Published on March 7, 2014
India-Global Market Summary 7-3-2014 • Market surged to record high, driven by sharp gains in domestic-focused sectors viz. banking, realty, construction and capital goods on speculation the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will be able to form the next government at Centre. Sensex hit record high near to 22,000 level and Nifty struck record high above 6,500. The market sentiment boosted by data showing that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) made heavy purchases of Indian stocks on Thursday, 6 March 2014. The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was negative. Nifty rose 1.96% to 6526.65 and Sensex rose 1.89% to 21919.79 • Reliance Industries (RIL) jumped. Construction stocks surged. Banking and capital good shares surged. Realty stocks extended their recent strong gains. Cement stocks also participated in the rally. • Investors are betting that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will be able to form the next government at the centre with support from some regional parties after Lok Sabha elections in April-May this year. The BJP with its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is considered more pro-business and a more pro-reform party than the Congress party. • The goal of economic stability must include price stability and growth and the government has the right to set the inflation target, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said at a press conference today, 7 March 2014. The Finance Minister also said the Reserve Bank of India and the government were broadly convergent on deputy governor Urjit Patel's monetary policy committee report released in late January. Chidambaram said the inflation target will be set by the parliament and the Reserve Bank of India will implement it.
• • • • • • On the political front, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to do well in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections according to CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS national election tracker and seat projections by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Rajeeva Karandikar. As per the survey, NDA is projected to win 212-232 seats. The Congress-led UPA is projected to get 119-139. The survey indicates that the BJP alone is expected to get 193-213 seats and the Congress alone can get 94-110 seats. Mamata Banerjee led TMC is expected to emerge as the third largest party with 20-28 seats. The Left Front is expected to win just 15-23 seats. Tamil Nadu CM J Jayalalithaa led AIADMK is likely to win 14-20 seats, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSR Congress Party is projected to get 11-17 seats, Mulayam Singh Yadav led SP is likely to get 11-17 seats, Naveen Patnaik led BJD is expected to win 10-16 seats, The TDP led by N Chandrababu Naidu is expected to win 10-16 seats, M Karunanidhi led DMK is expected to win 10-16 seats, Mayawati's BSP is projected to get 8-14 seats, K Chandrashekhara Rao led TRS is expected get 4-8 seats, former PM HD Deve Gowda's JDS is also expected to get 4-8 seats, the JDU 1-5 seats and the AAP is also projected to get 1-5 seats respectively. The BJP and its allies together (NDA) are expected to get 36% votes and the Congress and its allies are projected to get 29% votes nationally. The BJP alone can get 33% votes and the allies can add 3% more. The Congress is projected to get 26% votes on its own and the allies may contribute 3% extra votes. Both the BJP and the Congress have lost 1% votes each since January survey. While the Congress allies have gained 2% votes, the BJP allies have gained 1% votes since last January. According to election tracker, the BJP is expected do to remarkably well in battleground states of UP and Bihar, where its electoral fortunes have been on a downswing for a long time. However, regional parties are expected to do very well in Andhra Pradesh (including Telangana), Odisha, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. Smaller regional parties like TRS, JDS etc are also expected to retain their relevance at national level by retaining their strength in their respective states, according to the survey. According to CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS election tracker, BJP Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi leads the race for the next prime minister in six states of India. Of the six states, five are key battleground states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The sixth state is Delhi, the stronghold of the AAP led by Arvind Kejriwal. The Lok Sabha elections will be held between 7 April 2014 and 12 May 2014 in nine phases. The counting of votes will be take place on 16 May 2014. The term of the current Lok Sabha expires on June 1 and the new House has to be constituted by May 31. Along with the Lok Sabha election, Andhra Pradesh (AP), including the regions comprising Telangana, Odisha and Sikkim will go to polls to elect new assemblies. AP, Odisha and Sikkim assemblies come to end on June 2, June 7 and May 7 respectively. The United States would welcome Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi if he wins the upcoming election, a US official said, in the clearest sign Washington will drop a travel ban on Modi imposed after anti-Muslim riots in 2002. US Assistant Secretary of State Nisha Biswal told a television interviewer that Washington is ready to do business with Modi, the front runner ahead of the April-May general election who is best placed to form a coalition government. "I would just say that the United States has welcomed every leader of this vibrant democracy, and that a democratically elected leader of India will be a welcome partner," Biswal said in the TV interview when asked if Modi, as prime minister, would be granted a US visa. Biswal made her comments in New Delhi on a visit to rebuild trade and political ties shaken by a row over the arrest in New York last December of an Indian diplomat suspected of visa fraud. Biswal said the United States hoped India would continue to build a tolerant, moderate and secular society when asked if Washington had put its human rights concerns on the back burner because of Modi's political rise. "Visa issues are handled on a case by case basis. And determinations are made based on the facts of the day and are reviewed at the time that a request is made," she said according to a transcript released by the US embassy.
• US Ambassador to India Nancy Powell visited Modi at his home in Gandhinagar in Gujarat last month, ending a long estrangement over riots that erupted in the state in 2002. Britain was the first European country to end its boycott on meeting Modi followed by other European countries last year. • Godrej Consumer Products has entered into an agreement with the Darling Group for increasing its shareholding in Darling South Africa and Mozambique businesses by 4.63% in line with its intent of gradually scaling up its ownership of the Darling businesses. • Central Bank of India rose 1.54% after the state-run bank said it has after due approval sold its entire stake in Credit Information Bureau of India to Transunion International Inc (FII). The announcement was made after market hours on Thursday, 6 March 2014. • Anuh Pharma lost 2.58% as the stock turned ex-dividend today, 7 March 2014, for interim dividend of Rs 1.25 per share for the year ending 31 March 2014 • L&T jumped 5.78% after a foreign brokerage house raised its target price on the stock to Rs 1,305 from Rs 1,137. • Shares of blue chip companies surged with market sentiment boosted by data showing that foreign institutional investors made heavy purchases of Indian stocks on Thursday, 6 March 2014. • Prism Cement rose 1.94% after the company said it has started production of coal at the Prism Coal Mine in Chhindwara, Madhya Pradesh. • Lupin said that it has received final approval for its Doxycycline Capsules USP, 50 mg, 75 mg, and 100 mg from the FDA to market a generic version of Aqua Pharmaceuticals Monodox Capsules 50 mg, 75 mg, and 100 mg. • Zee Entertainment Enterprises said that the company has issued and allotted 20,169,423,120 - 6% Cumulative Redeemable Non-Convertible Preference Shares of Re 1 each fully paid as bonus to the company's equity shareholders • Indian government bond prices fell as the yield on 10-year US Treasury note rose overnight.
Global news • European and Asian markets were closed today for New Year Holidays. A Chinese manufacturing index slipped to a four-month low in December, underscoring challenges for President Xi Jinping as he tries to sustain economic momentum while rolling out reforms. The Purchasing Managers' Index was at 51, the statistics bureau and the logistics federation said today, 1 January 2014, in Beijing. • US stocks rose to records on Tuesday, 31 December 2013, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index posting its biggest annual advance since 1997, as gains in consumer confidence and housing prices bolstered confidence in the world's largest economy. The Conference Board's index of US consumer confidence rose to 78.1 in December from 72 in the prior month while the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed property prices in 20 cities rose in October from a year ago by the most in more than seven years. • The US Federal Reserve said after a two-day monetary policy review on 18 December 2013 that it will cut its monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion starting in January 2014 amid an improved outlook for the job market in the world's largest economy. The US central bank is poised to continue winding down its stimulus measures gradually over the next year.
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