement? content courtesy of www.frondebaliste.org data from national exit polls

Data Views of the 08 Electorate

Foundations of Movement?

A mix shift? A move to the left? A move to the right? A growing center? Rise of the youth? Expanded electorate? content courtesy of www.frondebaliste.org data from national exit polls

A mix shift?

A move to the left?

A move to the right?

A growing center?

Rise of the youth?

Expanded electorate?

Charts based on National Exit Poll data 2008 Presidential Election results http:// bit.ly /conservatives

A shift left, right, or center? 5% increase in votes from liberals for Obama vs. Kerry 11% increase in votes from moderates for Obama vs. Kerry 31% increase in voters identifying as conservative Obama improved against Kerry’s number in every ideological category The dramatic growth in conservatives appears to be primarily black and Latin republicans shifting to support Obama

A shift left, right, or center?

5% increase in votes from liberals for Obama vs. Kerry

11% increase in votes from moderates for Obama vs. Kerry

31% increase in voters identifying as conservative

Obama improved against Kerry’s number in every ideological category

The dramatic growth in conservatives appears to be primarily black and Latin republicans shifting to support Obama

Charts based on National Exit Poll data 2008 Presidential Election results http:// bit.ly/blackturnout

Rise of the Youth Vote? 18 to 29 year old voters increased in number, but still lagged black voters in this measure of engagement. Black voters went to the polls at a rate 10% greater than their numbers in the voting age population. Though decreasing in number, white voters continued to show high engagement Contribution is the ratio between a group’s % of the overall voting age population vs. % of votes cast in an election. It is an indication of civic engagement

Rise of the Youth Vote?

18 to 29 year old voters increased in number, but still lagged black voters in this measure of engagement.

Black voters went to the polls at a rate 10% greater than their numbers in the voting age population.

Though decreasing in number, white voters continued to show high engagement

Contribution is the ratio between a group’s % of the overall voting age population vs. % of votes cast in an election.

It is an indication of civic engagement

Charts based on National Exit Poll data 2008 Presidential Election results http:// bit.ly/LatinVote

A mix shift? 23% change in the number of blacks voting for Obama vs. Kerry 25% change in 18 – 29 year old voters 31% change in Latin voters 3% change in white voters for Obama vs. Kerry Mix shift illustrates a change in vote. It measures the combined impact of new voters and those shifting their vote from one party to another 60% of Increase in Latin votes shifted from Bush 04 to Obama in 08.

A mix shift?

23% change in the number of blacks voting for Obama vs. Kerry

25% change in 18 – 29 year old voters

31% change in Latin voters

3% change in white voters for Obama vs. Kerry

Mix shift illustrates a change in vote. It measures the combined impact of new voters and those shifting their vote from one party to another

60% of Increase in Latin votes shifted from Bush 04 to Obama in 08.

Charts based on National Exit Poll data 2008 Presidential Election results http:// bit.ly /turnout

An expanded electorate? Participation (the number of people voting) in targeted demographics increased across the board. Black voters increased by 17%, Latin by 13%, youth by 8%, and Asian by 2% Youth vote increased but lagged Latin and black voters in this measure of participation The total number of whites participating in the election declined, while whites voting democratic increased Overall participation in terms of people voting, increased by 2.9M or 2%., 125M in 08 vs.122M in 04. Targeted demographics are those identified as strategic or underrepresented in past elections .

An expanded electorate?

Participation (the number of people voting) in targeted demographics increased across the board.

Black voters increased by 17%, Latin by 13%, youth by 8%, and Asian by 2%

Youth vote increased but lagged Latin and black voters in this measure of participation

The total number of whites participating in the election declined, while whites voting democratic increased

Overall participation in terms of people voting, increased by 2.9M or 2%., 125M in 08 vs.122M in 04.

Targeted demographics are those identified as strategic or underrepresented in past elections .

Data Views of the 08 Electorate Foundations of Movement? content courtesy of www.frondebaliste.org data from national exit polls Platform for Collaboration? The increase in engagement across targeted demographic groups is indicative of the success of the Obama campaign strategy Turnout did not increase to as great a degree as forecast. http:// bit.ly /participation Will increase in engagement create a sustainable new base for collaboration beyond this election? Update: profiling the 2008 Electorate http://slidesha.re/3mSPxQ

Data Views of the 08 Electorate

Foundations of Movement?

Platform for Collaboration?

The increase in engagement across targeted demographic groups is indicative of the success of the Obama campaign strategy

Turnout did not increase to as great a degree as forecast.

http:// bit.ly /participation

Will increase in engagement create a sustainable new base for collaboration beyond this election?

Update: profiling the 2008 Electorate

http://slidesha.re/3mSPxQ

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