#noestimates

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Technology

Published on March 10, 2014

Author: MassimoIacolare

Source: slideshare.net

Description

Why going against the tide cannot bring you anything good!

#noestimates why going against the tide cannot bring you anything good! info@massimoiacolare.it @iacoware Massimo Iacolare

Estimating sucks!

Estimating sucks! End of story

Estimating sucks! End of story Questions?

#noestimates ‣nothing new, just a new (bigger) wave ‣lot of buzz, lately ‣Woody Zuill started the hashtag on twitter If you found estimates bring no value what would you do?

Why so interested?

Why so interested? I struggled against them for a long time

Why so interested? I struggled against them for a long time I still see a lot of energy & morale wasted

Software development …and why estimating (really) sucks! Part 1

Software development is… …a complex beast!

no best practices social interactions learning activity integration external factors

non deterministic no best practices social interactions learning activity integration external factors

Cynefin framework

Cynefin framework Emergent vs Predictable

ok, understood! lets get back to estimates

Unreliable: adj not able to be relied upon, untrustwhorty

How useful is a metric with 400% variance?

Let’s see what makes estimates unreliable…

Let’s see what makes estimates unreliable… as if being in a complex domain wasn’t enough…

Asked at the beginning of a project

Asked at the beginning of a project Someone said cone of uncertainty?

Asked at the beginning of a project Someone said cone of uncertainty? projectknowledge time cone of uncertainty

Cost of a feature =

Cost of a feature = Essential complexity +

Cost of a feature = Essential complexity Accidental complexity+ from “No silver bullet” Fred Brooks, 1995

Cognitive biases

Cognitive biases Optimism bias

Cognitive biases Optimism bias Anchoring bias

Cognitive biases Optimism bias Anchoring bias Availability bias

Cognitive biases Optimism bias Anchoring bias Availability bias Selective perception

Cognitive biases Optimism bias Anchoring bias Availability bias Selective perception Loss aversion List of cognitive biases

oh wait, we have a cure…

oh wait, we have a cure… estimate effort not duration!

oh wait, we have a cure… estimate effort not duration! sorry dude, estimates are incurable… all issues are still valid, plus we lost the only metric business care about… duration

oh wait, we have a cure… estimate effort not duration! sorry dude, estimates are incurable… all issues are still valid, plus we lost the only metric business care about… duration

My point is… if you’re rigorous and determined you can make them work (someway, somewhere), but…

My point is… if you’re rigorous and determined you can make them work (someway, somewhere), but… very easy to get derailed

My point is… if you’re rigorous and determined you can make them work (someway, somewhere), but… very easy to get derailed insist on a wrong mindset

Ask yourself…

Ask yourself… Worth the effort?

Ask yourself… Worth the effort? Are they a a mean or a goal?

Why? Part 2

Historical reasons

Historical reasons management techniques derived from traditional businesses

The impossible quest for predictability Management science’s impossible quest: in search of predictability

Prioritization

Prioritization estimates == prioritise on costs

Prioritization estimates == prioritise on costs learning should be your first priority Introducing deliberate discovery

Delivery date

Delivery date order-of-magnitude estimates are enough

Delivery date order-of-magnitude estimates are enough fixed-time fixed-budget more common and useful

Ship steering

Ship steering How far are we from the target?

Ship steering How far are we from the target? You’re asking the wrong question…

Part 3 the way out

Few assumptions

Few assumptions ‣ Relevant parts sits in the Complex Domain ‣ Unpredictable business ‣ Detailed planning won’t save us

Few assumptions ‣ Relevant parts sits in the Complex Domain ‣ Unpredictable business ‣ Detailed planning won’t save us Few ideas…

Establish a tight feedback loop at all levels: tdd, continuous delivery, customer

Establish a tight feedback loop at all levels: tdd, continuous delivery, customer only thing that works in emergent domains

Plan based on value

Plan based on value Hint: there’s no value in sticking to the plan

Just enough planning

Just enough planning Just-in-time planning

Just enough planning Just-in-time planning context changed assumptions debunked more knowledge

Just enough planning Just-in-time planning context changed assumptions debunked more knowledge explore new options

Iterate like there is no tomorrow

Iterate like there is no tomorrow working in iterations doesn’t mean iterating Embrace uncertainty

Become a master in slicing scope

Become a master in slicing scope Login Catalog Add to cart Checkout

Become a master in slicing scope Login Catalog Add to cart Checkout

Become a master in slicing scope you’ll meet deadlines too! Login Catalog Add to cart Checkout

estimate less code more

Thanks! Questions? info@massimoiacolare.it @iacoware Massimo Iacolare

I stand on the shoulders of giants Woody Zuill blog Vasco Duarte blog Neil Killick blog AgileCamp perfect flow - Gabriele Lana part1 - ITA AgileCamp perfect flow - Gabriele Lana part2 - ITA Estimation is the root of most software project failures Stop using story points The perils of estimation

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