Published on March 5, 2009
Our partners include: Greater Cleveland Partnership Greater Akron Chamber Stark Development Board Team Lorain County Youngstown-Warren Regional Chamber Medina County Economic Development Corporation Northeast Ohio Economic Review March 2008 High-skill industries and jobs fuel continued growth in Northeast Ohio.
The first edition in 2008 of our quarterly Northeast Ohio Economic Review begins by comparing our mix of industries with the U.S. as a whole, and then focuses on projections for the next 10 years. Manufacturing and Headquarters Industry Sectors in the Cleveland Plus™ Region Have Higher Share Than U.S. This chart depicts total output for the U.S. and the 16-county Cleveland Plus™ region. The first six bars represent industries in which Northeast Ohio has a higher share of output than the national average. The final five represent those industries in which NEO’s output is less than the U.S. Output in Northeast Ohio continues to be driven by manufacturing, accounting for nearly 23% of total output. Though employment has declined in manufacturing, it remains a productive and essential component of the economy. Finance and insurance, as well as health care and social assistance, comprise a larger portion of the Northeast Ohio economy than they do nationally. This reflects the significant concentration of internationally recognized companies and institutions in this field. The Cleveland Plus region is also the headquarters for 10 Fortune 500 firms and many others. This strong corporate presence is reflected in the larger than national share of “management of companies and enterprises.” U.S. and Northeast Ohio 2007 Share of Output Manufacturing Finance & Insurance Health Care & Soc Asst Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Mgmt of Companies/Entps All Other Industries Real Estate / Rental & Leasing Public Administration Prof, Sci, & Tech Services Information 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% % of Total 2007 Gross Regional Product U.S. NEO Source: Moody’s Economy.com KEY: Finance, insurance, (applies to both graph #1 & #2) For simplicity, we use “Output” to mean the same as “Gross and health care Regional Product.” This is the total value of economic output less the value of raw material inputs. It is the total value-added component of production derived from a combination of land, comprise a larger labor and capital. portion of the Northeast The designation of “All Other Industries” used in the graphs above refers to a combination of six aggregated industries. Ohio economy than These industries include utilities; educational services; construction; agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting; other they do nationally. services; and mining.
The information sector is expected to grow 34% over the next 10 years. High-Tech Industries to Grow the Fastest; Manufacturing Still Strong This chart ranks NEO industries based on Economy.com’s 10-year growth projections. The information industry is expected to grow the fastest, a total of 34%. Other faster-growing sectors include manufacturing; professional and technical services; and finance and insurance. Despite current perceptions, manufacturing output is projected to continue growing and will remain the largest sector in terms of GRP. Nearly all sectors are expected to grow. One surprising aspect of the Economy.com forecast is the slow growth projected for the health care industry, at both the national and NEO regional level. This is contrary to other national forecasts that show a general continuation of current growth trends in this sector. The regional forecast reflects expectations for the sectoral growth in the state and the U.S. However, local conditions, such as significant capital investments by health care providers in the region, are not factored into the forecast. Northeast Ohio Projected Output Growth: 2007–2017 Billions (2006 Dollars) $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 Information 34% Real Estate/Rental & Leasing 25% Prof, Sci, & Tech Services 22% Manufacturing 22% Finance & Insurance 17% Retail T rade 17% All Other Industries 9% Mgmt of Companies/Entps 6% Public Administration 3% Health Care & Soc Asst 2% Wholesale Trade (-4%) 2017 2007 Source: Moody’s Economy.com KEY: (applies to both graph #2 & #3) Moody’s Economy.com is the world-renowned source in economic data and forecasting. Their methodological approach to analysis of the U.S. economy models national and regional variables, allowing a richer set of data for long-term projections, such as the forecasts included in this report.
Projections Indicate Higher Paying Jobs Will Grow Faster NEO workforce expected to Economy.com predictions show strong growth trends in higher paying occupations. In our last report, we found that over the last 15 years, jobs with above average pay had grown 50% faster than jobs with below average pay. Economy.com’s become more projections for the next ten years show jobs with above average pay in total growing 7.5%, while below average pay jobs in the aggregate show no growth skilled. over this period. Thus, the historical trend is expected to be even more pronounced in the future. Higher paying occupations account for all the expected growth in employment, indicating that education will become even more valuable in the future. Northeast Ohio Projected Occupational Employment Change: 2007–2017 $100,000 Mgmt $80,000 Legal Hlth Care Cmptr Pract & Tech Average Annual Wage & Math Sciences Arch $60,000 Install & & Eng Bus Repair Construct & Finc Edu,Trng Art, Dsgn Office & Admin Production & Lib & Ent $40,000 Com & Soc Serv Sales Hlth Care Bldg/Grnds Spprt $20,000 Clng/Mnt Food Prep Trans & & Serving Mtrl Mvg Pers Care Farm, Fish Protect & Serv & Forest Serv $0 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Percent Change Source: Moody’s Economy.com KEY: The size of the bubbles in the chart correlates to the size of employment within the occupational group. The colors are only for ease of readability. The vertical scale shows the average annual wage for the occupation, depicting the Northeast Ohio average annual wage for 2006 (most current data available) of $37,800 with a gold bar. The horizontal scale shows anticipated estimated employment change over the next ten years.
2007 has the highest average annual employment in the last six years. Fourth Quarter Quarterly Unemployment Rate Unemployment 7.5% Rate Shows 7.0% Modest 6.5% Improvement 6.0% 5.5% The regional unemployment rate has been 5.0% following the pattern of both the U.S. and Ohio. The trends for all three have been 4.5% similar, although the NEO rate more closely 4.0% follows that of Ohio than the U.S. The Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 slowing economy over the last year has 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 led to a leveling of the improvement trend at all levels. NEO 16 Ohio U.S. Source: Ohio Labor Market Information (LAUS Data) Total Employment Is the Highest in the Last Six Years This chart shows the total jobs in Northeast Ohio Total Employment Northeast Ohio without seasonal adjustment. Looking at the history for each quarter makes it easier to see 2.08 year-to-year comparisons. The overall 2.06 trend also illustrates the seasonal pattern in employment. Total jobs 2.04 usually are highest in Q3 and 2.02 (Millions) lowest in Q1. 2.00 For all of 2007, the employment 1.98 levels for each quarter have been 1.96 above or generally equal to the same 1.94 quarters in 2006. The full year of 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 outpaced 2006 as the highest annual employment in the last six years. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 The seasonal decrease in total employment from Q3 to Q4 2007 was Source: Ohio Labor Market Information (LAUS Data) the smallest in recent years, a good sign for the resilience of the Northeast Ohio economy.
Modest Growth Expected Northeast Ohio: Real GRP Billions (2006 Dollars) to Continue in 2008 $180 1.0% 0.3% 0.7% Northeast Ohio is seeing its sixth consecutive year of 2.6% 1.1% $170 1.8% growth and has grown in 14 of the last 15 years. The 1.2% 0.3%(-1.9)% 1.2% 2.6% $160 anticipated real GRP for 2008 has been added to the 4.8% chart, and at the time of this printing, we expect modest 3.0% $150 3.8% growth to continue. 5.1% $140 0.3% The 2007 number was adjusted down as was 2006. $130 This data comes from Moody’s Economy.com, which $120 continues to revise its estimates. Even now, 2007 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 remains an estimated number. It comes as no surprise Real GRP Average Annual Growth = 1.9% 2007 was adjusted down, as we know the economy weakened at the end of the year. The gap between the Source: Moody’s Economy.com Average Annual Growth trend line and the 2007 bar is representative of softness in both the national and local economies. About Team NEO Ashtabula Lake Team NEO markets Northeast Ohio to attract business investment in targeted industry clusters. The organization is a joint venture of the largest metro chambers, Cleveland Geauga representing 16 counties and their 4 million people. Team NEO serves as a central Cuyahoga resource, informing and serving those considering investment in Northeast Ohio Trumbull Lorain and is a co-founder of the Cleveland Plus™ Marketing Alliance, a coalition to drive strategic, long-term marketing for Northeast Ohio. For more information, Summit Portage Youngstown visit www.teamneo.org. Medina Akron Mahoning Ashland Data Sources: Team Northeast Ohio uses a number of data sources for the Regional Economic Review. Wayne Columbiana Canton One of the primary sources is the Moody’s Economy.com (www.economy.com) regional modeling system. Richland Stark This firm is the leading independent provider of economic, financial and industry research and data that specializes in national and metropolitan economic growth forecasts. Moody’s Economy.com county level output, employment and payroll historical data are estimated from several publicly available sources Carroll and are summarized into the Team NEO regional footprint. It is important to understand data provided by Cleveland Plus 16-County Region Economy.com are estimates of economic activity. Team NEO also uses data from federal and state sources as part of the report. As with Economy.com, the information for the Team NEO footprint is derived from data reported at either the county or metropolitan level. We rely heavily on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) and Ohio’s Labor Market Information (www.lmi.state.oh.us) for information on wages, unemployment and both general and industry-specific employment. In addition, Team NEO uses data from the Census (www.census.gov) to track housing-related activity including the number of single and multifamily permits, as well as their values. 737 Bolivar Road, Suite 2000, Cleveland, Ohio 44115 This report made possible through the generous support of 888.NEO.1411 • www.teamneo.org • www.clevelandplusbusiness.com Charter One Foundation.
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