Published on October 22, 2012
Leading the Bandwagon I hate to brag, and I hate to say I told you so, but I just can’t help it.
Leading the Bandwagon What am I talking about?
Leading the Bandwagon AAPL: Apple Inc.
Leading the Bandwagon You know, the makers of the iPod and the iPad and iPhone. Yeah those guys.
Leading the Bandwagon Back on September 24th the stock was trading around 690 and I said to short it.
Leading the Bandwagon Well today, it’s at 638, down 52 points or around 7.5%.
Leading the Bandwagon Anyway, that’s not important at all. I didn’t short the stock myself and I didn’t sell any shares. It was academic and meaningless…
Leading the Bandwagon But it was for a point.
Leading the Bandwagon My point was that you should run away from the bandwagon as fast as possible. Every time.
Leading the Bandwagon You see, it was on that morning that I read a report with some statisticians saying the AAPL was going to increase 50% in stock price…
Leading the Bandwagon And become the first trillion dollar company in world history.
Leading the Bandwagon And I said it was time to sell to get away from the nearly always wrong bandwagon.
Leading the Bandwagon Anyway, conventional wisdom is almost always wrong. The band wagon is consistently a bad thing. Except for in one case.
Leading the Bandwagon When you’re leading the bandwagon.
Leading the Bandwagon Then it’s all sunshine and puppy dogs.
Leading the Bandwagon When you lead the bandwagon, you make the moves, you set the trends, and you command the big bucks.
Leading the Bandwagon They say it’s lonely at the top, but they lie. It’s lonely everywhere but the top, and God forbid you’re down, you’ll find no shortage of people looking to kick you.
Leading the Bandwagon Anyway, that’s not the point.
Leading the Bandwagon The point is this…
Leading the Bandwagon I had a couple of flashbacks this morning; both band wagon related.
Leading the Bandwagon The first was to my junior high and high school days when Michael Jordan was winning 6 championships in 8 years.
Leading the Bandwagon At the time, everyone I knew was a Bulls fan, and I hated it and them (Knicks fan here).
Leading the Bandwagon That’s right. Everyone and their mother were Bulls fans. But guess how many still are?
Leading the Bandwagon NONE!
Leading the Bandwagon That’s bandwagon mentality.
Leading the Bandwagon OK. Last flashback…
Leading the Bandwagon It’s 2003. The Yankees are in the Series with the then Florida Marlins. If you remember, the Marlins won the World Series in ‘97, then went on to dismantle the team.
Leading the Bandwagon Anyway, they’re playing the Yanks and all my college football friends from Florida suddenly transform into Marlins fans…. Overnight.
Leading the Bandwagon And these are college athletes and sports fans, and you know what? Not one of them could name one single player on the Marlins.
Leading the Bandwagon But they sure were all rooting pretty hard for them.
Leading the Bandwagon And that’s the bandwagon mentality.
Leading the Bandwagon When you’re on top and leading the bandwagon, life is good.
Leading the Bandwagon But don’t ever find yourself following a bandwagon. It’ll lead you straight to the bottom.
Leading the BandwagonOr down 7.5% in just two weeks.
Leading the Bandwagon Just some food for thought.
Until Next Time… Until next time, Kevin Oefelein
Leading the Bandwagon P.S. I had tickets to Game 7 of that 2003 World Series at Yankee Stadium…
Leading the Bandwagon A game that was never played (Marlins won in 6).
Leading the Bandwagon Anyway, I had a chance to have Game 6 tickets too, but chose Game 7 instead. I missed out. Don’t you miss out.
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