Modelling benefits at project, programme and portfolio level for EDF's Nuclear generation fleet, case study, David Liversidge, London, 23 June 2016

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Information about Modelling benefits at project, programme and portfolio level for EDF's...

Published on July 4, 2016

Author: assocpm

Source: slideshare.net

1. +44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com info@bmt-hqs.com ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd 23 June 2016 Modelling Benefits at Project, Programme and Portfolio Level for EDF’s Nuclear Generation Fleet David Liversidge Principal Consultant

2. +44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com info@bmt-hqs.com ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd  Background - the Problem  Our Approach  Our Plan  The Outputs: Models, Maps, Profiles, KPIs  An Unexpected Journey: from Project to Programme to Portfolio and back again  Conclusions Overview

3. +44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com info@bmt-hqs.com ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd  EDF Nuclear Generation are the licensed operators of a Fleet of 7 Advanced Gas-cooled Reactors (AGRs)  With a range of Plant Life Extensions (PLEX) campaigns, the fleet is planned to be retired between 2025 and 2035  Lifetime Programmes are an organisation within EDF responsible for delivering a range of strategic programmes to ensure safe, cost-effective operation of the fleet for its remaining life  Carbon Deposition is one such cross-cutting lifetime programme; aimed at mitigating the effects of carbon build-up on the reactor fuel and auxiliary systems  The Carbon Deposition programme comprised 5 workstreams: Prevent; Remove; Harden; Understand; and Manage  BMT HQS were originally tasked by EDF to help deliver the major project under the ‘Prevent’ workstream called Deposition Resistant Fuel (DRF)  The DRF project was approaching its major investment decision point and our tasking was extended to cover development of a benefits model and realisation plan for this project Background

4. +44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com info@bmt-hqs.com ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd Our Approach Understand & Model the System Identify & Map the Benefits Value & Profile the Benefits Plan Benefits Realisation Confirm investment rationale & VFM in portfolio Ensure accountability & transparency Develop a logical basis for future steps Define system into which the benefits will be delivered Realise Benefits Physical & Management Systems Interfaces & Relationships understood. Problem and solution space bounded. Baseline ‘As-is’ performance agreed Causal relationships between candidate change projects & programmes, outcomes, & benefits agreed. Scale of benefits estimated. Interdependencies between changes characterised Time-phased profiles of benefits showing quantified baseline & target levels in financial & non-financial terms. Balance of investment options appraised. Benefits prioritised, appropriate tracking measures selected & assigned to BCMs. Plan to realise benefits & mitigate blockers. BCMs monitor & report via PMO / PfMO

5. +44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com info@bmt-hqs.com ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd Our Plan

6. +44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com info@bmt-hqs.com ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd Output 1: Rich Picture

7. +44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com info@bmt-hqs.com ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd Catalytic CD on Fuel Pins Fuel Element Heat Transfer Impairment Increase in Clad Temp Post Irradiation Examination HTI Assessment Process Increase in Fission Gas Pressure Modelled Values (Temperature & FGP) Measured retrospectively (post dwell) by Recrystallisation Clad Melt Clad Cracking Increased Temperature Variations Start-Up RFF Fuel Fault Studies Fuel Duties Fuel Failure Limiting Conditions of Operation Safety Cases Assessed retrospectively (post dwell) by HTI SRU Allowances Safety Case Anomaly Process If HTI Allowances > Safety Case Limits Management System Fuel System Normal Fuel System Operation Prevents Defines Operational Restrictions Failed Fuel stringers removed early Failed Fuel bottled and stored at station Failed Fuel moved to B13 Causes Failed Fuel subject to PIE Failed Fuel processed and stored long term Failed Fuel Route Nuclear Safety Requirements Clad melt Depressurisatio n Asymmetry PCI Technical Specifications X% 100 - X% Fission Gas Over Pressure Modelled retrospectively (post dwell) by If modelled values >LCOs Constrains Station Compliance Route Catalytic CD on Boiler Components Boiler Heat Transfer Impairment Spalled Carbon Impairs Gas and Fuel Route Plant Reduced Boiler Thermal Efficiency Gas/steam Temperature Monitoring Increased Rework & MaintenanceMonitored ‘in line’ by Boiler System Normal Boiler System Operation Prevents Output 2: System Model

8. +44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com info@bmt-hqs.com ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd  [Redacted] Output 3: Benefits Maps

9. +44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com info@bmt-hqs.com ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd  [Redacted] Output 4: Benefit Profiles

10. +44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com info@bmt-hqs.com ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd  [Redacted] Output 5: Realisation Plan (KPI)

11. +44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com info@bmt-hqs.com ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd An Unexpected Journey: from Project to Programme to Portfolio and Back Again

12. +44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com info@bmt-hqs.com ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd An Unexpected Journey: from Project to Programme to Portfolio and Back Again Plan Benefits Realisation Understand & Model the System Identify & Map the Benefits Developed a logical system model to capture the complex interactions between the problem (Carbon Deposition) and the impacts of this on the system Developed a logical benefits map which helped EDF to gain an understanding of how to manage its whole portfolio as opposed to stand-alone projects and programmes Developed a benefits profiling tool combined with cost modelling work to enable a ‘complete package’ of cost-benefit analysis for a range of assumptions, what-if scenarios. Working with a wide group of stakeholders added robustness to the decision making process Value & Profile the Benefits Development of KPIs for ongoing management of Carbon Deposition This analysis enabled EDF to prioritise their investment across the portfolio and take a conscious strategic decision of alternative action to invest based on maximising safety and financial benefits

13. +44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com info@bmt-hqs.com ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd  Be careful what you ask for!  ‘Whole System’ models can help understanding and identifying complex cause-and-effect chains; especially where the ‘problem’ consists of technical and organisational systems interacting  Stakeholder engagement throughout the process is vital  A Benefits driven view of dependencies at programme and portfolio level gives an invaluable perspective to support decisions and ongoing change management  A Time based perspective of Benefits is key: the baseline now will not be the same as the baseline at implementation; you need to understand if some of your ‘sandwiches will be eaten’  Benefits Quantification is an inexact science: maps and models will help but values will be a mix of objective and subjective. You therefore need to understand risk and uncertainty and model in your estimates including sensitivity (what-if) analysis to test key assumptions  Presentation of results must support decisions: Investment Appraisals and Business Cases; Discounted Cash Flows;  There should be a parity of rigour in developing cost and benefits, as well as shared data, assumptions, risks, etc. key lessonsEDF Case Study

14. thank you +44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com info@bmt-hqs.com ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd Berkeley House, The Square Lower Bristol Road Bath, BA2 3BH United Kingdom www.bmt-hqs.com Tel: +44 (0) 1225 820980 Fax: +44 (0) 1225 820981 Mob: +44 (0) David Liversidge David.Liversidge@bmt-hqs.com 7799 903549

15. This presentation was delivered at an APM event To find out more about upcoming events please visit our website www.apm.org.uk/events

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