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March 2014 market update seminar public

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Information about March 2014 market update seminar public
Real Estate

Published on March 1, 2014

Author: jdwilton

Source: slideshare.net

Description

The presentation from the 31/1 Market Seminar.
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Weichert, Princeton Junction Office January 2014 Real Estate Market Update

Weichert, Princeton Office January 2014 Real Estate Market Update Joshua D Wilton Managing Broker Princeton Office DaveMcDermott Gold Services Manager Princeton Office

Agenda 1. The Market - A History, Current Conditions and Forecast 2. Strategies for Buying & Selling 3. We are here to help

Agenda 1. The Real Estate Market (a brief history)

Agenda Then…

The Boom… The boom…. Otteau.com

Otteau.com

NJ version of the bust... The NJVersion of the Bust… Otteau.com

2012: State of the Market Affordability will Spur Recovery

Affordability Index Definition: A measure of the financial ability of US Families to buy a house. 100 means that families earning the national median income have just the amount of money needed to qualify for a mortgage on a median priced home. Higher than100 means they have more than enough. Lower than 100 means they have less than enough. Source: NAR Housing Affordability Index 1971 to 2010

194.5 Nov 2011 Affordability Index

NJ version of the bust... The NJVersion of the Bust… Otteau.com

The Forecast…

What’s ahead in 2014…? • Low inventory, high demand in popular price points and neighborhoods • Tight Listing Activity • Multiple Offers • Rising Prices • Repeat, Smart-Money Buyers

Real Estate Market Update What are the ‘experts’ saying about the market now…?

“We expect single-family home sales and housing starts to be at the highest level since 2007.” Frank E. Nothaft Chief Economist at Freddie Mac

"The conditions that led to the robust appreciation experienced earlier this year, including historically low mortgage interest rates, high affordability, low inventory and high demand, are waning. In their place, we're beginning to see more inventory and rising mortgage rates, which will lead to further normalization in the market going forward." Dr. Stan Humphries Zillow Chief Economist

"All those young people who moved in with their parents over the past few Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. years and didn't move out during the recession, there should be pent-up demand for household formation." Jed Kolko Trulia’s Chief Economist

I can do all my own research online… Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years. The Customer….

The Local Market

Online Estimates If the estimate is accurate within 5% you’re talking about a $50,000 swing on a $500,000 estimate The home value could be anywhere from $475,000 - $525,000 And they’re only that close a third of the time

The National Picture

5,500,000 Existing Home Sales 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 S&P Case Shiller 12/2013

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 14% NAR 12/2013

Year-Over-Year % Change in House Sales NORTHEAST WEST Up 6.6% Down 10.1% MIDWEST Unchanged NAR’s Existing Homes Sales Report 12.2013 SOUTH Up 1%

Pending Home Sales 100 = Historically Healthy Level NAR 12/2013

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 12/2013

The New Jersey Picture

Agenda Then… Source: Otteau Valuation Group

The Greater Princeton Picture

Long Term Supply … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast Richardson Commercial

Long Term Demand … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/pub/factbook/merfct.pdf

The Local Market Top 5 Rules in Real Estate Real Estate is Local Real Estate is Local Real Estate is Local Real Estate is Local Real Estate is Local

Mercer County Source: Trend MLS

Somerset County Source: Trend MLS

Middlesex County Source: Trend MLS

Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.

“Market Absorption” Rate Anytown., NJ 107 current active listings 4 reported sales in last 30 days 24.3 = months absorption rate Market Absorption Rate is the Absorption Rate indicates to normal current inventory of 5-6 Months Market number of months it will take a sell the market. homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same. Also referred to as “Months of Inventory” 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

46 Market Scale for Supply & Demand 1 2 3 4 Normal Market Absorption in Months High Supply/Low Demand 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Normal Low Supply/High Demand Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values. As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually. Note: This Market Scale is valid only for absorption rates between 1 and 12 months.

“Market Absorption” Rate Anytown., NJ 107 current active listings 4 reported sales in last 30 days 24.3 = months absorption rate Market Absorption Rate is the Absorption Rate indicates to normal current inventory of 5-6 Months Market number of months it will take a sell the market. homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same. Also referred to as “Months of Inventory” 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

2/25/14 Towns Active Listings Pending in Absorption Last 30 Rate in Days Months Net Gain New Listings (Loss) to in 30 Days Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings West Windsor: All Styles 63 11 5.73 31 20 4 6.4% 1 2 10 West Windsor Condo/ T.Houses 16 1 16 9 8 1 6.3% 0 1 2 West Windsor 55+ 2 0 99 2 2 -- -- 0 0 0 West Windsor Single Family 45 10 4.5 20 10 3 6.7% 1 1 8 Lawrence: All Styles 117 15 7.8 33 18 18 15.4% 8 7 13 Lawrence: Condo/ THouses 33 4 8.3 17 13 2 6.1% 1 4 3 Lawrence: 55+ 6 3 2 1 (2) -- -- 0 0 0 78 8 9.8 15 7 16 20.5% 7 3 10 Lawrence: Single Family

2/25/14 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months Ewing: All Styles 176 13 14 Ewing : Condo/ T.Houses 32 1 Ewing 55+: 1 Ewing: Single Family New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings 26 13 44 25% 12 2 14 32 8 7 4 13% 2 1 2 0 999 1 1 --- --- 0 0 0 143 12 12 18 6 40 28% 10 1 12 East Windsor: All Styles 102 13 8 27 14 22 22% 10 2 14 East Windsor: Condo/ Thouses 57 6 10 21 15 16 28% 8 0 9 East Windsor: 55+ 8 1 8 8 7 --- --- 1 0 0 East Windsor: Single Family 37 6 6 6 0 6 16% 1 2 5

2/25/14 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days 126 10 12.6 25 15 16 12.7% 4 3 4 Hopewell Twp. Condo/ T.Houses 9 1 9.0 3 2 2 22.2% 0 1 1 Hopewell Twp.: 55+ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 1 0 0 Hopewell Twp Single Family 117 9 13.0 22 13 14 11.9% 3 2 3 Hamilton: All Styles 415 35 11.86 87 52 65 15.7% 16 17 34 94 7 13.43 24 17 8 8.5% 0 4 5 4 2 2.00 0 (2) 0 0.0% 0 1 1 317 26 12.19 63 37 57 17.9% 16 12 28 Hopewell Twp. All Styles Hamilton: Condo/ THouses Hamilton: 55+ Hamilton: Single Family Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings

2/25/14 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Robbinsville All Styles 64 18 4 25 7 7 11% 1 4 8 Robbinsville Condo/ T.Houses 32 6 5 15 9 2 6% 1 3 4 Single Family 32 12 3 10 (2) 5 16% 0 1 4 Hightstown Boro: All Styles 32 2 16 6 4 4 13% 2 1 4 Pennington 20 2 10 6 4 3 15% 0 1 0 Hopewell Boro 9 1 9 1 0 0 0% 0 0 1

2/25/14 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorptio n Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Princeton: All Styles 104 11 9.5 35 24 5 4.8% 1 6 13 Princeton: Condo/ Thouses 26 5 5.2 5 0 1 3.8% 0 0 2 Princeton: Single Family 78 6 13 30 24 4 5.1% 1 6 11

2/25/14 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings South Brunswick All Styles 137 17 8 29 12 4 3 8 3 20 South BrunswickCon do/ T.Houses 34 7 5 8 1 -2 1 4 1 8 South Brunswick 55+ 25 0 99 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 South Brunswick Single Family 78 10 8 20 10 6 8 4 2 11 Monroe: All Styles 279 26 10 85 59 7 5 30 2 61 Monroe: 55+ 149 18 8 49 31 2 1 8 1 44 Monroe: Single Family 130 8 16 36 28 5 4 12 1 16

2/25/14 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Montgomery All Styles 77 25 3 31 +6 4 5% 4 2 13 Montgomery Condo/Twnhms 9 3 3 6 +3 0 0 0 0 4 Single Family 68 22 3 25 +3 4 5% 4 2 9 Hillsborough All Styles 129 39 3.3 42 +3 9 7% 6 13 24 Hillsborough Condo/Twnhms 54 18 3 22 +4 5 9% 3 7 11 Hillsborough Single Family 75 21 3.6 20 -1 4 5% 3 6 13

2/25/14 Towns Active Listing s Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Plainsboro All Styles 34 5 6.8 19 14 3 8% 6 0 12 Plainsboro cond0 T’home 5 2 2.5 7 5 0 0 2 0 5 Plainsboro 55+ 10 1 10 3 2 0 0 1 0 3 Plainsboro Single Family 19 2 9.5 9 7 3 16% 3 0 4 Cranbury: All Styles 13 1 13 2 1 4 31% 2 0 3

2006 - 2008 Core Market Comparison: Week of 1/13/14 Town ’12 Inven. Count ‘12 Pending Sales ‘12 Absorp. Rate ‘13 Inven. Count ‘13 Pending Sales ‘13 Absorp. Rate ‘14 Inven. Count ‘14 Pending Sales West Windsor 95 18 5.3 72 12 6 Plainsboro 86 12 7.16 66 10 6.6 34 5 Lawrence 164 14 11.7 154 13 11.8 147 15 202 18 11 142 13 11 102 Hamilton 529 45 11.8 393 41 9.6 Hopewell Twp 135 5 27 105 9 Robbinsville 118 10 12 67 Princeton 137 13 10.5 South Brunswick 220 9 Montgomery 121 17 East Windsor 63 11 ‘14 Absorp. Rate 5.3 Inventory compared to 2012 Inventory compared to 2013 (24%) (13%) (23%) (48%) 7.8 (6%) (5%) 13 8 (30%) (28%) 415 35 11 (25%) 5% 11.7 126 10 12.6 (28%) 20% 17 4 64 18 4 (43%) 4 113 11 10.2 104 11 9.5 (17%) (7) 24 160 17 9 137 17 8 (27%) (14%) 10.1 88 18 4.9 77 25 3 (27%) (12%) 6.8

The Local Market Real Estate is Local It’s Local to the Town It’s Local to the Price Point It’s Local to the Neighborhood/Development It’s Local to the Street Real Estate is Local

Market Absorption Rate Princeton All Inventory 107 current active listings 9.72 months = absorption 11 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 daysrate Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

Market Absorption Rate Princeton NOT Single Family Homes 26 current active listings 6.5 months = absorption 4 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

Market Absorption Rate Princeton Twin or Townhouse 3 bedroom 5 current active listings 2.5 months = absorption 2 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

Market Absorption Rate South Brunswick All Inventory 137 current active listings 8 months = absorption 17 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 daysrate Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

Market Absorption Rate South Brunswick Condo/Townhouse Market 24 current active listings 12 months = absorption 2 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

Market Absorption Rate South Brunswick Princeton Walk Development All Types 3 current active listings 1.5 months = absorption 2 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

Market Absorption Rate South Brunswick Princeton Walk Development Townhomes 0 current active listings 0 months = absorption 1 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

Market Absorption Rate West Windsor 63 current active listings 5.75 months = absorption 11 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 daysrate Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

Market Absorption Rate West Windsor Under $500,000 22 current active listings 5.5 months = absorption 4 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

Market Absorption Rate West Windsor $501,000 - $750,000 15 current active listings 3 months = absorption 5 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

Market Absorption Rate West Windsor $750,000 + 11 current active listings 11 months = absorption 1 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same 5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

Strategies to Buy & Sell in 2014…

2014 Top Buyer Negotiating Strategy…Pay now or Pay more later.

Monroe Lane, Princeton Listed at $650,000 14 offers…

Weichert Buyer prevailed at $740,000

Exact Comp…currently on the market for $749,000…

2. ‘I am going to time the Market and buy/ sell at the time when inventory & buyer count is in my favor…’ Source: MLS

Listing v Contracts: Dec – Jan 2013 Princeton

Listing v Contracts: Dec – Jan 2012, Lawrence Twp.

The Impact of Pricing, Staging and Pre-Inspection on the Salability of A Home..…

Negotiations are about leverage Maximize Yours Source: MLS

Home Pricing All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control. Who is in control?

Effects of Right Pricing: • • • • Promotes a sense of urgency among buyers Promotes a sense of urgency among agents Generates interest and showings Sets the stage for multiple purchase offers in the first 30 days • Offers tend to be higher in relation to list price • Controls negotiations • Results in highest price in shortest time

Effects of Over Pricing: • • • • • Buyer excitement diminishes quickly Extends time house is on the market Results in price reductions May attract “bargain hunters” and discounted offers Results in a lower selling price In the final stages of Over Pricing, after extended days-on-market and several price reductions, a home begins to attract interest from buyers who are looking to profit from sellers under duress. These buyers, often referred to as bottom-feeders, tend to offer deeply discounted prices for homes. ~Jeff Otteau

One Aim Determining your best asking price. Our unique method goes beyond the traditional assessment of comparable home prices by anticipating changing marketing conditions in your area.

Hillsborough The Price Trend Came up with a price of $520,000 We recommended a price of $499,000

Negotiations are about leverage, use the listing price as yours… Listed at $544,900 Reduced to $535,000 Reduced to $509,000 Reduced to $499,000 96 Days on Market 1 Offer Sold for $490,000 The buyer had control

West Windsor The Price Trend Came up with a price of $780,000 We recommended a price of $769,000

Negotiations are about leverage, use the listing price as yours… Listed at $769,000 8 Days on Market 11 Offers Sold for $805,000 The seller had control

Princeton Price Trend Price: $1.275 Appraised by local Appraiser prior to going on market: $1.275

Princeton Put on market at $1.1 million 8 offers Sold in 8 days $1.350 million No contingencies

The Impact of Staging on the Salability of Your Home..…

Home Staging All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control. Who is in control?

What is Home Staging? The process of preparing homes for sale regardless of price, location, or condition to achieve the maximum sales price in the minimum marketing time. The goal is to appeal to the broadest range of BUYERS.

Clean & In Good Repair

“Wow…. I could live here!”

“The Investment in Home Staging is Always Less than Your First Price Reduction!”

Buyers Only Know What They See …

… Not The Way It Is Going To Be.

Home Staging “The investment in home staging is always less than your first price reduction!” *Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007.

Home Staging “The investment in home staging is always less than your first price reduction!” The average increase in sales price of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is 6.9% That is an additional $31,050 on a $450,000 sale *Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007.

The Impact of Inspection & Repairs on the Salability of Your Home..…

Pre - Inspection All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control.

What is ‘Pre-Inspection?’

Pre-Inspection WHAT DOES PRE-INSPECTION INCLUDE? The standard home inspector's report will review the condition of the home's heating system, central air conditioning system (temperature permitting), interior plumbing and electrical systems; the roof, attic, and visible insulation; walls, ceilings, floors, windows and doors; the foundation, basement, and visible structure. It will also advise if any potential environmental hazards were observed.

Pre-Inspection DOESN’T THE BUYER DO THE HOME INSPECTION?

Pre-Inspection • Why do a Pre-Inspection? – Fix EVERYTHING before going on market – Remove objections – Reduce the risk of going ‘off market’ for a buyer who ends up killing the deal – Stay in Control

Its about control.

Real Estate Market Update Weichert Financial Services Dave McDermott Gold Services Manager NMLS #101160 Weichert Financial Services 646-921-1900 dmcdermott@weichertfinancial.com

The Financial Forecast…

Pop Quiz I If you take out a $200,000 30 year fixed payment loan from the bank, what is your monthly payment? A. $1802. B. $1597. C. $1310. D. $998.

My Job is to Provide You the Highest Level of Customer Service in the Industry

My Team…

We put Jim’s Money on the line and Guarantee our performance

I look forward to meeting with you.

What will a real estate company do for me?

This is where you win or lose the sale Source: 2012 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

Making Your Purchase as Smooth as Possible Buying a home involves the careful coordination of many people. Choosing a real estate team you can count on will make the process smoother and easier.

Thank you for your time today.

Resource and Website List www.trendmls.com www.realtor.org www.njar.com www.Otteau.com www.Pre-listing-inspection.com www.Housemaster.com www.Stagingshoppingcenter.com www.realtytrac.com www.njar.com/10k

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