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LCC copper gold report 20140303

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Information about LCC copper gold report 20140303
Finance

Published on March 3, 2014

Author: jfrancoisbertincourt

Source: slideshare.net

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WEEKLY WWW.LCC.ASIA WORLD LARGEST GOLD ETF ADDS 10t IN FEB Global Economic Fundamentals Last (A$/oz) (US$/oz) (US$/oz) (US$/oz) (US$/oz) (US$/t) (US$/barrel) (US$/m btu) (US$/lb) 1,486 1,328 21.2 1,441 739 116 101 4.74 35 Currencies & Indices AUD/USD RMB/USD CAD/USD ZAR/USD ASX Ordinary Gold TSX Global Gold ASX 300 Metals & Mining TSX Global Mining Volume A$/oz US$/oz 400 300 Week r ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ Last 0.894 0.163 0.902 0.093 2,473 198 3,411 77 4-Wk r 0.6% 0.3% (2.6%) 0.9% (0.1%) (5.3%) 0.5% (5.4%) (0.8%) ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ 5% 7% 11% 5% 5% (6%) 4% (4%) (1%) Week r ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ — ▼ ▼ 4-Wk r (0.3%) (0.9%) 0.5% 1.9% (0.6%) 0.0% (0.7%) (3.1%) ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ 1,500 Gold Price 1,400 200 YTD r ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ 2% (1%) 0% 4% 13% 9% 5% 7% Base Metals 11% 10% 9% 5% 3% (13%) 3% 13% 3% (A$/lb) (US$/lb) (RMB/t) Cobalt Molybdenum Nickel Lead Zinc Tin YTD r ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ (US$/lb) (US$/lb) (US$/lb) (US$/lb) (US$/lb) (US$/lb) FTSE 100 Index Euro STOXX 50 Index Dec Jan 3.70 0 3000 1400 Dec Jan Feb World Gold Demand and Supply Nov 2000 1200 1500 1000 1000 800 600 Total Demand (tonnes) Total Supply (tonnes) Gold Price (US$/oz, RHS) Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 YTD r ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ 1% (2%) 0% 1% (3%) (9%) 3% 1% 3.70 3.30 0 3.10 Nov Dec Jan Feb Dec Jan 50 3.50 40 30 20 3.30 10 3.20 0 3.60 54000 300 COMEX Copper Price and Stocks 3.50 Stocks ('000 t) Price (US$/lb) 3.40 3.10 Nov Feb SHFE Copper Price and Volume 75 3.60 3.10 0 Thousands Nov 4% 4% 4% 1% 4% (0%) 5% 4% 3.20 25 1500 ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ 3.30 Volume ('000 lot) Price (US$/lb) 50 2000 4-Wk r (0.6%) 1.4% 1.2% (0.4%) (2.7%) (0.2%) 0.6% 0.4% 3.50 Feb COMEX Copper Price and Volume 75 2500 (4%) (4%) (6%) 6% 5% 4% (4%) 1% 4% 3.40 100 S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) Jan YTD r ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ 200 3.10 Dec Week r ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ (2%) 0% (4%) 1% (1%) 6% (1%) 4% 7% 400 3.30 Nov ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ LME Copper Price and Stocks 3.50 Feb 4-Wk r (1.3%) (1.6%) (2.5%) (0.9%) (1.1%) 1.0% (0.8%) 2.4% 1.8% Stocks (kt) Price (A$/lb) Price (US$/lb) 600 100 1,100 Nov 5,405 16,322 1,859 2,056 22,837 14,841 6,810 3,149 S&P 500 Index Shang Hai Index Hang Seng Index Nikkei 225 Volume (kt) Price (A$/lb) Price (US$/lb) 200 Week r ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ Last ASX 200 Dow Jones LME Copper Price and Volume 300 1,200 0 3.60 3.22 49,250 14.16 10.21 6.60 0.96 0.96 10.68 Global Markets (0%) (1%) 0% 2% (1%) (3%) (1%) (2%) 1,300 100 Last Copper Copper Copper Thousands Gold Gold Silver Platinum Palladium Iron Ore Crude Oil Gas H.Hub Uranium Thousands Precious Metals Thousands Australian Copper Gold Report 3rd March 2014 Dec Jan Feb 54000 SHFE Copper Price and Stocks 53000 200 52000 51000 500 250 150 51000 50000 100 49000 50 48000 0 Volume ('000 lot) Price (RMB/t) 50 53000 52000 25 0 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb 50000 Stocks ('0 00 t) Price (RMB/t) 49000 48000 Nov Dec Jan Feb China Copper Imports 600 4.00 Tonnes (kt) Copper Price 500 3.80 400 3.60 300 3.40 200 3.20 100 0 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 3.00 Source: Capital IQ, COMEX, LME, SHFE, Thomson Reuters, WGC, LCC IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made . Page 1 / 4

WEEKLY Australian Copper Gold Report 3rd March 2014 WWW.LCC.ASIA Markets & Majors Australian Financial Review - Users of refined copper in China, the world’s top consumer of the metal, increased purchases of spot metal after the Lunar New Year holidays in previous years. But this year, users were putting their spot purchases on hold as they expect copper prices to fall further. A weaker property market and falling currency have fuelled concern about China’s slowing economic growth, signaling a slower demand for copper. LCC notes that copper imports were exceptionally strong in January in preparation for the Chinese New Year. Stocks in bonded warehouses in Shanghai are estimated by traders at between 560,000 and 660,000 tonnes currently. The Shanghai Future Exchange inventories were 198,000 t as at the end of February. Thomson Reuters - The European copper premium is supported by a deficit market and a shortage of stored material, but could slip in coming weeks as supply disruption from top exporter Chile eases. Stable demand was offset by a drop in copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses to 14-month lows, squeezing shortterm availability for consumers. Strong mine production last year led to a build-up of concentrate stockpiles, creating a logjam of raw material at smelters, which meant output was unable to keep up with consumer demand. Highlighting the lack of material, overall smelter output in top copper producer Chile dropped by a quarter in December after a strike at Codelco's Chuquicamata smelter, while port strikes also put a lid on copper exports. But with the easing of disruption in Chile, more material could reach Europe in coming weeks and alleviate supply tightness. Metal Bulletin – Trafigura has agreed to buy a 30% stake in Jinchuan’s 400,000 tpa Fangcheng copper smelter. The deal includes a multi-year contract for supply of concentrate and offtake of cathode, both corresponding to Trafigura's 30% stake. That implies 120,000 tpa of cathode to be marketed by Trafigura from the smelter, which started up in October last year. No financial details of the investment were given. Jinchuan has previously said it has plans to expand the Fangcheng smelter to 600,000 tpa It is also planning to build a 200,000 tpa nickel pig iron plant. Fangcheng is a port city in southern China's Guangxi province and plays an important role for commodity transportation and into Guangxi and other southern provinces such as Yunnan and Guangdong. Thomson Reuters – Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold said its Indonesian unit may need to declare force majeure on copper concentrate sales if a dispute with the government over export taxes drags on for a prolonged period. Freeport and Newmont Mining Corp have refused to pay an escalating export tax introduced last month as part of package of new mining rules aimed at forcing miners to build smelters and process raw materials in Indonesia. Freeport has reduced copper production at the world's fifth-biggest copper mine in Papua, and its nearby mill was operating at half its normal capacity. It has not exported copper concentrate since mid-January. Tonnages of gold held in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world’s largest gold ETF, have increased by just over 10 tonnes of gold in February – the first monthly gain since December 2012. Last year holdings of gold-backed ETFs fell by 881 tonnes, according to data from the World Gold Council and Thomson Reuters GMFS, as gold prices tumbled 28%. The SPDR alone saw its holdings drop by more than 550 tonnes. Emerging Copper Producers Code Company Name Close Price AVI AZS BTR HAV HCH HIG IRN KGL MMC MNC RXM VRX VXR YTC AVB CDU FND Avalon Minerals Azure Minerals Blackthorn Resources Havilah Resources Hot Chili Highlands Pacific Indophil Resources KGL Resources Marengo Mining Metminco Rex Minerals Ventnor Resources Venturex Resources YTC Resources Avanco Resources Cudeco Finders Resources 0.009 0.037 0.17 0.24 0.44 0.072 0.16 0.110 0.012 0.032 0.46 0.07 0.007 0.24 0.072 1.82 0.19 Week r ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ YTD r (10% ) 3% 3% (4% ) (4% ) 1% (20% ) (4% ) (14% ) 10% 6% 6% (13% ) (4% ) 6% 5% 9% Market 52 Week Cap (A$m) Range (10% ) 23% (35% ) (4% ) 4% 18% (3% ) 5% (20% ) 3% (4% ) (37% ) (30% ) 4% 1% 1% (12% ) 11 26 28 29 153 61 193 15 14 56 87 5 11 79 98 426 102 Cash (A$m) 2.7 2.3 16.3 3.5 8.2 9.6 215.1 7.8 4.5 7.8 20.9 0.9 3.4 25.8 16.6 47.4 12.9 EV (A$m) 8 24 12 25 145 52 (23) 8 37 48 66 5 7 118 81 379 89 Source: ASX, Capital IQ, LCC. A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.90 Copper Producers Close Price Code Company Name ABY AOH DML HGO OZL PNA SFR SRQ TGS Aditya Birla Minerals 0.34 ▲ Altona Mining 0.18 ▲ Discovery Metals 0.036 ▼ Hillgrove Resources 0.090 ▼ OZ Minerals 3.75 ▼ PanAust 1.77 ▼ Sandfire Resources 5.99 ▼ Straits Resources 0.006 ▼ Tiger Resources 0.39 ▲ Week r YTD r 3% 3% (8% ) (2% ) (1% ) (11% ) (3% ) (14% ) 4% 0% 9% (32% ) 0% 19% (2% ) (7% ) (25% ) 12% Market 52 Week Cap (A$m) Range 107 96 20 106 1,138 1,078 932 7 309 Cash EV/ EV (A$m) (A$m) EBITDA 118 20 13 17 364 145 75 12 42 (11) 87 178 134 774 1,113 1,087 118 323 0.1x 6.4x NM 3.9x 4.4x 4.5x 8.6x 2.9x 5.2x Source: ASX, Capital IQ, LCC. Assumption: A$/US$ of 0.90 ASX-listed Company News Bassari Resources (ASX: BSR) has released the results of a Scoping Study for the Makabingui gold resource in Senegal. The study considers conventional open-cut mining from four highgrade pits and simple processing with gravity and CIL. Annual production is expected to be 50,000 ozpa at C1 costs of US$700/oz. Capex is estimated at $9.8 million for a 300,000 tpa plant upgrade of the existing gravity plant. The study assumed a US$1,200/oz gold price. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made . Page 2 / 4

WEEKLY Australian Copper Gold Report 3rd March 2014 WWW.LCC.ASIA Medusa Mining (ASX: MML) reported a NPAT of US$13m (-55% y/y) for the six months to 31 December 2013. MML is an unhedged gold producer and received an average gold price of US$1,304/oz from the sale of 27,334 ounces of gold for the halfyear to December 2013 (corresponding period to December 2012: 43,492 ounces at US$1,676/oz). EBITDA decreased by 45% to US$19.4 million. MML produced 26,089 ounces of gold for the half-year, compared to 32,580 ounces from the previous corresponding period, at an average recovered grade of 5.07 g/t gold (six months to December 2012: 7.82 g/t gold). Average cash costs for the half-year of US$422/oz were higher than the previous corresponding period’s costs of US$300/oz. The production guidance for FY2015 is 140,000 to 160,000oz and from FY2016 onwards is 160,000 to 200,000ozpa. A fall of A$203/oz in the average realised gold price has left Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) with a A$7.6m net profit for the six months to 31 December 2013 (A$22.3m in previous corresponding half). Production rose from 39,366oz previously to 50,419oz, reflecting the A$30m investment made in expanding the Paulsens processing plant and mine. Surplus cashflow from operating activities was A$24.6m, down from A$29m, as costs associated with the increased mining and processing rates and a lower gold price offset the increased production Recent acquisitions will see production more than triple to +350,000ozpa An interim dividend is maintained at 1¢ a share, fully-franked. Norton Gold Fields (ASX: NGF) / Zijin Mining expects 2014 gold production to be in the range of 176,000 to 184,000 ounces, with C1 costs in the range of A$870 to A$930/oz. NGF produced 172,739 oz in 2013 at C1 costs of A$960/oz. Silver Lake Resources (ASX: SLR) has placed the Murchison gold operations on care and maintenance. The maiden gold pour was announced just over a year ago on 22 Feb 2013. SLR also raised approximately A$39 million (@ $0.60) by way of institutional placement. Of the proceeds, A$12 million is to place the Murchison on care & maintenance and A$24 million is allocated for growth capital at Mount Monger. St Barbara (ASX: SBM) declared a loss of A$87m. Cash on hand at 31 December 2013 was $70 million with total debt of $320 million. A new US$75 million facility has been put in place with Red Kite Mine Finance to replace the previous gold prepayment facility. The interest rate is linked to a published reference. The initial rate is 8.5% pa. The facility is secured under the existing Senior Secured Notes security trust structure and has priority payment status. Emerging Gold Producers Code Company Name Close Price ABU ALK AZM BSR BAB CHZ CDG CVG CAS DCN FMl GCY GRY IDC IAU KGD MSR MYG OBS ORD PAN PIR PXG RED RNI ROL SIH SXG SUM WAF YTC ABM Resources Alkane Resources Azumah Resources Bassari Resources Bullabulling Gold Chesser Resources Cleveland Mining Convergent Minerals Crusader Resources Dacian Gold Focus Minerals Gascoyne Resources Gryphon Minerals Indochine Mining Intrepid Mines Kula Gold Manas Resources Mutiny Gold Orbis Gold Ord Resources Panoramic Resources Papillon Resources Phoenix Gold Red 5 Resource & Investment Robust Resources Sihayo Gold Southern Cross Goldfields Sumatra Copper & Gold West African Resources YTC Resources 0.029 0.40 0.046 0.010 0.064 0.13 0.11 0.013 0.31 0.35 0.01 0.18 0.18 0.066 0.26 0.10 0.041 0.032 0.35 0.01 0.37 1.42 0.16 0.11 0.115 0.30 0.030 0.016 0.09 0.15 0.24 Week r YTD r — — — ▼ ▲ ▼ — — ▲ — ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ — ▼ ▲ — ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ — ▼ ▼ ▼ 0% 0% 0% (9%) 7% (7%) 0% 0% 3% 0% (7%) 3% (5%) 6% 2% 0% (2%) 10% 0% 40% (11%) 10% (6%) 10% 28% 2% (3%) 0% (4%) (6%) (4%) Market Cap (A$m) 32% 18% 64% 25% 42% 19% 5% (19%) 2% 46% 17% 25% 3% 53% (17%) (5%) 28% 0% 40% 40% 48% 45% (3%) 25% 117% (14%) 0% 23% 33% 7% 4% 52 Week Cash EV Range (A$m) (A$m) 95 149 16 9 22 27 25 5 39 34 128 28 70 69 145 13 17 20 87 7 119 484 37 84 35 31 28 14 39 37 79 5.1 43.3 3.3 0.2 4.3 4.6 0.6 0.7 2.2 13.2 81.2 1.2 41.7 0.5 98.2 3.2 5.6 1.7 5.5 1.5 34.0 43.6 4.6 36.7 3.0 2.5 0.5 5.1 4.0 4.0 25.8 90 106 13 8 18 23 25 4 41 20 54 26 28 69 46 9 11 24 82 5 85 440 33 47 47 34 28 16 37 36 118 Source: ASX, Capital IQ, LCC. Assumption: A$/US$ of 0.90 Gold Producers Code Company Name AQG AGD BDR BEZ CRK DRM DRA EVN EVR IGO KCN KRM LSA MML MLX MOY MLI NCM NGF NST OGC PNA PGI PRU RMS RRL RSG SAR SBM SLR TBR TGZ TRY UML VGO ANG ABX GFI NEM Alacer Gold Austral Gold Beadell Resources Besra Gold Crocodile Gold Corp Doray Minerals Dragon Mining Evolution Mining Endeavour Mining Corp Independence Group Kingsgate Consolidated Kingsrose Mining Lachlan Star Medusa Mining Metals X Millennium Minerals Mintails Newcrest Mining Norton Gold Fields Northern Star Resources OceanaGold Corporation PanAust PanTerra Gold Perseus Mining Ramelius Resources Regis Resources Resolute Mining Saracen Mineral Holdings St Barbara Silver Lake Resources Tribune Resources Teranga Gold Corp Troy Resources Unity Mining Vantage Goldfields AngloGold Ashanti Barrick Gold Corp Goldfields Newmont Mining Corp Close Price 2.99 0.13 0.76 0.030 0.28 0.99 0.19 0.94 0.80 4.13 1.22 0.35 0.25 2.17 0.23 0.16 0.055 11.34 0.13 1.15 2.72 1.77 0.050 0.43 0.15 2.28 0.61 0.31 0.35 0.58 2.70 1.13 1.16 0.031 0.029 190.55 22.56 40.91 23.26 Week r YTD r — — ▼ ▼ — ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ 0% 0% (2% ) (32% ) 0% 5% 23% 5% 1% (4% ) (5% ) (10% ) 9% 1% (2% ) (18% ) (4% ) 2% 4% (1% ) 4% (11% ) 2% (3% ) (9% ) (11% ) (7% ) (18% ) (13% ) (15% ) (1% ) (2% ) (18% ) (21% ) (22% ) (3% ) (3% ) (5% ) (1% ) 32% 4% (4% ) (33% ) 129% 76% 46% 52% 65% 33% 31% 3% 25% 6% 32% (16% ) (2% ) 45% (4% ) 46% 71% (2% ) 22% 76% 49% (22% ) 9% 65% 35% 8% 16% 105% 47% (24% ) 12% 55% 21% 24% 1% Market 52 Week Cap (A$m) Range 868 21 601 13 112 161 17 663 331 964 200 124 37 451 372 35 15 8,686 121 605 796 1,078 39 226 53 1,139 388 229 171 254 136 358 195 22 7 7,987 26,529 3,280 12,960 Cash EV/ EV (A$m) (A$m) EBITDA 322 9 24 1 28 24 6 37 119 46 37 1 3 23 50 10 4 121 41 49 28 145 6 28 33 13 50 23 70 17 9 39 18 10 1 725 2,688 358 1,739 546 73 646 38 90 186 11 767 512 982 339 122 38 428 323 56 10 13,203 195 556 962 1,113 83 198 24 1,136 432 228 431 245 146 386 207 12 6 11,522 40,630 5,358 21,946 2.4x 7.4x 64.2x NM 0.4x NM 50.9x 4.5x NM 11.7x 4.2x NM NM 8.3x 15.3x 2.4x NM 12.5x NM 9.8x 4.0x 4.5x NM 18.6x 1.9x 4.4x 3.3x 2.8x NM NM 2.1x NM 7.2x NM 2.4x 6.5x 6.6x 5.5x 6.1x Source: ASX, Capital IQ, LCC. Assumption: A$/US$ of 0.90. December quarter figures are in regular font, earlier financial figures are in italics IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made . Page 3 / 4

WEEKLY Australian Copper Gold Report 3rd March 2014 WWW.LCC.ASIA Australian Gold Producers Cost Curve as at 31 December 2013 IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made . Page 4 / 4

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