Lin Erda 2

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Published on October 4, 2007

Author: Junyo

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UK-China joint project to assess the potential impact of climate change on Chinese agriculture: progress and integrated approaches :  UK-China joint project to assess the potential impact of climate change on Chinese agriculture: progress and integrated approaches Lin Erda, Li Yu’e, & Guo Liping 林而达、李玉娥、郭李萍 Agrometeorology Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Slide2:  Global mean annual temperature change relative to preindustrial 2000 1950 2050 2100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Temperature anomaly ( o C) 1900 Risks of large scale discontinuities Some increase in extreme climate events Small positive or negative net monetary impacts (most people adversely affected) Net negative for some regions Risks to some systems Net negative monetary impacts Net negative for many regions Risks to many systems Some increase in extreme climate events Small positive or negative net monetary impacts (most people adversely affected) Net negative for some regions Risks to some systems OBSERVED OBSERVED IMPACTS FOR HIGH WARMING SCENARIO IMPACTS FOR LOW WARMING SCENARIO IPCC High IPCC Low Slide3:  China’s Temperature Change Slide4:  China’s Rice Production and Yield Yield (t/ha) Observed impacts of changes in regional climate warming :  Observed impacts of changes in regional climate warming are related to increasing yield trends in Northeast China, lengthening growing seasons in northern China, improved cotton quality in Xingjiang, and expansion and advanced phonologies of agricultural pests. rice, wheat, and corn production would meet adverse impacts due to shorter growth period caused by continuous warming climate, but cotton different. Slide6:  China rice production Slide7:  China wheat production Slide8:  Rainfed winter wheat yield change under GFDL Slide9:  China maize production Slide10:  Rainfed spring maize yield change under MPI Slide11:  -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Wheat Irrigated Wheat Spring Wheat Irri S Wheat Single Rice Early Rice Late Rice Spring Corn Irri. S Corn Summer Corn Irri S Corn The Possible Impacts on Main Crops in China 2030 Increase decrease An Improved Study in China:  An Improved Study in China Climate Scenarios: from HadCM2 and ECHAM Daily Data: by Chinese Weather Generator Crop Model: CERES-rice3.5 Results: 1)The will be a reduction trend of rice yield in main rice areas of China both in 2030 and 2056; 2)CO2 abatement by 0.5% will not change the trends; 3) In some high altitude regions, where is suitable for rice growth in the future, like in the Southwestern China, rice will show a trend of increasing in yield. Results:  Results If CO2 effect was not taken into account, the yield in most places will decrease, especially in north China. If CO2 effect was taken into account, the yield in most places will increase, especially in southwest China. Irrigation will be the most effective way to compensate the cost of climate change, the adjustment of planting location will be beneficial under the climate change. Concerning Issues:  Concerning Issues During the 1990s, the rice production and productivity in Asia has grown at a much slower rate than population The current yield gap ranges from 10 to 60% between attainable and economically exploitable yields depending on the ecosystems and countries The decline in rice yield is due to shortening of growth period, decrease in photosynthesis ability, and increase in respiration demanding more water availability Asian rice monoculture may be reaching productivity limits due to adverse impacts on soils A Current Study for China’s Agriculture Impact Assessment: Materials and Method:  A Current Study for China’s Agriculture Impact Assessment: Materials and Method The Purpose of Research:  The Purpose of Research To provide climate change scenarios for China, based on selected IPCC SRES emission scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. To provide socioeconomic scenarios for China relevant to agriculture, for the 2020s and 2050s. To provide an overview of the overall effects of climate change on agriculture in China, including economic costs of damages and /or adaptation. Slide17:  Tilled land, grain output and demand during 2000-2080(High) Slide18:  How is Land Modeling? (II)——Data Sources and Pretreatment(continued) Slide19:  Modeling results——Land use Change Scenario(2010) Geographical characteristics of soil carbon in China:  Geographical characteristics of soil carbon in China It increased from south to north driven by temperature around the eastern China, and it decreased from east to west driven by moisture around the north China. The additional release of CO2 from soil organic matter over the next 60 years will be 61*109 t C globally (if world temperatures rise by 0.03oC/y---IPCC estimated range) RothC model will be use for future soil simulation Climate Change Scenarios for China:  Seven different climate scenarios (baseline, 2025, 2050 and 2080 under two emission scenarios (A2 and B2 SRES) The resolution of climate scenarios for China is 50×50km with 19 levels in the atmosphere Simulation period: 1961-1990, 2071-2100. For the period of 2011-2040, 2041-2071, can be get from pattern scaling Climate Change Scenarios for China Slide22:  Global Warming by different Scenarios Materials:  Materials Grid polygon Land use map FAO Soil map China boundary Crop variety Planting details Regional Crop Model:  Model Shell (Reading polygon input files, writing output files, Running model repeatedly based on the Polygon definition.) Regional Crop Model CERES Soil polygon file Crop variety polygon file Socioeconomic polygon file PRECIS Biomass output Water output Growth output Input files (tabular or excell) Output files Isbnat35.inp Flowchart:  Flowchart Slide26:  Yield Change Map all over China Slide28:  Possible Adaptation Adjust cropping calendar and crop rotation develop and promote use of high-yielding varieties Promote irrigation and water-saving technologies shift from conventional crops to intensive greenhouse agriculture; Adopt heat-resistant crops, water-efficient cultivars with resistance to pests and diseases Highlights of the projects so far :  Highlights of the projects so far The more exact mapping results show the larger difference of crop yield distribution with the previous results; even involving adaptation climate change still will result in a reduction of between 5 and 10% in production of main crops in China in the next 30 years .A further adverse impacts will happen, large adaptation costs will need, but will not seriously influence food security The Future Work:  The Future Work HadAM3H and PRECIS of Hadley Centre will be used for several scenarios simulation National socio-economic, land-use change scheme and Technology scenarios will be used for rice simulation The framework of an integrated model has been developed which consists of drivers (climate and non-climate related) and models (crop, land use, water resource, soil, pest and disease and biodiversity). ARC/GIS is the linkage between the models and the drivers. Slide31:  Driving forces Output Slide32:  Data flow within the integrated model RAW Soil Management Crop parameters population Urbanisation Adaptation Policy etc DATABASE Pre-processing -ARC/GIS Soil C, N, pH etc Climate T R Sea-level Extreme ENSO Management Irrigation Tillage fertilisation Land Agri. area MODELS Crop choice ARC/GIS Display Cylinders=disk storage Boxes=software Biodiversity DNDC Pest & Disease Water resources Crop models Production

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