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Other Instruments of Trade Policy:  Local Content Requirements A local content requirement is a regulation that requires that some specified fraction of a final good be produced domestically. This fraction can be specified in physical units or in value terms. Other Instruments of Trade Policy Slide2:  Other Trade Policy Instruments Export credit subsidies A form of a subsidized loan to the buyer of exports. They have the same effect as regular export subsidies. National procurement Purchases by the government (or public firms) can be directed towards domestic goods, even if they are more expensive than imports. Red-tape barriers Sometimes governments place substantial barriers based on health, safety and customs procedures. Fall under Tariff Antidumping Duties – Against foreign dumping Countervailing Duties – Against foreign export subsidy Safeguard measures – similar to Antidumping Other Instruments of Trade Policy Determination of Trade Policy in the real world:  Determination of Trade Policy in the real world Political Economical Strategic Game Playing between Countries Negotiations under the WTO umbrella Slide4:  In practice, trade policy is dominated by income distribution considerations. Electoral Competition Political scientists argue that policies are determined by competition among political parties that try to attract as many votes as possible. Income Distribution and Trade Policy Slide5:  Assumptions of the model: There are two competing political parties. The objective of each party is to get elected. Each party has to decide on the level of the tariff imposed (this is the only policy available). Voters differ in the tariff they prefer. What policies will the two parties promise to follow? Both parties will offer the same policy consisting of the tariff that the median voter (the voter who is exactly halfway up the lineup) prefers. Income Distribution and Trade Policy Slide6:  Income Distribution and Trade Policy Figure 9-4: Political Competition Slide7:  Trade Policy and Collective Action Trade policies that impose total large losses that are spread among many individual firms or consumers may not face opposition. Industries that are well organized (or have a small number of firms) get protection. Modeling the Political Process Interest groups “buy” policies by offering contributions contingent on the policies followed by the government. Income Distribution and Trade Policy Slide8:  Who Gets Protected? Following sectors seem to get protected in advanced countries: Agriculture Farmers are well organized and the structure of the U.S. government enhances their political power. Clothing Both textiles and apparel have enjoyed substantial protection. This sector employs less skilled workers and it is unionized as well. Steel On March 5, 2002, the US President announced the imposition of temporary tariffs, ranging from 8 percent to 30 percent on approximately $5 billion of steel imports, to last 3 years Income Distribution and Trade Policy Economic Benefits from Free Trade:  Economic Benefits from Free Trade whole discussion about small and large countries optimum tariff Feasibility of adapting Free Trade in the Global World Strategic Behavior– Game Theory International Negotiations and Trade Policy:  Protection Protection Table 9-3: The Problem of Trade Warfare International Negotiations and Trade Policy Please copy this down:  Please copy this down Nash Equilibrium If there is a set of strategies with the property that no player can benefit by changing her strategy while the other players keep their strategies unchanged, then that set of strategies and the corresponding payoffs constitute the Nash Equilibrium. Expected Benefit ? For the US Expected Benefit ? For Japan What strategy would they choose? International Negotiations and Trade Policy:  In Table 9-3, each country has a dominant strategy: Protection. Even though each country acting individually would be better off with protection, they would both be better off if both chose free trade. In game theory, this situation is known as a Prisoner’s dilemma. Japan and the U.S. can establish a binding agreement to maintain free trade. International Negotiations and Trade Policy International Negotiations and Trade Policy:  How was the removal of tariffs politically possible? The postwar liberalization of trade was achieved through international negotiation. Governments agreed to engage in mutual tariff reduction. The Advantages of Negotiation It is easier to lower tariffs as part of a mutual agreement than to do so as a unilateral policy because: It helps mobilize exporters to support freer trade. It can help governments avoid getting caught in destructive trade wars. International Negotiations and Trade Policy International Negotiations and Trade Policy:  International Trade Agreements: A Brief History Internationally coordinated tariff reduction as a trade policy dates back to the 1930s (the Smoot-Hawley Act). The multilateral tariff reductions since World War II have taken place under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), established in 1947 and located in Geneva. The GATT-WTO system is a legal organization that embodies a set of rules of conduct for international trade policy. International Negotiations and Trade Policy International Negotiations and Trade Policy:  The GATT-WTO system prohibits the imposition of: Export Subsidies (except for agricultural products) Countervailing duties Import quotas (except when imports threaten “market disruption”) Tariffs (any new tariff or increase in a tariff must be offset by reductions in other tariffs to compensate the affected exporting countries) – AD and safeguard measures Trade round A large group of countries get together to negotiate a set of tariff reductions and other measures to liberalize trade. International Negotiations and Trade Policy Trade Round:  Eight GATT trade rounds have occurred since 1947: The first five of these took the form of “parallel” bilateral negotiations (e.g., Germany with France and Italy). The sixth multilateral trade agreement, known as the Kennedy Round, was completed in 1967: This agreement involved an across-the-board 50% reduction in tariffs by the major industrial countries, except for specified industries whose tariffs were left unchanged. Overall, the Kennedy Round reduced average tariffs by about 35%. Trade Round International Negotiations and Trade Policy:  The so-called Tokyo round of trade negotiations (completed in 1979) resulted in: Reduced tariffs New codes for controlling the proliferation of nontariff barriers, such as VER’s. An eighth round of negotiations, the so-called Uruguay Round, was competed in 1994. International Negotiations and Trade Policy International Negotiations and Trade Policy:  The Uruguay Round Its most important results are: Trade liberalization Administrative reforms Trade Liberalization The average tariff imposed by advanced countries decreased by almost 40%. More important is the move to liberalize trade in two important sectors: agricultural and clothing. From the GATT to the WTO Much of the publicity surrounding the Uruguay Round focused on its creation of the WTO. International Negotiations and Trade Policy Slide19:  Negotiations: Multilateral Negotiations: Bilateral International Negotiations and Trade Policy:  Preferential Trading Agreements Nations establish preferential trading agreements under which they lower tariffs with respect to each other but not the rest of the world. The GATT-WTO, through the principle of non-discrimination called the “most favored nation” (MFN) principle, prohibits such agreements. The formation of preferential trading agreements is allowed if they lead to free trade between the agreeing countries. International Negotiations and Trade Policy International Negotiations and Trade Policy:  Free trade can be established among several WTO members as follows: A free trade area allows free-trade among members, but each member can have its own trade policy towards non-member countries. Example: The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) creates a free trade area. A customs union allows free trade among members and requires a common external trade policy towards non-member countries. South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland established the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) in 1969 as a continuance of their custom union arrangements, which are in force since 1910. A common market is a customs union with free factor movements (especially labor) among members. Example: The European Union (EU) is a full customs union. International Negotiations and Trade Policy International Negotiations and Trade Policy:  Are preferential trading agreements good? It depends on whether it leads to trade creation or trade diversion. Trade creation Occurs when the formation of a preferential trading agreement leads to replacement of high-cost domestic production by low-cost imports from other members. Trade diversion Occurs when the formation of a preferential trading agreement leads to the replacement of low-cost imports from non members with higher-cost imports from member nations. International Negotiations and Trade Policy Summary:  Summary There are three arguments in favor of free trade: The efficiency gains from free trade The additional gains from economies of scale The political argument There are two arguments for deviating from free trade: The terms of trade argument for a tariff The domestic market failures Trade Diversion – Good or Bad:  Trade Diversion – Good or Bad Importing Country Consumer Surplus + (a + b + c + d) Producer Surplus - a Govt. Revenue - (c + e) National Welfare + (b + d) - e Trade Creation-1:  Trade Creation-1 Importing Country FTA with country a Consumer Surplus + (a + b + c) Producer Surplus - a Govt. Revenue 0 National Welfare + (b + c) Trade Creation (imports) from “0” to D2-S2 from country a Trade Creation -2:  Trade Creation -2 Importing Country Free Trade Area Signed with country c, which has comparative advantage in producing the good. Trade Create: M1-M2=all the extra imports Welfare analysis? Pc+t Pa Pc Pa+t S2 D2 AD- Trade Restriction and Trade Diversion:  AD- Trade Restriction and Trade Diversion Importing Country Level of Import Restriction: [(D1 - S1) - (D2 - S2)] Level of Import Diversion from country A to country C: [(D2 -S2) - (D3 - S3)] Summary:  Summary There are three arguments in favor of free trade: The efficiency gains from free trade The additional gains from economies of scale The political argument There are two arguments for deviating from free trade: The terms of trade argument for a tariff The domestic market failures

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