lecture 45

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Information about lecture 45

Published on October 2, 2007

Author: Heather



Other Severe Weather (Chap. 8—except we skip winter storms):  Other Severe Weather (Chap. 8—except we skip winter storms) Thunderstorms: “Straight line” damaging winds Hail: one of most costly insured hazards in US, Europe, Australia! $1.3B crop loss annually in US; plus another $1-1.5B property loss. But individual hail storms can cause $100m to 1b+ in insured losses. Lightning: consistent killer-Consistently 60-70/yr in U.S. Tornadoes: 100+ /year fatalities in U.S., significant damage (I have no $ value). Slide2:  Surprising high point of hail frequency in NE Colorado (as mentioned in our textbook), well known to farmers, who can suffer severe crop impacts. Slide3:  Hail is costly to crops, buildings, and vehicles, not usually fatalities. Slide4:  Sidney, Australia, 1999 hail storm caused A$ 1.7b in damages, most expensive event in nation’s history! This scene is of tarps covering roofs damaged by the storm. Slide5:  Lightning is common hazard of thunderstorms, kills maybe 70/yr in US but injures many more. Some damage, too, incl. fires but I found no $ data. Lightning is main natural cause of wildfires, too. High ferquencies in SE, Midwest and parts of Rockies. Slide6:  A more detailed map (of strikes –or “flashes”--from radio monitor network) shows similar pattern, highs in FL, highlights in Rocky Mountains. Lows in NW and far West. Slide7:  756 deaths over 14 years: FL naturally high due to freq and exposure--people outdoors. Same for CO (think golf and mountaineering) Slide8:  Deaths per capita, give a different risk factor and pattern: showing WY, UT and Co top three (next page), due presumably to exposure (recreationists and farmers) even of a smaller pop. Slide9:  StateDeath Rate Per Million People Rank Wyoming 2.02    1 Utah 0.70    2 Colorado 0.65    3 Florida 0.56    4 Montana 0.55    5 New Mexico 0.55    6 South Dakota 0.47    7 Idaho 0.39    8 Alabama 0.38    9 Louisiana 0.37   10 Slide10:  Main mitigation is awareness programs meant to instill lightning safety awareness. How effective? Hard to say. Slide11:  “Palm Sunday tornadoes” Apr. 11, 1965: Midwest, 250 fatalities---this outbreak of hundreds of tornadoes and dozens of very intense tornadoes led to more attention to forecast and warning system in U.S. Atmosphere was so primed to spin up tornadoes that they even came in pairs. This and a similar outbreak in 1974 was studied by T. Fujita, atmospheric physicist at U. Chicago, led to “Fujita Scale.” See next slide. Tornado hazard Slide12:  The 1974 “Super Outbreak” of tornadoes (148 in one day; 315 deaths, over 5,000 injured) was studies by Fujita to develop more understanding of intensity and damage relationships. Slide13:  Tornadoes remain a major killer and cause of damage in U.S., actually US has more tornadoes than anywhere on earth, mostly in southern Great Plains --”tornado alley”. Slide14:  US tornado fatalities rose with population until warning and awareness efforts caused decline after about 1950. Last few big fatal outbreaks include the 1953 Massachusetts tornado; 1965 Palm Sunday super-outbreak, and 1974 super-outbreak. Slide16:  Tiered watch/warning system in place in US. Slide17:  1: watch issued to large area 3 2 Actual tornado observed or detected on radar Warning issues by sirens, radio, telephone, door-to-door police. Mitigation:  Mitigation Building codes: wind/tornado, hail Shelters: for tornadoes Forecast and Warning system: tiered system: watch and warning. Key is getting warning out to people in just a few minutes (unlike hurricane warnings), often at night. Search & rescue quickly after tornadoes. Recovery Awareness programs Chap. 10: Hydrological Hazards: Floods:  Chap. 10: Hydrological Hazards: Floods Flooding in a trailer park along Spring Creek in Fort Collins, 1997. Over 10 inches of rain in a day caused flows of almost 8,000 cfs on a creek where the 500 year return period flow was assumed to be about 3,000 cfs! Flood Hazard:  Flood Hazard Most common, widespread natural hazard Extensive floodplains, attractive to settlement (ag and urban) Wrapped up in other hazards, like hurricanes and thunderstorms which deliver heavy rain. Some 20K fatalities/yr, especially in LDCs MDCs experience large $ loss, increasing. Slide21:  The majority of federal disaster declarations are caused by floods, and repeat declarations occur in flood-prone areas like Calif., along the Mississippi, and inland Mid-Atlantic areas Causes:  Causes Excessive rainfall Snow melt Both! Human transformations: deforestation, urban surfaces; dam/levee failure. Slide23:  The floodplain: the area along a stream or river which is naturally, often seasonally or annually, inundated during high flows. Slide24:  Narrow floodplain in Appalachian Mountains (also asymmetric) Slide25:  Broad floodplain in Midwest (Mississippi River) Slide26:  Note concentration of floodplain land in south, FL, and Calif. Central Valley. Slide27:  Flood disasters and impacts increasing globally. Slide29:  Re-analyzed versions of this NOAA flood damage data set, similar to graph in the textbook. Here is deflated dollar losses. Slide30:  Here is per capita dollar losses, showing slow rise per capita Slide31:  Here is dollar losses per unit of wealth invested in property in US, showing slight decline over time, so lower proportion of total wealth is being affected. This is a controversial measure, but may suggest slightly reduced vulnerability Slide32:  Where: Iowa is high, as is LA, CA and MO and ND (recall the floodplain map!) Measuring Floods:  Measuring Floods Discharge: cubic feet or cubic meters per second (m3/sec) or volume of discharge in total acre feet or cubic meters (m3) Height, height above “flood stage” in feet or meters (threshold for each reach of each river) Probability or “Exceedance probability” the 20, 50 or 100 year flood Or .05, .02 or .01 flood

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