Published on February 19, 2014
London, 19 February 2014 MNI CHINA BUSINESS SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. BEIJING TIME, 19 FEBRUARY 2014 China Business Confidence Falls to Five Year Low MNI China Business Indicator Declines to 50.2 in February from 52.2 in January Media Release Business confidence fell for the second consecutive month in February to its lowest level for five years, indicating a significant weakening in business activity. The MNI China Business Indicator fell to 50.2 in February from 52.2 in January, the lowest reading since January 2009. The Future Expectations Indicator, which measures business conditions in three months’ time, also deteriorated, falling to 50.6 in February from 57.9 previously and posting the lowest reading since the series began in March 2007. While the data is seasonally adjusted, accounting for the impact of the Lunar New Year can be difficult. The February and March data in aggregate would provide a clearer guide to the underlying trend. The Production Indicator fell sharply to the lowest level since February 2011 and the first time below the 50 breakeven level since September 2012. New Orders fell for the second consecutive month to the lowest level since March 2013. The Credit Availability Indicator rose in February to post the highest reading since October, a possible indication that the authorities have relaxed their tight credit policy or that the credit tightening has been softer than thought. Commenting on the data, Chief Economist for MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, “Our survey provides one of the first indications of how the economy performed in February and the results were very poor. Business confidence hit a 5-year low while expectations for the future were the lowest on record.” “The Chinese authorities face the unenviable task of trying to achieve a more sustainable growth path, while ensuring that they don’t pull the rug from underneath the economy.” - ENDS - firstname.lastname@example.org | www.mni-indicators.com | @MNIIndicators
Page 2 For further information, please contact: Naomi Kim, Public Relations email@example.com +1 212 669 6459 Editorial Content: Philip Uglow, Chief Economist, MNI Indicators Media Release Notes to Editors Please source all information to MNI Indicators. MNI China Business Sentiment is a monthly poll of Chinese business executives at companies listed on either the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges. Companies are a mix of manufacturing and service sector firms. With over five years of history, the survey tracks and predicts Chinese economic conditions and is an important leading indicator of GDP. Respondents are asked their opinion on whether a particular business activity has increased, decreased or remained the same compared with the previous month as well as their expectations for three months ahead, e.g. is Production higher/same/lower compared with a month ago? Diffusion indicators are then calculated by adding the percentage share of positive responses to half the percentage of those respondents reporting no change. An indicator reading above 50 shows expansion, below 50 indicates contraction and a result of 50 means no change. Data is collected through computer aided telephone interviews (CATI) and around 200 companies are surveyed each month. Series which show a seasonal pattern are seasonally adjusted using the US Census Bureau’s X12 seasonal adjustment program. Seasonal factors are calculated annually. About MNI Indicators MNI Indicators, part of Deutsche Börse Group, offers unique macro-economic data and insight to businesses and the investment community. We produce data and intelligence that is unbiased, pertinent and responsive. Our data moves markets. For more information, visit our website at www.mni-indicators.com. firstname.lastname@example.org | www.mni-indicators.com | @MNIIndicators
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