Published on March 19, 2009
presentation by Michael P. Totten Chief Advisor, Climate, Freshwater & Ecosystem Services, Conservation International At the panel on Sustaining Our Natural Resources: Protecting the World's Forests Sustainable Opportunities Summit 2009: Global Sustainability: the New Bottom Line, CORE Colorado March 18, 2009 www.aclimateforlife.org/
4 TRENDS – Inextricably Interwoven EXTINCTION SPASM CLIMATE CATASTROPHE FOOD & WATER SHORTAGES MASS POVERTY
6th largest extinction – 1000 times natural background rate 1800 species populations extirpated every hour
More absolute poverty than any time in human history
Food, Fuel, Species Tradeoffs? By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land may be required for agriculture. Combined with the 800 million ha of additional land needed for medium growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens intact ecosystems and biodiversity- rich habitats.
Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere rs u o h 4 4 ry e v e 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines
Unintended Consequences – Geo-engineering A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, and accumulate over geological time spans of hundreds of thousands of years, raising the lurid, but real threat of extinction of humanity and most life on earth.
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading … a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of quot;catastrophe insurancequot; needed: quot;rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction Martin Weitzman …A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$300 billion] of national income on the cost of a clean environment.quot; MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.
Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint 2008 now 45GtCO2 2050 reduce to <10 GtCO2 2100 reduce to <4 GtCO2 Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights- based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000
Century of Global Economic Growth Compared with Today /y r yr 3% x / 2% 19 7x
“Leasing” CO2 Mitigation Services Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year 5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year in Billion tons CO2 mitigation services available in 25 poor nations, increasing their revenues by billions of dollars 20 annually ; and saving well-off nations billions of dollars. 15 10 US GHG 5 levels 0 Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use 14 million hectares burned each year IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
Direct yields from tropical lands converted to farming, including proceeds from the sale of timber: equivalent to less than $1 per ton of CO2 in many areas currently losing forest, and usually well below $5 per ton. Sir Nicholas Stern Avoided Deforestation offers one of the most cost-effective, immediately available, large-scale carbon mitigation and adaptation options. Unchecked, deforestation could increase atmospheric concentrations of CO2 by up to 130 ppm this century. CONTRASTING ACTIONS: $45 billion to capture and store 1 billion tons of CO2 from coal plants. The same amount of money would prevent the release of 6 times this amount of CO2 through avoided deforestation.
U.S. fossil Electricity CO2 Geological storage (CCS) vs mitigation cost annually Ecological storage (REDD) (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007) Carbon Mitigation Cost $ per ton CO2 Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) $50 $45 ~$100 billion $40 ~3 ¢ per kWh $35 $30 $25 Reduced Emissions Deforestation & Degradation $20 (REDD) $15 $10 ~$18 billion $5 ~0.5 ¢ per kWh $- 0 CCS REDD Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008
U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007 $7.50 per ton CO2 2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions 1/2 cent per kWh $18 billion REDD trade Poverty reduction Prevent Species loss Tropical Deforestation 2007 30 million acres burned 7 billion tons CO2 emissions A win- win-win outcome
480 gallons per year 4.8 tons GHG emissions = (25 mpg x 12,000 miles per year) per year $48 to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation & Degradation (REDD) Adds 8.5 cents per gallon
carbon markets forests and Toby Janson-Smith Senior Director, Forest Carbon Markets
What is the “Carbon Market” The buying and selling (trading) of: emissions permits (rights to pollute) distributed by a regulatory body, or carbon offsets that have been generated by GHG emissions reduction projects Carbon markets help achieve emissions reductions in the most cost effective way via the trading of carbon credits Carbon credit = reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) equal to one ton of carbon dioxide (tCO2e), the most common GHG
Regulatory Carbon Market “cap & trade” The Carbon Market: trading offsets and allowances Company pre- regulatory CO2 emissions Allowances Offsets or Offsets sold purchased Allowances sold Regulatory Cap Offset Projects
Voluntary Carbon Market e.g. carbon neutral commitments The Carbon Market: trading offsets Starting emissions Energy Efficiency Offsets sold Offsets purchased Renewable Energy Carbon Offset Projects Offsets “Carbon Neutral!”
Rapid Growth of Carbon Markets
Carbon Market Demand
The Forest Carbon Opportunity Ref: IPCC 2007 cited in Climate Report 14 (2008). Mission Climat of Caisse des Dépôts
burning and clearing tropical forests accounts for about 20% of global GHG emissions — more than all the world’s cars, trucks, ships, planes, and trains combined
protecting tropical forests is one of the fastest and most cost effective ways we can reduce CO2 emissions
people living in poverty world-wide, depend on forest ecosystems and the services they provide for their livelihoods
healthy ecosystems buffer the impacts of climate change Forests reduce risks of floods+ droughts and maintain agricultural productivity Coral reefs + mangroves buffer coastal storms Intact habitat allows species to migrate
investments target energy efficiency + low carbon technologies <1% forest + land use $120M Existing carbon project investment $15B
investing in nature is a cost effective + immediate solution Potential carbon market project investment (2020) $150 billion forest + land use $30 billion By protecting forests we can provide an effective bridge to a low-carbon economy.
CI – building markets for forest carbon 1) Shaping climate policies 2) Creating carbon standards 3) Developing field projects 4) Securing major investment 5) Creating innovative funding vehicles
1) Shaping Climate Policies UN post-Kyoto global treaty European Union US Federal US state (e.g., CA)
2) Creating Standards Project Design, plus Social Credibility of GHG Reductions and Environmental Impacts Additionality Poverty alleviation & Measurement & Monitoring Sustainable development Leakage Biodiversity conservation Permanence Watershed protection Registration Climate Adaptation
3) Developing Model Carbon Projects Projects pre-FY08 Projects initiated FY08
Madagascar Makira Reserve - Protecting & restoring wilderness, while helping people, species & climate
Ecuador collaborative offset projects Preserve habitat for threatened Andean Spectacled Bear, Howler Monkey, and Northern Naked Tailed Armadillo
FCCB Forest Restoration for Climate, Community and Biodiversity
4) Securing Corporate Investment
5) Conservation & Community Carbon Fund Repayment of Project Carbon Credit project costs Development Transactions and Capacity Grants ($250M - $1,000M) $ ($25M - $100M) tCO2 $ $$ Project Project Project Implementation Design Start-up (Producing carbon credits) Years 1 - 3 Years 4 - 30 • Carbon purchases and assets managed by private sector
Various Types of Private Tropical Forest Financial Instruments John O. Niles, Driving Private Capital to Conserve Tropical Forests: Current Frameworks & Policy Ideas, 2009 Forest Carbon Finance Summit, Harvard University’s Program on International Financial Systems, 03-04-09, www.law.harvard.edu/programs/pifs/fcfsbb2009.html
Presentations & Publications by Michael P Totten www.slideshare.net/mptotten/slideshows www.scribd.com/mtotten6756
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