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Science-Technology

Published on September 25, 2007

Author: Nickel

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NOAA Climate Models and Simulation:Activities at GFDL and NCEP:  NOAA Climate Models and Simulation: Activities at GFDL and NCEP July 22, 2002 Presentation to CCSPO Ants Leetmaa Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory NOAA/OAR Princeton, NJ NOAA Modeling Goals:  NOAA Modeling Goals Be world leaders for the production of timely and reliable knowledge, forecasts, and assessments on natural climate variability and anthropogenic changes and in the development of the required earth system models. Work cooperatively in NOAA to advance its expert assessments of variability and change in national and global climate through research, improved models, and products. Slide3:  1st estimates of effects of 2xCO2 1st IPCC coupled model 1st sim of chem-trans-radiation of Antarctic O3 hole Start of detection andamp; attribution; multiple GHG forcings; natural variability and forcings important; use of ensembles Attribution of role of O3 depletion in climate change NOAA Science Advances in Climate Dynamics and Prediction Linked to Computer Power Effects of sulfate and balack carbon in sat radiation budget Coupled ENSO fcsts 1st sim of H2O,cloud-rad, ice-albedo feedbacks Annual Mean Surface Temperature at Time of CO2 Doubling – year 70:  Polar amplification of warming Land warms more than ocean North Atlantic and Antarctic moderate warming These general conclusions still hold R15 atmosphere-ocean coupled model result – 1st IPCC model Annual Mean Surface Temperature at Time of CO2 Doubling – year 70 Linking Observed Record to Natural and Anthropogenic Effects:  Linking Observed Record to Natural and Anthropogenic Effects Beginning of detection and attribution of climate change Part of early 20th century warming may be due to natural variability from several causes 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Years Medium resolution coupled model results Slide6:  High Resolution Atmospheric Modeling at GFDL 1970 1980 1990 2000 Research on 3-D simulation of hurricanes Development of moveable nested mesh architecture Real case studies/prediction experiments Experimental prediction system: transition to NCEP Studies of hurricane changes with global change High resolution simulation of mid-latitude storms/tracks and links to climate NOAA Contributions to Ocean Modeling:  NOAA Contributions to Ocean Modeling Development of numerical codes to simulate the ocean 1970s-1980s Bryan-Cox-Semtner Code 1990 MOM 1 1990s NCOM (NCAR) MOM A (SOC, UK) POP (Los Alamos) MOM 2 Hadley Center (UK) IGCR (Japan) MOM3 CSIRO (Aust.) LLNL (US) 2000s MOM4 Projected Area for Progress:  Projected Area for Progress Development of high-resolution models that accurately portray the regional, time-varying transport and storage of heat and carbon. NOAA Contribution to National and International Climate Sciences:  NOAA Contribution to National and International Climate Sciences The oceans are a primary sink for carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere. Recently, 10 laboratories estimated the magnitude of the oceanic sink, and projected its behavior into the future for different emissions scenarios. Many of these models are descendants of GFDL codes. Slide10:  TESTING AND VERIFICATION OF MODELS Models are systematically tested with: Paleoclimate records Climate of the 20th century Recent (last 50 years) well-documented records Seasonal forecasting applications Although different models may agree in simulations of current climate, they do not agree on the sensitivity of climate. Especially important are potentially large responses of water vapor, clouds, and precipitation to climate change. Climate Feedback Differences Between GFDL and NCAR Models:  Climate Feedback Differences Between GFDL and NCAR Models Simulated climate sensitivity Low level cloud changes at 2xCO2 GFDL NCAR Model Improvements Through Comparisons with Observations:  Model Improvements Through Comparisons with Observations Examples of existing links include: NASA EOS satellite program to measure water vapor, cloud, radiation, aerosol, and hydrological parameters. DOE’s ARM program to provide detailed ground-based observations on clouds and radiation fields The interagency NACIP program for measurement of aerosols Other national/international intercomparison programs Slide13:  Climate Feedbacks and Observations Cloud parameterizations are a major source of uncertainty in the climate sensitivity of models. The availability of measured cloud profiles from radars operated by DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program at four diverse sites is a valuable resource in reducing this uncertainty. Major NOAA Modeling Collaborators:  Major NOAA Modeling Collaborators NCAR: Community Climate System Modeling Project GFDL National Centers for Environmental Prediction - NWS NCAR/GFDL links: Memorandum of Understanding Common oversight Regular topical workshops Visitors program Common modeling framework NCEP/GFDL links: Common modeling framework Cooperation in seasonal forecasting Research Community through public model releases Slide15:  Slide16:  1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 1990 2000 2010 Computing Power Cray C90 Cray T90/16 Cray T90/24 Cray T90/30 Cray Y-MP SGI O3800 Cluster SGI O3800 Cluster Upgrade Option Contract Hadley Cray T3Es Hadley NEC SX-6 Cluster Hadley NEC SX-6 Cluster Upgrade Earth Simulator NEC SX-6 Cluster Comparison of Computing Power by Climate Center NOAA/GFDL Hadley Center Earth Simulator New Software Frameworks for Earth System Models:  Adoption of a single lab-wide modeling framework – the Flexible Modeling System (FMS-GFDL) Promotes code sharing within GFDL and with outside collaborators Streamlines conversion efforts between different computer architectures Creates common standards and tools Participating in NASA’s Earth Science Modeling Framework (ESMF) as a possible future community standard for weather and climate models New Software Frameworks for Earth System Models NEED: a new framework for working with increasingly complex and interdisciplinary models running on complex computer architectures Slide18:  NOAA Performance Measure: Inventory and model carbon sources and sinks globally Develop climate models with interactive carbon cycles. Support routine estimate of carbon sources and sinks NOAA Performance Measure: Document the improvements in accuracy of the understanding of forcings by short-lived atmospheric greenhouse constituents: Reduce uncertainties through model experimentation and comparisons with field studies. Explore effects of changing emissions of chemical pollutants on air quality and climate forcing NOAA Performance Measure: Extend and improve predictions of climate variability. Develop and test next generation climate forecast models. Explore changes in natural climate variability due to climate change NOAA Performance Measures: For the Ocean Observing System will consist of the ability of the System to perform the following tasks: Ø     Document ocean carbon sources and sinks. Ø     Understand and document heat uptake by the ocean. Ø     Monitor for abrupt climate change. Develop global ocean analyses to support these objectives Modeling Contributions to NOAA Climate Performance Measures Slide19:  NOAA Performance Measure: Establishment of regular forums and formal mechanisms for determining user needs and deriving economic and social impacts of products and services. Scenarios to explore regional impacts of plausible scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions resulting from changing demographics, land use, and energy and pollutant policies. Studies of the impacts of change on specific sectors and regions (e.g., impacts in Arctic and on water resources). NOAA Performance Measure: Implement new Earth System Models (ESM) to support assessments and provide input to policy makers. Model improvements will be documented by comparisons to observations and previous and other models using standard statistical techniques.  FY2004 Implement ESM-1, with full terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles Deliver historical (1850-present) climate forcing fields to community; these extend current estimates including land use and aerosols FY2004 Perform scenario runs in preparation for next international assessment FY2005 Report on higher resolution versions of ESM-1 to be used for regional impacts Report on performance of fully interactive chemistry physics modules FY2006 Implement ESM with fully interactive chemistry Modeling Contribution to NOAA Climate Performance Measures Slide20:  1920 1990 Land Use/Cover Scenarios (with Princeton University) Land Use Carbon Storage Models for changing technology, agriculture, land use, demographics, climate Scenarios for: Carbon storage andamp; net biological productivity Surface climate Land use Hydrology Primary vegetation Secondary vegetation Crops Pasture Slide21:                    Model estimates of CO2 storage since 1765 Scenarios Exploring Technology – Climate Links (with Princeton University) Carbon Sequestration: use ocean/terrestrial models along with appropriate climate scenarios to explore options. Solution Strategies: use Earth System model to develop and evaluate 'solution strategies' for target concentrations taking into account sequestration potentials, technologic advance, demographics. Slide22:  Additional Modeling Contributions During the Next 5-10 Years Development of next generation non-hydrostatic hurricane model for use in climate studies of potential changes in intensity and distribution and use in operational forecasting at NCEP. Studies of potential changes to extratropical storms in response to climate variability and change Cloud resolving models: addressing questions of the response of tropical moisture and clouds to global warming and the effects of these on climate sensitivity in ways not possible with global models Regular reports on detection and attribution of observed climate between variability and change Improved understanding of oceanic heat uptake and transport Improved seasonal forecasts Slide23:  Focus and approach Support operational Week 2 to Seasonal-Interannual forecasts Develop operational Ocean Data Assimilation capability Leveraging forecast system development between weather and climate models Develop land surface models with NWP heritage Operational Seasonal Forecasting System Development Slide24:  2001-2002 Accomplishments Implementation of NCEP’s Operational Seasonal Forecast Model for the U.S. Produce routine ENSO forecasts using Equatorial Pacific ocean model and data assimilation Develop real time global ocean data base and experimental global ocean analysis system Perform experimental 60 day forecasts Test land surface and regional climate models Slide25:  2003-2004 Plans Participate in Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment Continue land surface and regional model development Implement operational coupled ocean-atmosphere system for seasonal forecasts Make improvements to WK2 to seasonal forecast system Participate in Earth System Modeling Framework Perform Regional Reanalysis (1979-present)

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