Published on February 17, 2014
Lecture L11 CONNECTING PEOPLE
Think about this How does technology evolve? Adjacent Possible Law of Accelerating Returns The S-curve The Prevailing Technology Trap
Communication Wars have been won on intelligence and the speed of communications ! Militaries and business community on the forefront on the development of rapid communication
Communication Early 19th century the horse dominated Stage coaches and pony express The railroads changed this Then came electricity
Electricity Flickr image: -‐Qualsiasi
Electricity Long before the 19th century, people had acknowledged electronic forces ! Benjamin Franklin’s famous Kite experiment in 1752 proved that lightning was made of electricity
Scientific Discoveries From 1820 to 1880 saw series in radio and electromagnetism Era of poor communication and non-systematic research Duplicated work, misunderstood results, and often misinterpreted own results
Early Discoveries Christian Oersted ! Discovered electromagnetism (rafsegulsvið) 1820 ! Electric current (straumur) creates a magnetic field (segulsvið) !
Early Discoveries Michael Faraday ! In 1821 reversed Oersted’s experiment and discovered induction (leiðni) ! He got current to flow through wire around a magnet ! Magnetic energy could be converted to electricity – Faraday’s Law
Early Discoveries Joseph Henry ! Scientist professor with College of New Jersey ! Transmitted the first practical electric signal (rafboð) in 1830 ! This was the foundation for electric signalling – the telegraph
Early Discoveries James Maxwell ! Published papers on electricity Maxwell’s Equations 1864 ! Light, electricity, and magnetisms are related and travel or radiate in waves ! Waves depend on frequency
Early Discoveries Heinrich Hertz ! Defined and documented a practical way to send and receive radio waves, 1888 ! Used Maxwell’s Equations
Conclusions Several discoveries were made 1820-1880 Electricity, Radio, Electromagnetisms Law of Accelerating Return ! This laid foundation for new disruptive technologies Adjacent Possible
The Second Industrial Revolution The period 1870-1914 Innovations in the chemical, electric, petroleum and steel industries ! Growth period
The Second Industrial Revolution “The Age of Synergy” ! When most great innovations were developed Begun with Bessemer steel in the 1860s and culminated in mass production and the production line
The Long Wave Kondratiev Waves ! 1780 – 1830 Cotton, Iron, Water Power 1830 – 1880 Railways, Steam Power, Steamships 1880 – 1930 Electricity, Chemicals, Steel
Think About This What was the killer application of electricity?
Light Lighting became one of the first publicly available applications ! In 1880 Tomas Edison had developed a light-bulb that last enough time to be practical ! Several commercial solutions Lack of standards Power transmissions and wiring of household ! "War of Currents"
Communication Electromagnetism and Radio Foundation for electronic communications ! New markets for communication Telegraph Phone Wireless Telegraph
“What has God wrought” Morse’s first message from Baltimore to the U.S. capital The Telegraph
The Telegraph ! From the Greek words tele = far and graphein = write (símriti) ! Later to be called the “Victorian Internet”
The Telegraph Simple device with battery and key for sending electric signals ! At the other end was a similar device emitting sound or printing the signal
The Telegraph Samuel F. B. Morse invented the first practical telegraph in 1837 ! Granted a patent 1838 ! Moore devised a telegraphic code consisting of dots and dashes ! Shorter and longer electric impulse send down the wire - The Morse Code ! Standardised messages
The Telegraph The Telegraph Business was born ! Morse sold licenses to companies that operated telegraph stations ! In 1851 there were over 50 companies in the US selling telegraph services – including Western Union ! Market consolidation
“Mr. Watson, come here, I want you!” - Alexander G. Bell, the first telephone message The Telephone
The Telephone Invented in 1876 At the time, the telegraph was dominant Transferred sound waves with electric current over wire ! Alexander G. Bell Created the first practical telephone ! Based on experiments and improvements in technology at the time
The Telephone Bell was working on the harmonic telegraph ! A device that could send more then one telegraph message at the same time ! Worked with skilled machinist named Thomas A. Watson ! Joseph Henry encouraged him in 1875 to work on the telephone instread of the harmonic telegraph
The Telephone The telephone was based on variable resistance (breytilegu viðnámi)
The Importance of Patents Bell filed a notice for a patent Feb. 14, 1876 “The most valuable patent ever issued” Elisha Gray also filed a patent that same day ! The Patent Mystery It is still a mystery what happened that day Did Bell see Gray’s patent and update his? Over 600 legal battles would challenge the patent
Commercial Development Bell had difficulty convincing contemporaries of the usefulness of the telephone - the telegraph prevailed ! Difficult to get investment ! Bell offered the patent to Western Union for $100.000 which they declined ! Bell continued and slowly telephones started to replace telegraphs
The Bell Company In 1877 Bell and his backers formed the first Bell Company ! Gardiner Hubbard and George Sanders ! Business model: Bell Company leased telephones and licensed franchises instead of selling them
The Battle with Western Union Western Union was very powerful company – near-monopoly in telegraphs with a huge network of wires ! Western Union started competing with Bell in 1877 ! Founded American Speaking Telephone Company with Thomas Edison, Elisha Gray, Amos Dolbear ! Made many improvements
The Battle with Western Union Bell sued Western Union for patent infringements ! The case was settled in 1879 ! Bell agreed not to go into the telegraph market, and Western Union agreed not to go into the telephone market ! Bell would buy Western Union’s telephone network with 50.000 subscribers in 50 cities and pay a license ! Stock in Bell’s company rose from $50 to $500 in 1879 ! At least 1.730 telephone companies organised and operated during Bell’s patent protection
Emergence of a new Market Within few years many telephone companies were formed ! Bell licensed telephone equipment ! In 1878 • First commercial switchboard started operation • First telephone directory came out with fifty names • The Ringing was invented – and patented
Telephone Giant is born AT&T Founded in 1885 to raise capital to fund the continued expansion and protect the market position Connected the RBOCs for long distance calls ! Bell Became the largest telephone company In 1982 Bell was worth $256 billion In 1984, split into AT&T and seven other independent companies
“The wireless telegraph is not difficult to understand. The ordinary telegraph is like a very long cat. You pull the tail in New York, and it meows in Los Angeles. The wireless is the same, only without the cat.” - Albert Einstein Wireless Communication
History At the dawn of the 20th century, two mediums for communication were dominant ! The telegraph: Became important in the American Civil War (1861-65), dominated by Western Union ! The telephone: Dominant technology with the growth of Bell ! Both these technologies had one problem: they were wire-based
History Knowledge of radio waves is increasing ! Hertz proved Maxwell’s theories and demonstrated the existence of radio waves ! Next steps Commercial Solutions Many tried to build devices that sent and received “Hertzian waves” ! Wireless Telegraphy “Spark Transmitter” for sending signals – Morse Code The Prevailing Technology Trap
Innovators Guglielmo Marconi saw an opportunity in wireless communication ! Studied physics at the University of Bologna ! Several experiments in 1894 in Bologna, Italy ! Marconi’s goal was to use his knowledge developed in telephony
The Product Marconi was improving the telegraph ! “Spark Transmitter” where signals could represent the Morse code ! Potential market: Maritime market – British Royal Navy Transatlantic communication
Marconi Demonstrations Marconi provided public trails of his equipment ! Became a news item himself – provided interest in the technology and investing in his company
Skepticism and Competition Many scientists were happy to point out flaws in Marconi’s inventions Many tried to discredit his work These were mostly scientists, others competitors ! Doubts that wireless had any application Limitations – radios worded on fixed frequency Security – anyone could listen in The telegraph was initially 20 times faster ! Cable companies showed no interest in wireless
The Wireless Telegraph Bubble Wireless Telegraph was popular in the press Public demonstration ! Many companies competed for stock funding Resulted in Stock inflations “The Wireless Telegraph bubble” ! Sceptic voices started to respond ! Series of articles in Success Magazine, “Fools and their money” appeared 1907
The Market The market was where cables don’t work Ships became the prime market Airplanes when they became more common Military use – where cables cannot be laid Mobility – easy to move wireless equipment ! Problems No communication protocol was in use Each company had their own protocol
Government Regulation No regulations controlled the airwaves The sinking of RMS Titanic prompted governments to set international standards of communication The Marconi operator on the Titanic sent “C.Q.D” C.Q. meant attention, D was for Distress SOS is ... - - - ...
Wireless Communication Around 1940 ideas for wireless communication were established ! 40-50 years would pass before common practical application of a mobile phone ! It was not until the development of microchips and technology for building devices, that wireless communication became practical for individuals ! Rules and cautiousness were to delay the progress ! Also investments in land based systems
Wireless Communication Wireless communication started early 20th century Advanced during the wars ! Wireless radio was important in WWII Many innovations such as spread spectrum and frequency hopping
Wireless Communication After the war, use of wireless was restricted to certain professions – Military, Police, Fire Departments – Taxis Not public solutions
Mobile Radio Networks The ideas for mobile radio networks were developed in the 1940s Area of radio cells – Cellular network Early Systems Bell Labs, AT&T International systems
Wireless technology and the idea of building a network of cells was understood in 1940s. Why did the public mobile phone not appear until in the late 1970s, early 80s?
Adjacent Possible TECHNICAL CULTURAL ! ! Big Limited Expensive Political Commercial
The Digital Revolution
Next RISE OF THE MACHINE
Next RISE OF THE MACHINE
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