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Business-Finance

Published on April 9, 2008

Author: Me_I

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Regional Economic Forecast:  Regional Economic Forecast Lisa M. Grobar, Director Economic Forecast Project Joseph P. Magaddino Chairman, Department of Economics California State University, Long Beach OER@CSULB.EDU An Overview of the National Economy:  An Overview of the National Economy Slide3:  The Booming Economy 1997 1998 1999 2000 Real GDP 4.4 4.4 4.2 5.1 Inflation 2.3 1.6 2.2 3.4 Unemployment 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.1 Treasury Bond, 30 Yr. 5.1 4.8 5.9 6.2 Contraction or Recession?:  Contraction or Recession? Housing and auto sectors in contraction Manufacturing sector in recession Stock Market Correction Consumer Sentiment Plunges GDP Growth Rates and Federal Funds Rate:  GDP Growth Rates and Federal Funds Rate Slide6:  National Outlook 2000 2001-2005 GDP Growth 5.1% 2.4-3.5% Inflation 3.4% 2.5-2.8% Unemployment 4.1% 4.7-4.9% Treasury Bond, 30 yr. 6.2% 6.1-5.7% Contributions to GDP 1997-2000:  Contributions to GDP 1997-2000 Exports and Imports 1990-2000:  Exports and Imports 1990-2000 (in billion $) Government Expenditures Rates of Growth:  Government Expenditures Rates of Growth The Spending Binge Slows! Consumer Expenditures Growth Rates :  The Spending Binge Slows! Consumer Expenditures Growth Rates Gross Private Investment & Investment in Equipment and Software: Rates of Growth, 1994-99:  Gross Private Investment & Investment in Equipment and Software: Rates of Growth, 1994-99 Productivity During 3 Expansions:  Productivity During 3 Expansions Output Per Hour & GDP Growth Rates [Potential Growth at 3.5-4%]:  Output Per Hour & GDP Growth Rates [Potential Growth at 3.5-4%] Regional Economic Forecast 1999-2004 :  Regional Economic Forecast 1999-2004 Regional Total Nonfarm Employment Growth [quarterly growth rates]:  Regional Total Nonfarm Employment Growth [quarterly growth rates] County Employment Growth Rates 1999 & 2000 YTD:  County Employment Growth Rates 1999 & 2000 YTD 2000: What has been different? :  2000: What has been different? We are feeling the effects of higher interest rates, especially in outlying counties construction slower, but still healthy growth durable goods, FIRE, also impacted LA’s economy improving relative to 99 this, in spite of continuing losses in aerospace Regional Total Nonfarm Employment Growth:  Regional Total Nonfarm Employment Growth percent Regional Construction Employment Growth:  Regional Construction Employment Growth percent Regional Durable Manufacturing Employment Growth:  Regional Durable Manufacturing Employment Growth percent Declines in Durable Manufacturing:  Declines in Durable Manufacturing Much of the region’s decline due to Los Angeles County Last year, durable goods employment is down 1.4%. Of the 4,900 jobs lost, 6,900 were in the aircraft sector. Aerospace continues to be a drag on the region’s economy Regional Nondurable Manufacturing Employment Growth:  Regional Nondurable Manufacturing Employment Growth percent Regional TCU Employment Growth:  Regional TCU Employment Growth percent Regional FIRE Employment Growth:  Regional FIRE Employment Growth percent Regional Trade Employment Growth:  Regional Trade Employment Growth percent Regional Service Employment Growth:  Regional Service Employment Growth percent Regional Government Employment Growth:  Regional Government Employment Growth percent A Bull Market for Teachers!:  A Bull Market for Teachers! In 1999 region added 36,000 in state & local government 24,000 of these jobs were in local education Total Nonfarm Employment Growth Region and the Nation :  Total Nonfarm Employment Growth Region and the Nation Summary: Regional Economic Forecast:  Summary: Regional Economic Forecast After strong growth in 2000, the pace of job creation will slow a bit in 2001-02 Region will not slow as much as the nation Region will continue to outperform US through 2005 Economic Forecast: Los Angeles County 2000-2005:  Economic Forecast: Los Angeles County 2000-2005 Los Angeles County Total Nonfarm Employment :  Los Angeles County Total Nonfarm Employment Number of Jobs Added in 2000:  Number of Jobs Added in 2000 LA Durable Manufacturing Employment Growth:  LA Durable Manufacturing Employment Growth percent LA Retail Trade Employment Growth:  LA Retail Trade Employment Growth percent LA Services Employment Growth:  LA Services Employment Growth percent LA Government Employment Growth:  LA Government Employment Growth percent LA’s large sectors doing well:  LA’s large sectors doing well LA Nonfarm Employment Forecast:  LA Nonfarm Employment Forecast percent Population Growth: LA County, State & Nation: 1980-1999:  Population Growth: LA County, State & Nation: 1980-1999 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau; California Department of Finance; California Association of REALTORS® Sources of Population Growth Los Angeles County:  Sources of Population Growth Los Angeles County SOURCE: CA Dept. of Finance NET IMMIGRATION VS. DOMESTIC MIGRATION Los Angeles County:  NET IMMIGRATION VS. DOMESTIC MIGRATION Los Angeles County Domestic net migration still negative: -39,337 Foreign immigration remains strong SOURCE: CA Dept. of Finance Housing Prices : Los Angeles County:  Housing Prices : Los Angeles County Slide44:  Median Housing Prices Los Angeles County Slide45:  Appreciation Rates Los Angeles County Factors Influencing Housing Appreciation :  Factors Influencing Housing Appreciation Fundamentals job growth personal income growth interest rates population growth: net migration Intra-regional substitution effects Expectations MORTGAGE RATES:  MORTGAGE RATES Fed has raised short term rates by 175 basis points five times since June 1999 Fed cut short term rate by 100 basis points in Jan 2001 SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. Housing Affordability Index Los Angeles County:  Housing Affordability Index Los Angeles County Source: California Association of Realtors Housing Affordability Index Orange County:  Housing Affordability Index Orange County Source: California Association of Realtors Unsold Housing Inventory Index Los Angeles County:  Unsold Housing Inventory Index Los Angeles County Source: California Association of Realtors Housing Appreciation Forecast Los Angeles County:  Housing Appreciation Forecast Los Angeles County Housing Prices Los Angeles County :  Housing Prices Los Angeles County Recovery in housing coincided with regional growth accelerating faster than the nation Current prices meet or exceed previous highs; affordability not a problem….. Yet! Higher interest rates have dampened housing market a bit “Fundamentals” for future appreciation remain strong

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