Published on March 6, 2014
Socio-economic and agrodevelopment trends and drivers for Asia
INTERVENTIONS AGRARIAN SYSTEM CROPS LIVESTOCK FOREST OFF-FARM MARKETS SHOCKS WATER SOCIAL RELATIONS FARM SYSTEM ORGANISATIONS TRENDS LAND VILLAGE SYSTEM TRAJECTORIES
Levels of drivers 1. Global drivers of change 2. Country specific drivers of change – Infrastructure and policies, 3. Local drivers of change
Global drivers • Rising energy costs • World trade and globalisation – Increased distance food travels – What does WTO mean for Lao • World prices • Biotec • Climate change
Population growth and demography • • • • Total Urban:rural Aging work force in rural areas Currently low dependency ratio is some countries like Laos….that is going to change
Consumption • • • • • Change in incomes Substitution between foods Food quality Food safety Ethical, environmental issues
Labour • • • • Availability of labour Cost of labour Mechanisation Diversified rural livelihoods
Rising input costs • Fertiliser – Linked to energy (reductions from highs on the last decade) • Irrigation
Access to land • • • • Urbanisation Consolidation Concessions Enclosure of the commons • Process of bringing smallholders back into systems in former colonials • Land grabs in new areas
Access to finance
Biofuels • Crops now linked to energy markets • Crops linked to developments in other crop/tree markets – Already were linked in the starch market – Now linked in biofuel sector
National food security • Main crops • Secondary crops not given preference – Inefficiencies • What happens if China gives up on selfsufficiency objectives
Price controls vs support for farmers • Concern over rising prices – Price controls along the value chain • Thailand rice support
Infrastructure • Access to remote areas – Market access – Changing commodities (from subsistence to commercialisation – Differential impacts • Potential for a backwash effect
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2 RESOURCE EFFICIENCY: ECONOMICS AND OUTLOOK FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 2. Asia and the Paciﬁ c constitutes the most dynamic region in the world today: