Metals Weekly Tracker, 10Mar2014

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Information about Metals Weekly Tracker, 10Mar2014
Business & Mgmt

Published on March 13, 2014

Author: MelissaLu2

Source: slideshare.net

Description

•China risks affect base metal basket
•Copper under threat from structural unwinding of financing
•Gold and Platinum benefit from Ukrainian tension
•Most metals still too high for yearly target

Adamson Associates •China risks affect base metal basket •Copper under threat from structural unwinding of financing •Gold and Platinum benefit from Ukrainian tension •Most metals still too high for yearly target 11Mar2014 | Commodities Weekly, Metals SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com WeeklyMetalsTracker

Platinum and Gold benefit from Ukrainian risks; Zinc continue to ride on healthy fundamentals; Iron Ore hit hard by weak China demand and stockpiling Metals: Valuation Benchmark Adamson -1% -5% 1% -6% -5% 7% -2% -9% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% %over/ Year-endAvg undervaluation priceforecast Current price Gold -1% 1141 1341 Silver -5% 1537 2094 Platinum 1% 1352 1482 Aluminium -6% 1630 1730 Copper -5% 6536 6931 Zinc 7% 190 209 Lead -2% 205 208 IronOre -9% 118 121 WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

US employment picture gets better, cold weather cuts into production slightly, Fed QE unwinding still in place; USD gains Dollar Index: USD Adamson 79 79 79 80 80 80 80 80 81 81 81 Feb09,2014 Feb10,2014 Feb11,2014 Feb12,2014 Feb13,2014 Feb14,2014 Feb16,2014 Feb17,2014 Feb18,2014 Feb19,2014 Feb20,2014 Feb21,2014 Feb23,2014 Feb24,2014 Feb25,2014 Feb26,2014 Feb27,2014 Feb28,2014 Mar02,2014 Mar03,2014 Mar04,2014 Mar05,2014 Mar06,2014 Mar07,2014 Mar09,2014 Mar10,2014 WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Transcript Aluminium • The first corporate bond default was coupled by surprising trade deficit in China, base metals and minerals prices hit; aluminium fundamentals do not help; solid contango • Destocking driven by production cuts in Ex China undermined by China production gains; LME destocking pauses; open interests gains reflecting shorts • Prices are better in March comparing to the previous month, however, still at very undervalued levels; Aluminium current pricing still too high for yearly target • SHFE AL pricing fell sharply with no sign of picking up by weekend, reflecting strong bearish sentiments surrounding fate of economy and financing deals • The supply tightness in an inverse forward curve has disappeared, turning into a normal contango; restocking has started, signalling re-emerging pressure on soft demand Copper • The biggest copper consumer – China, having its shadow financing sector curbed, means less demand for copper financing deals, discouraging pricing; LME supply tightness • While destocking continues, it is happening at a slower pace, there are demand side concerns; open interests fell, reflecting long liquidation • Undervaluation worsens for copper in March, the combo of bad news from China means the metal will remain depressed in the short term; pricing still too high for target • SHFE copper pricing collapses similar to LME, capturing the correlating factors that are originating from China • Forward curves show a slight contango; there is a slight degree of tightness in near-dated contracts; restocking starts to gain momentum, demand brought into question WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Cont. Zinc • Zinc’s rise was also affected by the latest economic developments, however, at a lesser degree than other base metals; there is supply tightness in near-dated contracts • Zinc has seen its stock level to pick up for the first time in a while, signalling a hit on demand for base metals; open interests gained as long liquidations entered the market • Zinc is still overvalued, and doing much better than the rest of the basket; as a result, it exceeds its price target quite a bit, with room for fall • SHFE Zinc has not been performing at par with LME Zinc, price mainly fluctuated and fell in the recent week • Zinc is in a normal contango with no supply side tightness; restocking is strong for the metal in SHFE warehouses, underlying pressure from demand Lead • Lead performs in along a similar pattern as Zinc, price fluctuated and fell; curve is normal with no supply side tightness • Stocks have been rising for lead on the LME, underlying some pressure for the metal; open interests gained as long liquidations occured • Lead has become undervalued after a brief month being overvalued; the price however is within its yearly target range • SHFE lead deteriorated in February, undermined by worries over China’s economy • There has been little change for lead stock; the metal is in a normal forward curve WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Cont. Gold • Gold benefits from Ukrainian uncertainties, greater inflation and Chinese buying; seen as a safe haven, the precious metal has a rather flat near-dated curve • Gold stocks gained somewhat over the week; open interest fell slightly, with a mixture of long liquidation and short covering • Gold is almost at value given current pricing; its pricing however, has far exceeded its yearly target, with room for fall Silver • Silver has been unable to cash in on the geo-political volatilities that have been positively driving other precious metals, silver continues to perform poorly • Inventories continue to pile up for silver; open interests fell as long liquidation dominated • Silver has been recovering from its massive undervaluation; its current pricing is however too high for its yearly target WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Cont. Platinum • Platinum has been a beneficiary of the Russian- Ukrainian tension, being the largest supplier of the precious metal, volatilities have been driving prices up • Inventories reduced slightly over the week; open interests gained as shorts drove prices down • Platinum is slightly undervalued at its current level; it is also still higher than its yearly target range Additional Data • Steel prices continued to fall, dragging Iron Ore and the Aussie Dollar WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Aluminium WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

The first corporate bond default was coupled by surprising trade deficit in China, base metals and minerals prices hit; aluminium fundamentals do not help; solid contango Aluminium: Spot and 3M Price, USD/t Source: LME, Adamson 1729.5 1771 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 Spot 3M Aluminium: Futures Curve (USD/t) Source: LME, Adamson 1729.5 1771 1918 1987 2053 1641.5 1686.5 1848 1925 2000 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,900 1,950 2,000 2,050 2,100 7/03/2014 4/02/2014 WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Destocking driven by production cuts in Ex China undermined by China production gains; LME destocking pauses; open interests gains reflecting shorts Aluminium: Open Interest, Lots Source: LME, Adamson 729,806 749,306 774,645 806444 600,000 650,000 700,000 750,000 800,000 850,000 Aluminium: Stock and Cancelled Warrants, T Source: LME, Adamson 5293200 2498925 2250000 2300000 2350000 2400000 2450000 2500000 2550000 5150000 5200000 5250000 5300000 5350000 5400000 5450000 5500000 5550000 Stocks Cancelled Warrants WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Prices are better in March comparing to the previous month, however, still at very undervalued levels; Aluminium current pricing still too high for yearly target Aluminium: Valuation benchmark Adamson -58 -47 -78 -82 -204 -201 -239 -110 -108 -132 -63 -192 -109 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 2013M03 2013M04 2013M05 2013M06 2013M07 2013M08 2013M09 2013M10 2013M11 2013M12 2014M01 2014M02 2014M03 Aluminium: Current Year Model Fundamental Adamson 1561 1630 1668 1,500 1,520 1,540 1,560 1,580 1,600 1,620 1,640 1,660 1,680 Conservative Avg Less Conservative WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

SHFE AL pricing fell sharply with no sign of picking up by weekend, reflecting strong bearish sentiments surrounding fate of economy and financing deals SHFE Aluminium: Spot and 3M Price, RMB Source: SHFE, Adamson 13070 13230 12,700 12,800 12,900 13,000 13,100 13,200 13,300 13,400 13,500 13,600 13,700 Spot 3M Aluminium: Spot and 3M Price, USD Source: LME, Adamson 1729.5 1771 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 Spot 3M WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

The supply tightness in an inverse forward curve has disappeared, turning into a normal contango; restocking has started, signalling re-emerging pressure on soft demand SHFE Aluminium: Stock, T Source: SHFE, Adamson 309654 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 SHFE Aluminium: Futures Curve (USD/t) Source: SHFE, Adamson WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com 12,600 12,800 13,000 13,200 13,400 13,600 13,800 14,000 14,200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 7-Mar-14 10-Jan-14

Copper WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

The biggest copper consumer – China, having its shadow financing sector curbed, means less demand for copper financing deals, discouraging pricing; LME supply tightness Copper: Spot and 3M Price, USD Source: LME, Adamson 6931 6915.5 6,750 6,800 6,850 6,900 6,950 7,000 7,050 7,100 7,150 7,200 7,250 Spot 3M Copper: Futures Curve (USD/t) Source: LME, Adamson 7107 7060 7000 6975 6950 6930.5 6915.5 6895 6880 6870 6,750 6,800 6,850 6,900 6,950 7,000 7,050 7,100 7,150 4/02/2014 7/03/2014 WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

While destocking continues, it is happening at a slower pace, there are demand side concerns; open interests fell, reflecting long liquidation Copper: Stock and Cancelled Warrants, T Source: LME, Adamson Copper: Open Interest, Lots Source: LME, Adamson 256,412 258,687 268,946 262435 250,000 252,000 254,000 256,000 258,000 260,000 262,000 264,000 266,000 268,000 270,000 269000 134450 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 Stocks Cancelled Warrants WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Undervaluation worsens for copper in March, the combo of bad news from China means the metal will remain depressed in the short term; pricing still too high for target Copper: Valuation benchmark Adamson -173 -327 -316 -504 -875 -747 -731 -372 -248 -216 143 -326 -339 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 2013M03 2013M04 2013M05 2013M06 2013M07 2013M08 2013M09 2013M10 2013M11 2013M12 2014M01 2014M02 2014M03 Copper: Current Year Model Fundamental Adamson 6268 6536 6687 6,000 6,100 6,200 6,300 6,400 6,500 6,600 6,700 6,800 Conservative Avg Less Conservative WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

SHFE copper pricing collapses similar to LME, capturing the correlating factors that are originating from China SHFE Copper: Spot and 3M Price, RMB Source: SHFE, Adamson 48840 48920 47,000 47,500 48,000 48,500 49,000 49,500 50,000 50,500 51,000 51,500 Spot 3M Copper: Spot and 3M Price, USD Source: LME, Adamson 6931 6915.5 6,750 6,800 6,850 6,900 6,950 7,000 7,050 7,100 7,150 7,200 7,250 Spot 3M WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Forward curves show a slight contango; there is a slight degree of tightness in near-dated contracts; restocking starts to gain momentum, demand brought into question SHFE Copper: Futures Curve (USD/t) Source: SHFE, Adamson 47,500 48,000 48,500 49,000 49,500 50,000 50,500 51,000 51,500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 7-Mar-14 27-Jan-14 SHFE Copper: Stock, T Source: SHFE, Adamson 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Zinc WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Zinc’s rise was also affected by the latest economic developments, however, at a lesser degree than other base metals; there is supply tightness in near-dated contracts Zinc: Spot and 3M Price, USD Source: LME, Adamson 2094.5 2067.5 1,850 1,900 1,950 2,000 2,050 2,100 2,150 2,200 Spot 3M Zinc: Futures Curve (USD/t) Source: LME, Adamson 1965 1965 2018 2038 2033 2094.5 2067.5 2103 2108 2103 1,850 1,900 1,950 2,000 2,050 2,100 2,150 4/02/2014 7/03/2014 WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Zinc has seen its stock level to pick up for the first time in a while, signalling a hit on demand for base metals; open interests gained as long liquidations entered the market Zinc: Stock and Cancelled Warrants, T Source: LME, Adamson Zinc: Open Interest, Lots Source: LME, Adamson 292,563 287,378 296,121 319372 270,000 280,000 290,000 300,000 310,000 320,000 330,000 776000 166450 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000 1000000 Stocks Cancelled Warrants WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Zinc is still overvalued, and doing much better than the rest of the basket; as a result, it exceeds its price target quite a bit, with room for fall Zinc: Valuation benchmark Adamson -1.3 -2.3 -5.7 -4.0 -13.5 -13.2 -17.8 -7.0 -2.8 3.6 16.0 6.0 13.9 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 2013M03 2013M04 2013M05 2013M06 2013M07 2013M08 2013M09 2013M10 2013M11 2013M12 2014M01 2014M02 2014M03 Zinc: Current Year Model Fundamental Adamson 182 190 194 176 178 180 182 184 186 188 190 192 194 196 Conservative Avg Less Conservative WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

SHFE Zinc has not been performing at par with LME Zinc, price mainly fluctuated and fell in the recent week SHFE Zinc: Spot and 3M Price, RMB Source: SHFE, Adamson 14990 15170 14,700 14,800 14,900 15,000 15,100 15,200 15,300 15,400 Spot 3M Zinc: Spot and 3M Price, USD Source: LME, Adamson 2094.5 2067.5 1,850 1,900 1,950 2,000 2,050 2,100 2,150 2,200 Spot 3M WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Zinc is in a normal contango with no supply side tightness; restocking is strong for the metal in SHFE warehouses, underlying pressure from demand SHFE Zinc: Futures Curve (USD/t) Source: SHFE, Adamson 14,600 14,700 14,800 14,900 15,000 15,100 15,200 15,300 15,400 15,500 15,600 15,700 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 7-Mar-14 27-Jan-14 SHFE Zinc: Stock, T Source: SHFE, Adamson 269802 200,000 210,000 220,000 230,000 240,000 250,000 260,000 270,000 280,000 WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Lead WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Lead performs in along a similar pattern as Zinc, price fluctuated and fell; curve is normal with no supply side tightness Lead: Spot and 3M Price, USD Source: LME, Adamson 2084.5 2112 2,020 2,040 2,060 2,080 2,100 2,120 2,140 2,160 2,180 2,200 Spot 3M Lead: Futures Curve (USD/t) Source: LME, Adamson 2091.5 2110 2148 2168 2172 2084.5 2112 2155 2173 2177 2,020 2,040 2,060 2,080 2,100 2,120 2,140 2,160 2,180 2,200 4/02/2014 7/03/2014 WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Stocks have been rising for lead on the LME, underlying some pressure for the metal; open interests gained as long liquidations occured Lead: Stock and Cancelled Warrants, T Source: LME, Adamson Lead: Open Interest, Lots Source: LME, Adamson 114,350 121,129 125,167 134348 100,000 105,000 110,000 115,000 120,000 125,000 130,000 135,000 140,000 203975 32900 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 190000 195000 200000 205000 210000 215000 220000 Stocks Cancelled Warrants WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Lead has become undervalued after a brief month being overvalued; the price however is within its yearly target range Lead: Valuation benchmark Adamson 6.8 -2.1 -3.6 1.8 -14.5 -9.5 -18.5 -8.1 -4.0 -3.2 5.4 -6.9 -5.1 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 2013M03 2013M04 2013M05 2013M06 2013M07 2013M08 2013M09 2013M10 2013M11 2013M12 2014M01 2014M02 2014M03 Lead: Current Year Model Fundamental Adamson 198 205 210 190 192 194 196 198 200 202 204 206 208 210 212 Conservative Avg Less Conservative WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

SHFE lead deteriorated in February, undermined by worries over China’s economy SHFE Lead: Spot and 3M Price, RMB Source: SHFE, Adamson 13700 13875 13,400 13,500 13,600 13,700 13,800 13,900 14,000 14,100 14,200 Spot 3M Lead: Spot and 3M Price, USD Source: LME, Adamson 2084.5 2112 2,020 2,040 2,060 2,080 2,100 2,120 2,140 2,160 2,180 2,200 Spot 3M WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

There has been little change for lead stock; the metal is in a normal forward curve SHFE Lead: Futures Curve (USD/t) Source: SHFE, Adamson 13,200 13,400 13,600 13,800 14,000 14,200 14,400 14,600 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 7-Mar-14 27-Jan-14 SHFE Lead: Stock, T Source: SHFE, Adamson 84312 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Gold WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Gold benefits from Ukrainian uncertainties, greater inflation and Chinese buying; seen as a safe haven, the precious metal has a rather flat near-dated curve Gold: Spot Price, USD Source: CME, Adamson 1341.1 1,290 1,300 1,310 1,320 1,330 1,340 1,350 1,360 Spot Gold: Futures Curve (USD/oz) Source: LME, Adamson 1,336 1,338 1,340 1,342 1,344 1,346 1,348 1,350 1,352 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Gold stocks gained somewhat over the week; open interest fell slightly, with a mixture of long liquidation and short covering Gold: Inventories, Troy ounce Source: CME, Adamson Gold: Open interest, futures positions Source: CME, Adamson 383,021 415,426 410,959 382,739 368,279 376,973 390,535 387,503 340,000 350,000 360,000 370,000 380,000 390,000 400,000 410,000 420,000 7,777,823 7,809,244 7,463,277 7,141,392 7,143,618 7,177,094 6,800,000 7,000,000 7,200,000 7,400,000 7,600,000 7,800,000 8,000,000 WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Gold is almost at value given current pricing; its pricing however, has far exceeded its yearly target, with room for fall Gold: Valuation Benchmark Adamson -54 -115 -186 -231 -322 -265 -240 -193 -161 -204 -111 -64 -14 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 2013M03 2013M04 2013M05 2013M06 2013M07 2013M08 2013M09 2013M10 2013M11 2013M12 2014M01 2014M02 2014M03 Gold: Current Year Model Outlook Adamson 1094 1141 1168 1,040 1,060 1,080 1,100 1,120 1,140 1,160 1,180 Conservative Avg Less Conservative WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Silver WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Silver has been unable to cash in on the geo-political volatilities that have been positively driving other precious metals, silver continues to perform poorly Silver: Spot Price, USD Source: CME, Adamson 20.875 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5 Spot Silver: Futures Curve (USD/oz) Source: LME, Adamson 20.20 20.40 20.60 20.80 21.00 21.20 21.40 21.60 21.80 22.00 22.20 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 Jul-17 Dec-17 Jul-18 WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Inventories continue to pile up for silver; open interests fell as long liquidation dominated Silver: Inventories, Troy ounce Source: CME, Adamson Silver: Open interest, futures positions Source: CME, Adamson 131,294 136,158 139,468 144,244 149,163 147,988 147,035 144,305 120,000 125,000 130,000 135,000 140,000 145,000 150,000 155,000 176,502,272 177,109,451 178,499,380 179,408,695 181,755,486 182,830,730 173,000,000 174,000,000 175,000,000 176,000,000 177,000,000 178,000,000 179,000,000 180,000,000 181,000,000 182,000,000 183,000,000 184,000,000 WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Silver has been recovering from its massive undervaluation; its current pricing is however too high for its yearly target Silver: Valuation Benchmark Adamson -157 -392 -598 -725 -912 -698 -548 -438 -385 -457 -263 -156 -104 -1000 -900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 2013M03 2013M04 2013M05 2013M06 2013M07 2013M08 2013M09 2013M10 2013M11 2013M12 2014M01 2014M02 2014M03 Silver: Current Year Model Fundamental Adamson 1447 1537 1587 1,350 1,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 1,600 Conservative Avg Less Conservative WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Platinum WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Platinum has been a beneficiary of the Russian-Ukrainian tension, being the largest supplier of the precious metal, volatilities have been driving prices up Platinum: Spot Price, USD Source: CME, Adamson 1476 1,320 1,340 1,360 1,380 1,400 1,420 1,440 1,460 1,480 1,500 Spot Platinum: Futures Curve (USD/t) Source: LME, Adamson 1,474 1,475 1,476 1,477 1,478 1,479 1,480 1,481 1,482 1,483 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Inventories reduced slightly over the week; open interests gained as shorts drove prices down Platinum: Inventories, Troy ounce Source: CME, Adamson Platinum: Open interest, futures positions Source: CME, Adamson 59,561 58,636 60,358 60,923 61,388 63,300 63,376 64,653 55,000 56,000 57,000 58,000 59,000 60,000 61,000 62,000 63,000 64,000 65,000 66,000250,568 250,518 250,216 245,469 249,568 249,260 242,000 243,000 244,000 245,000 246,000 247,000 248,000 249,000 250,000 251,000 WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Platinum is slightly undervalued at its current level; it is also still higher than its yearly target range Platinum: Valuation benchmark Adamson 35 -9 -42 -80 -181 -131 -163 -133 -68 -152 -21 -56 10 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 2013M03 2013M04 2013M05 2013M06 2013M07 2013M08 2013M09 2013M10 2013M11 2013M12 2014M01 2014M02 2014M03 Platinum: Current Year Model Fundamental Adamson 1292 1352 1385 1,240 1,260 1,280 1,300 1,320 1,340 1,360 1,380 1,400 Conservative Avg Less Conservative WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Additional Data WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

Steel prices continued to fall, dragging Iron Ore and the Aussie Dollar SHFE Steel Rebar: Spot and 3M Price, RMB Source: SHFE, Adamson 3,100 3,150 3,200 3,250 3,300 3,350 3,400 3,450 3,500 3,550 Spot 3M SHFE Steel Wire: Spot and 3M Price, RMB Source: SHFE, Adamson 3,150 3,200 3,250 3,300 3,350 3,400 3,450 3,500 3,550 Spot 3M WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

SHFE Aluminium: Open Interest, Lots Source: SHFE, Adamson 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 SHFE Copper: Open Interest, Lots Source: SHFE, Adamson 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

SHFE Zinc: Open Interest, Lots Source: SHFE, Adamson 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 SHFE Gold: Open Interest, Lots Source: SHFE, Adamson 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 WeeklyMetalsTracker SUBSCRIBE HERE | http://www.adamsoncommodities.myinstapage.com Or email us: consult@adamsonassociate.com

DISCLAIMER This publication is produced by Adamson Associates Limited and/or its affiliates, and distributed by Adamson Associates Limited and/or its affiliates, except to the extent expressly provided herein. This publication and the contents hereof are intended for information purposes only, and may be subject to change without further notice. Any use, disclosure, distribution, dissemination, copying, printing or reliance on this publication for any other purpose without our prior consent or approval is strictly prohibited. Neither Adamson Associates Limited nor any of its respective parent, holding, subsidiaries or affiliates, nor any of its respective directors, officers, and employees, represent nor warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or as to the existence of other facts which might be significant, and will not accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any use of or reliance upon this publication or any of the contents hereof. Neither this publication, nor any content hereof, constitute, or are to be constructed as, an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any of the securities or investments mentioned herein in any country or jurisdiction nor, unless expressly provided, any recommendation or investment opinion or advice. Any view, recommendation, opinion or advice expressed in this publication may not necessarily reflect those of Adamson Associates Limited, and/or its affiliates nor any of its respective directors, officers, and employees except where the publication states otherwise. This research report is not to be relied upon by any person in making any investment decision or otherwise advising with respect to, or dealing in, the securities mentioned, as it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person.

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