Mehta nifa talk-final

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Information about Mehta nifa talk-final

Published on December 28, 2016

Author: NIFA_IBCE

Source: slideshare.net

1. Predictability of Impacts of Decadal Climate Variability on Water and Crop Yields in the Missouri River Basin, and Its Use in Agricultural Adaptation Vikram M. Mehta The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Catonsville, Maryland Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016 Supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture – National Institute of Food and Agriculture Grant 2011-67003-30213 under the NSF-USDA-DOE Earth System Modeling Program. ⦿ Objectives of this project ⦿ Importance of the Missouri River Basin (MRB) ⦿ Decadal climate variability (DCV) impacts on MRB water and crops ⦿ Data and models ⦿ Major accomplishments and other outcomes ⦿ The future?

2. The Team Vikram Mehta, Norman Rosenberg, Katherin Mendoza, and Hui Wang The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Catonsville, Maryland Cody Knutson, Nicole Wall, Tonya Haigh, and Tonya Bernadt National Drought Mitigation Center, Univ. of Nebraska – Lincoln, Nebraska Bruce McCarl, Mario Fernandez, Pei Huang, Jinxiu Ding, Theepakorn Jithitikulchai Raghavan Srinivasan, Prasad Daggupati, and Deb Debjani Texas A & M University, College Station, Texas Amita Mehta and Saikumar Popuri NASA-UMBC Joint Center for Earth System Technology, Catonsville, Maryland Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

3. Using the Missouri River Basin as a case study: ☞ To develop an ‘end-to-end’, decadal climate and impacts prediction system ☞ To develop an adaptive water and agriculture management system Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016 Overarching Objectives

4. Importance of the Missouri River Basin Missouri River Basin Largest river basin in the US Covers 500,000 sq. miles, 10 States, many Native American reservations, parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan Value of crops and livestock over $100 billion per year 117 million acres cropland, only 12 million acres irrigated Produces 46% of wheat, 22% of grain corn, 34% of cattle in the United States Dependence on the Missouri River for drinking water, irrigation and industrial needs, hydro-electricity, recreation, navigation, and fish and wildlife habitat Over 2000 urban centers of various sizes Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

5. Urban Areas in the Missouri River Basin Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016 Over 2000 urban areas Increasing competition for water among various sectors

6. Droughts and Water in the Main Stem Reservoirs Water in the Main Stem Reservoirs Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016 Severe to Extreme DroughtArea (Lower figure, courtesy Kevin Grody, USACE)

7. Pacific Decadal Oscillation and wheat production in the MRB Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016 Average production 6.6 million tons Average production 13.8 million tons Correlation coefficients between the PDO and wheat production time series 0.5 without smoothing and 0.65 after smoothing all time series.

8. Decadal Climate and Impacts Information for Decision Support in the Missouri River Basin DCV phenomena Influences on Basin hydro- meteorology Influences on Agriculture Urban water Industries Navigation Recreation Others Rural and urban economies; Local, regional, national, international economies Adaptation strategies via understanding, prediction, and scenario development Data, information, and decision- support systems Active involvement of stakeholders and policymakers Applications In various sectors A system adaptable to other river basins also Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

9. Data and Models ◉ Observed streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey: Many gauge locations, 1961 - 2010 ◉ Crop yield estimates from the USDA – National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS): County totals, 1961 - 2010 ◉Observations-based precipitation, daily max. and min. temperatures, surface winds, surface air humidity: 12 km x 12 km, 1961 - 2010 ◉Decadal sea-surface temperature and hydro-meteorological predictions by 4 Earth System Models (NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL CM2.1, UKMO-HadCM3, and MIROC5): Monthly, various spatial resolutions, 1961 to 2010 ◉Calibrated and validated 12 km x 12 km version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the entire MRB ◉ Water and crop choices model RIVERSIM, optimized for the MRB Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

10. Hybrid Dynamical-Statistical Prediction System for Decadal Climate and Hydro-meteorology 1961 – 2010 ocean- atmosphere- land hindcasts Earth System Model (ESM) 1961-2010 =me history of greenhouse gases, volcanic and other aerosol op=cal depths, solar radia=on; Projected values aFer 2010 Ensemble ini=aliza=on system; 10-year experiments ini=alized in 1960, 1970, …, 2000 2011 – 2036 ocean- atmosphere- land forecasts Dynamical System for SST Prediction (CMIP5) Models used in this study Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016 GFDL – CM2.1 UKMO – HadCM3 MIROC5 NCAR – CCSM4

11. SWAT Setup and Calibration - Validation ŸCharacterization of ~ 14,000 watersheds ŸSub-watersheds and streams ŸLanduse – land cover at 30 m resolution, crop rotation and irrigation ŸIrrigated land and soil data ŸPrecipitation, temperature, winds, solar radiation data at 12 km x 12 km ŸCrop yield calibration; Winter and spring wheat, corn (dryland and irrigated), soybean (dryland and irrigated) ŸWater yield (total surface and base flow) calibration ŸWater abstractions and other man- made changes not captured Calibration and validation in each of these 11 land use classes Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

12. Types of SWAT Experiments SWATObserved Hydro- meteorological data; 1961 - 2010 Idealized Hydro- meteorological data from DCV scenarios Water yield, stream flow, crop yields Comparison with observed data; 1961 - 2010 SWAT Water yield, stream flow, crop yields Inter-comparison of impacts of scenarios SWATHindcast Hydro- meteorological data; 1961 - 2010 Water yield, stream flow, crop yields Comparison with observed data; 1961 - 2010 Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

13. Observed and SWAT-simulated streamflow anomalies (cu. m/s) in wet (1982-86) and dry (1987-90) Epochs Dry: 1987 - 90 Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016 USGS SWAT Wet: 1982 - 86 USGS SWAT Decreased flows in western Montana and northern Kansas, and increased flows elsewhere Increased flows in western Montana and northern Kansas, and decreased flows elsewhere

14. Observed and SWAT-simulated winter wheat yield anomalies (t/ha) in wet (1982-86) and dry (1987-90) Epochs Wet: 1982 - 86 Dry: 1987 - 90 Decreased yields in western Montana and southeast MRB, and increased yields elsewhere Increased yields in western Montana and southeast MRB, and decreased yields elsewhere NASS Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016 SWAT NASS SWAT

15. Selected sub-basins for development of predictability and adaptation methodologies Platte Lower Grand James Marias Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

16. Decadal prediction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index by the MIROC5 Earth System Model: 1981-2020 Vertical dashed lines – forecast start times Shading: ±1 std. dev. of ensemble Impacts prediction periods indicated by PDO+ 1982-84 2003-06 PDO- 1988-90 2007-13 Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

17. ehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA Winter wheat prediction in the Platte River sub-basin Winter wheat yield anomaly prediction with 50-year NASS data statistics PDO+ Winter wheat yield anomaly prediction with SWAT Actual 1982-84 Actual yield anomalies PDO- Actual 1988-90 Predicted PDO+ 1982-84 Predicted PDO- 1988-90 Vikram M 17 December 2016

18. ehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA Barley prediction in the Marias sub-basin Barley yield anomaly prediction with 50-year NASS data statistics Barley yield anomaly prediction with SWAT Actual 1982-84 Actual yield anomalies Predicted PDO+ 1982-84 Predicted PDO- 1988-90 Actual 1988-90 PDO+ PDO- Vikram M 17 December 2016

19. Corn prediction in the James River sub-basin Corn yield anomaly prediction with 50-year NASS data statistics Actual yield anomalies Predicted PDO+ 2003-06 Predicted PDO- 2007-13 Actual 2003-06 Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016 Actual 2007-13

20. Why is there value? ŸDecision makers would likely make adjustments for revised expectations of crop yields and water supply. v If farmers knew water demands would be higher and supplies smaller, they might plant a smaller area. v If they knew some crop yields would be lower and others higher, they might shift crop mix. v If water planners knew water would be short, they might encourage conservation, reduce use, and negotiate options to buy out some agricultural water rights. ŸThese actions compared to actions based on the historical climatic record would generate value. Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016 Value of decadal climate information to MRB agriculture

21. Difference 82 29 53 • Modeling Scope – 16 crops, 411 counties in MRB; irrigated and dryland cropping; municipal and industrial water use – DCV impacts on 5 crops: wheat (spring and winter), corn, sorghum, soybeans; hydrological flow balance; reservoir storage • Uncertainty about which combination of phases of major DCV phenomena will occur in the next one year • Includes crop insurance Value of DCV Information (in million $) Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016 Perfect information on next year’s DCV phase relative to historical frequency Reduced uncertainty on next year’s DCV phase (based on this year’s phase) relative to historical frequency Water and Agriculture Choices RIVERSIM model

22. NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA Decadal climate variability based crop adaptation options for farmers Example: Corn – soybean – wheat – hay planting choices in the Platte River sub-basin, given DCV phase combination prediction PDO+, TAG- PDO-, TAG+ Vikram Mehta 17 December 2016 Corn Corn Hay Hay Soybeans Soybeans Winter wheat Winter wheat

23. Summary of accomplishments • Simulations of DCV phenomena and their decadal predictability assessed in four Earth System Models (ESMs) • Statistical hydro-meteorological prediction system, using predicted DCV indices as predictors, developed • Statistical downscaling scheme developed for ESM data • Very high resolution land use-hydrology-crop model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) calibrated and validated for the MRB; water and crop yield simulation and prediction experiments conducted Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

24. Summary of accomplishments •Skillful, multiyear to decadal prediction of indices of the PDO and other DCV phenomena possible in some cases, especially since the 1980s. •These predicted DCV indices are shown to be useful for multiyear to decadal prediction of water yields, streamflow, and crop yields in the Missouri River Basin. •The predicted crop yields are shown to be useful for, among other applications, adaptation of choice of crops to plant. •Value of DCV information to MRB agricultural economy estimated at $30 – 80 million per year. Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

25. Research Capacity-building Project people: 6 senior scientists, 2 research scientists, 1 post-doctoral scientist,1 research associate, 5 Ph.D. students, 16 undergrad. students, 3 outreach specialists, 1 web programmer, 1 administrative officer, 1 information technologist Minorities and Under-represented groups: 6 women, 1 Hispanic Institution network: 1 non-profit organization and 3 Universities Project website: Missouri.crces.org Stakeholder Advisory Team (SAT): Representatives from water, agriculture, and natural resources management sectors in the MRB; academics; state and federal officials Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

26. Other outcomes Completed Ph.D.s: 4 (TexasA & M University) Ph.D. in progress: 1 (University of Maryland – Baltimore County (UMBC)) Undergraduate student interns: 16 in UMBC under the NSF Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) Program Papers published: 7; Papers in preparation: 4 Conference/Workshop and other talks and posters: 10 Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

27. The Future? ●Decadal prediction of water and crop yields at the county level and development of fine-scale adaptation options in the MRB. ●County-level assessment of value of DCV information to agricultural economy in the MRB. ● Simulation and prediction of coupled food-energy-water securities in the MRB and the Mississippi River Basin. ● Adaptation of models and methodologies to the Mississippi and Ohio River Basins to develop prediction and adaptation systems for water, crops, and water-borne transportation of agricultural and other materials/products. Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

28. Thank you! Vikram Mehta NIFAPDs’Meeting, San Francisco, CA 17 December 2016

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