Matthew Hopkinson, Local Data Company - Solocal Group UK Event "How To Drive Online Traffic To Local Stores", February 27, 2014

More Clicks, Less Bricks? The Local Data Company Matthew Hopkinson #HighStreet 26th February 2014

People are supposed to fear the unknown, but ignorance is bliss when knowledge is so damn frightening.” ‘ Laurell K. Hamilton, The Laughing Corpse

Today’s Agenda Current state of GB Retail Role of Data National, Regional and Sectors Insights Partnership Insights Summary Q&A

Methodology • 7,000+ locations • Field visited • 60,000 visits a month Seeing is believing!

NATIONWIDE COVERAGE BUSINESSES TRACKED 554,096 LOCATIONS TRACKED 7,000 TOWNS RETAIL PARKS SHOPPING CENTRES 850 1,124 897

Some of the clients who We Service

Consumer Confidence Source GfK

Media Interest

High Street Reviews

Breaking News! ✚ 748 stores 459 stores -3% (22 store closures) -8% (40 store closures) 42% on High Street 72% on Retail Parks

All Change!

The car is KING!

Change Afoot! FAILURES CLOSURES OPENINGS

Destination v Decimation

Vacancy rates

North v South Greater London

2013-12 2013-10 2013-08 2013-06 2013-04 2013-02 2012-12 2012-10 2012-08 2012-06 2012-04 2012-02 2011-12 2011-10 2011-08 2011-06 2011-04 2011-02 2010-12 2010-10 2010-08 2010-06 2010-04 2010-02 2009-12 2009-10 2009-08 2009-06 2009-04 2009-02 2008-12 GB Shop Vacancy 2008-2013 15,0 14,5 14,0 13,5 13,0 12,5 12,0 11,5 11,0 10,5 10,0 9,5 9,0 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0

2013 GB Retail & Leisure (All) Vacancy Rates 12,60 12,50 12,40 12,30 12,20 12,10 12,00 11,90 2013-01 2013-02 2013-03 2013-04 2013-05 2013-06 2013-07 2013-08 2013-09 2013-10 2013-11 2013-12

National Vacancy Rates

Regional Change 2012-2013

Vacancy – GB’s Worst Performing Towns Region Area 2013 Vacancy 2012 Vacancy Change North West West End, Morecambe 32.9 27.2 5.8 Wales Newport, Monmouthshire 28.9 27.3 1.6 North West Bolton 27.8 21.6 6.2 North East Hartlepool 27.7 27.3 0.3 North West Bootle 27.0 23.3 3.7 North West Church Street, Runcorn 26.8 27.6 -0.8 West Midlands Walsall 26.7 25.4 1.3 West Midlands West Bromwich 26.6 24.3 2.3 North East Stockton-on-Tees 26.3 23.7 2.6 North West Eccles 25.8 26.1 -0.2

Vacancy- GB’s Best Performing Towns Region Area 2013 Vacancy 2012 Vacancy Change Greater London Highgate 0.0 4.7 -4.7 East Midlands Eastgate, Lincoln 1.3 2.6 -1.3 South East Molesey Lock 1.4 4.3 -2.9 Greater London Barking Road West 1.6 3.3 -1.7 Greater London St. John’s Wood 1.6 4.0 -2.4 Greater London Askew Road, Hammersmith 1.8 5.2 -3.4 West Midlands Shirley Street, Solihull 1.8 3.4 -1.7 West Midlands Thornton Heath 1.8 5.1 -3.3 North East Woodford Green 1.8 5.3 -3.5 North West Debden 2.0 0.0 2.0

Town Centre Shop Vacancy – 3 year change 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% More than - Neg 10-19% 20% Neg 5-9% Neg 4-1% Flat 0% Pos 1 - 4% Pos 5-9% 10-20% Pos 20% +

North v South Divide?

Regional Groupings 2013 v 2012 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 North (NW, NE, Y&H) Midlands & East South (SW & SE) London

Averages - NW v SE North West Average Vacancy % 17.4 North West Average Retail Park Vacancy % 10.1 North West Average Shopping Centre Vacancy % 19.3 South East Average Vacancy % 11.8 South East Average Retail Park Vacancy % 6.3 South East Average Shopping Centre Vacancy % 14.3

The Ruling Class? Westfield London Braehead Metro Centre Bullring Meadowhall Trinity Leeds Trafford Centre Liverpool One St David's Cardiff 0% 5% 10% Shop Vacancy Rates 15% 20% 25%

Brands As a consumer, you want to associate with brands whose powerful presence creates a halo effect that rubs off on you. Tom Peters The way customers relate to brands and how profit is generated has changed so dramatically almost every professional is being challenged to reconsider what they do in order to stay relevant. Simon Mainwaring

Openings & Closures

Openings & Closures (Net Change) 2009-2013 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 All 0,50 0,00 2009 -0,50 -1,00 2010 2011 2012 2013

Openings & Closures (Net Change) 2009-2013 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 Multiples 1,00 Independents 0,00 2009 -1,00 -2,00 -3,00 2010 2011 2012 2013

The last 3 years – top 650 Town Centres 143,960 openings and closures Net Change % Units Net Change Comparison -4.32 -3,083 Convenience 5.10 830 Leisure 2.29 1,200 Service 3.84 1,993 Total 0.49 940 BUT Multiples = -1,741 (-2.35%) Independents = +2,681 (+2.28)

Risers 2013 GB wide

Fallers 2013 GB Wide

Footfall attractors – Fashion & Clothing

Footfall attractors – anchor tenants

Footfall attractors – new kids on the block!

Scotland’s Towns – Case study Partner research with University of Stirling (Professor Leigh Sparks) in 2013 on top 100 towns. What is the retail scale and make-up of Scottish towns and cities? 2. How variable are Scottish towns and cities in their retailing? 3. How significant is retail vacancy? 4. Can we explain some of the patterns found?

Retail Types: BMGC (Booze, Money, Gambling, Charity) City Off Pawnbroker Bookmaker Cheque Licence Centre Charity Index Shop Aberdeen 0.16 0.08 1.47 0.41 2.61 4.73 Dundee 0.34 0.46 1.38 0.46 1.84 4.48 Stirling 0.0 0.98 1.72 0.49 0.49 3.68 Inverness 0.62 0.42 1.25 0.62 0.21 3.12 Perth 0.37 0.19 1.12 0.56 0.19 2.42 Glasgow 0.2 0.26 0.73 0.18 0.35 1.72 Edinburgh 0.44 0.1 0.49 0.13 0.28 1.44 Source:LDC and University of Stirling

“Change is inevitable. Change is constant.” Benjamin Disraeli

Best Total Diversity 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Town Diversity Index 0.87 Central London 0.61 Edinburgh 0.59 Brighton and Hove 0.55 Glasgow 0.53 Nottingham 0.51 Bath 0.51 York 0.50 Bristol 0.50 West London 0.49 Norwich 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Town Manchester Derby Exeter Leicester Cheltenham Tunbridge Wells Scarborough Liverpool Harrogate Salisbury Diversity Index 0.49 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.44

Worst Total Diversity 1 2 Town Milton Keynes Ilford 3 4 5 6 7 Wood Green Oldham Weymouth Peckham Stockton-on-Tees 8 9 10 St. Helens Wigan Scunthorpe Diversity Index 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 11 12 Town Luton Burnley 13 14 15 16 17 Torquay Walthamstow Sutton Brixton Richmond, London 18 19 20 Putney Paisley Rugby Diversity Index 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29

Milliband Index

Summary • More business failures/closures to come = more empty premises • Significant variance in performance by location and type • NEW AGE Technology is driving consolidation • OLD AGE Property costs deterring occupation • ‘All inclusive’ locations will get the consumers • What can be done with the 15% + vacancy locations? • Knowledge and understanding of national trends applied locally is key • Ignore consumers at your peril!

“To open a shop is easy, to keep it open is an art.” Chinese Proverb

BRINGING DATA ALIVE! Thank you! matthew@localdatacompany.com @matthehopkinson (0) 20 3111 4393 www.localdatacompany.com