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LCC copper gold report 20140224

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Information about LCC copper gold report 20140224
Finance

Published on March 1, 2014

Author: jfrancoisbertincourt

Source: slideshare.net

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WEEKLY Australian Copper Gold Report 24th February 2014 WWW.LCC.ASIA RISING GOLD ETF HOLDINGS Global Economic Fundamentals Gold Gold Silver Platinum Palladium Crude Oil Gas H.Hub Uranium (A$/oz) (US$/oz) (US$/oz) (US$/oz) (US$/oz) (US$/barrel) (US$/m btu) (US$/lb) Currencies & Indices AUD/USD RMB/USD CAD/USD ZAR/USD ASX Ordinary Gold TSX Global Gold ASX 300 Metals & Mining TSX Global Mining 1500 Last Close Price Week Change 1,477 1,324 21.8 1,424 737 100 5.93 36 ▲ 1.1% ▲ 0.4% ▲ 1.9% ▼ (0.4%) ▼ (0.1%) ▲ 0.3% ▲ 29.5% ▲ 0.1% Last Close Price Precious Metals & Energy Week Change 0.896 0.164 0.898 0.091 2,491 205 3,462 78 ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ — ▼ ▲ 4-Week Change ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ — 2% 5% 10% (0%) 0% 4% 19% 0% YTD Change ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ 3% (1%) (1%) 2% 15% 12% 6% 10% 1400 Copper Copper Cobalt Molybdenum Nickel Lead Zinc Tin Global Markets (1%) (0%) (1%) (1%) (2%) 2% 2% 1% Nov Jan 3.10 Dec Nov Dec Jan World Gold Demand and Supply Nov 2000 1200 1000 Dec 600 Total Demand (tonnes) Total Supply (tonnes) Gold Price (US$/oz) Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 500 Jan 2% (3%) (1%) 1% (0%) (9%) 2% 1% 3.70 3.50 200 3.30 0 3.10 Nov Dec Jan Feb 50 3.50 40 30 20 3.30 10 3.20 0 Price (RMB/t) 54,000 50,000 0 0 49,000 Nov Dec Jan Feb 3.40 3.10 Dec Jan Feb 250 51,000 25 3.50 Stocks ('000 t) Price (US$/lb) 300 52,000 3.60 COMEX Copper Price and Stocks Nov 53,000 Volume ('000 lot) 50 3.60 Feb SHFE Copper Price and Volume 75 1500 1000 ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ 3.10 0 Feb 4% 1% 3% 3% 1% (3%) 3% 3% 3.20 25 1500 ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ YTD Change 3.30 Volume ('000 lot) Price (US$/lb) 50 2000 4-Week Change (3%) (2%) 7% 6% 3% (3%) (1%) 3% 400 Feb COMEX Copper Price and Volume 75 2500 800 Jan ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ 3.40 100 S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) 3000 3.30 Nov Feb (3%) (0%) 13% (0%) (1%) (4%) (1%) 5% Stocks (kt) Price (A$/lb) Price (US$/lb) 3.70 0 Dec ▲ 1.5% ▼ (0.3%) ▲ 0.2% ▲ 2.6% ▼ (0.1%) ▲ 3.9% ▲ 0.9% ▼ (0.1%) ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ YTD Change LME Copper Price and Stocks 100 1100 1400 5,439 16,103 1,836 2,114 22,568 14,866 6,838 3,132 4-Week Change Week Change 600 1300 A$/oz US$/oz ▲ 1.2% ▲ 0.5% ▼ (0.3%) ▼ (0.2%) ▲ 1.2% ▲ 0.5% ▲ 0.6% ▲ 0.9% Last Close Price 3.50 1200 3.65 3.27 14.29 10.32 6.54 0.97 0.93 10.49 ASX 200 Dow Jones S&P 500 Index Shang Hai Index Hang Seng Index Nikkei 225 FTSE 100 Index Euro STOXX 50 Index Volume (kt) Price (A$/lb) Price (US$/lb) 200 Week Change (A$/lb) (US$/lb) (US$/lb) (US$/lb) (US$/lb) (US$/lb) (US$/lb) (US$/lb) LME Copper Price and Volume 300 Gold Price ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ 10% 10% 13% 4% 3% 2% 41% 4% YTD Change 4-Week Change (0.7%) (0.4%) (1.4%) (0.6%) 0.3% 0.0% (1.6%) 2.0% Last Close Price Base Metals SHFE Copper Price and Stocks 54,000 53,000 200 52,000 150 51,000 100 Stocks ('0 00 t) Price (RMB/t) 50 0 50,000 49,000 Nov Dec Jan Feb China Copper Imports 600 4.00 Tonnes (kt) Copper Price 500 3.80 400 3.60 300 3.40 200 3.20 100 0 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 3.00 Source: Capital IQ, COMEX, LME, SHFE, Thomson Reuters, WGC, LCC. Note: the SHFE copper price is based on the LME 3-month price and includes CIF premium, tax and duty IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC acc epts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made . Page 1 / 4

WEEKLY Australian Copper Gold Report 24th February 2014 WWW.LCC.ASIA Markets & Majors Copper Producers Metal Bulletin reported that some traders are bidding for copper concentrates at TC/RC of US$80/t / 8¢/lb, values more attractive for miners than the US$105/t / 10.5¢/lb paid to smelters in China. This could be interpreted as a potential squeeze in concentrate supply. Gold ETFs have registered their first net inflows in more than a year suggesting a return of investor interest, according to a report from Angel Commodities. According to the World Gold Council, gold demand in China was up 4% y/y in Q4 2013. Consumer demand in India fell by 16% to 219t. Overall, global jewellery demand was up 6%, while total bar and coin fell 6%. Central banks were net purchasers of gold for the 12th consecutive quarter, while there were outflows totalling 180t from ETFs in the quarter. Net central bank purchases totalled 61t. Demand in the technology sector was stable once again, totalling 96t, unchanged from the same period last year. In total, fourth quarter gold demand of 858t was 29% lower than Q4 2012. Total supply for the quarter was 1,124t, up 2%. Thomson Reuters reported that hedge fund Paulson & Co maintained its stake in the world's biggest gold-backed exchangetraded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, in the fourth quarter, even as others exited when bullion prices posted their biggest annual loss in 32 years. Well-known manager George Soros bought shares in Barrick Gold Corp, one of the world's top gold mining producers, while other institutional investors continued to cut their exposure to gold investments. Newmont produced 1.448 million ounces of gold and 17,000 t of copper during the December quarter 2013. Gold AISC was US$1,032/oz (-14% y/y). The average realised gold and copper prices were US$1,267/oz and US$2.99/lb respectively. Boddington produced 179,000 oz gold and 7,300 t copper with costs applicable to sales of US$1,115/oz Au and US$3.03/lb Cu. Emerging Copper Producers Code Company Name Close Price AVI AZS BTR HAV HCH HIG IRN KGL MMC MNC RXM VRX VXR YTC AVB CDU FND Avalon Minerals Azure Minerals Blackthorn Resources Havilah Resources Hot Chili Highlands Pacific Indophil Resources KGL Resources Marengo Mining Metminco Rex Minerals Ventnor Resources Venturex Resources YTC Resources Avanco Resources Cudeco Finders Resources 0.010 0.036 0.17 0.25 0.46 0.071 0.20 0.115 0.014 0.029 0.44 0.07 0.008 0.25 0.068 1.73 0.17 Weekly YTD Market 52 Week Change Change Cap (A$m) Range — ▼ ▼ — ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ — ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ 0% (10% ) (3% ) 0% 6% 13% (5% ) 5% (7% ) (6% ) (8% ) 2% 0% 6% (4% ) 4% (8% ) 0% 20% (37% ) 0% 8% 16% 21% 10% (7% ) (6% ) (9% ) (41% ) (20% ) 9% (4% ) (4% ) (19% ) Cash (A$m) 12 26 27 30 160 61 241 16 16 51 82 5 12 82 92 405 94 2.7 2.3 16.3 4.6 8.2 9.6 215.1 7.8 4.5 7.8 20.9 0.9 3.4 25.8 16.6 47.4 12.9 Source: ASX, Capital IQ, LCC. A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.90 EV (A$m) 9 23 11 25 152 51 26 8 39 43 61 5 9 121 75 357 81 Close Price Code Company Name ABY AOH DML HGO OZL PNA SFR SRQ TGS Aditya Birla Minerals 0.33 ▲ Altona Mining 0.18 ▼ Discovery Metals 0.039 ▼ Hillgrove Resources 0.092 ▲ OZ Minerals 3.78 ▼ PanAust 1.98 ▲ Sandfire Resources 6.15 ▼ Straits Resources 0.007 — Tiger Resources 0.37 ▼ Weekly Market 52 Week YTD Change Change Cap (A$m) Range 2% (3% ) (9% ) 1% (4% ) 0% (6% ) 0% (1% ) (3% ) 6% (26% ) 2% 20% 9% (5% ) (13% ) 7% 103 93 22 109 1,147 1,179 957 9 297 Cash EV EV/ (A$m) (A$m) EBITDA 118 20 13 17 364 145 75 12 42 (14) 84 180 140 783 1,214 1,112 119 311 0.0x 6.3x NM 3.9x 4.5x 3.7x 8.8x NM 5.0x Source: ASX, Capital IQ, LCC. Assumption: A$/US$ of 0.90. December quarter figures are in regular font, earlier financial figures are in italics Mergers & Acquisitions Balamara Resources (ASX: BMB) has reached an agreement to sell its portfolio of non-core base metal assets in the Balkans region to a European consortium for a total of A$15 million cash. Intrepid Mines (ASX/TSX: IAU) has signed binding agreements to settle all disputes surrounding the Tujuh Bukit copper gold project in Indonesia. IAU will receive a settlement payment of US$80 million. Orinoco Gold (ASX: OGX) reached an agreement with Troy Resources and Amazõnia Mineração to acquire the former Sertão gold mine in Brazil. The Sertão mining lease provides an opportunity to fast-track processing of ore extracted from OGX’s flagship Cascavel gold project. The leases are located just 5 and 28 km by road from Cascavel. The management of Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR) has indicated that OZ Minerals is unlikely to bid for SFR, particularly considering the impending change of leadership at OZL. ASX-listed Company News Alkane Resources (ASX: ALK) has reached another major milestone with the pouring of its first gold bar at 100% owned Tomingley gold mine. The first pour weighing 8.2 kg and containing approximately 230 ounces of gold, is the final milestone in delivering this project on-time and on-budget. Excelsior Gold (ASX: EXG) has delivered a maiden ore reserve at its Kalgoorlie North project in Western Australia of 5.7 million tonnes of 2.22 g/t gold. OZ Minerals (ASX: OZL) has received a letter from a Sydney law firm that says it represents a former shareholder of Zinifex and that the person intends to commence on behalf of all Zinifex shareholders who acquired shares in OZ Minerals, a representative proceeding against OZ Minerals in the Federal Court of Australia in relation to OZ Minerals’ alleged failure to disclose information to the market on the refinancing of its debt in 2008. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC acc epts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made . Page 2 / 4

WEEKLY Australian Copper Gold Report 24th February 2014 WWW.LCC.ASIA PanAust (ASX: PNA) reported a profit after income tax for the year of US$43.7 million (vs. US$158.3m in 2012), which includes impairment of exploration assets totalling US$50.9 million. EBITDA of US$272.5 million was within guidance. PNA declared a final dividend of A$0.03 per share bringing the total dividends declared for the year to A$0.06 per share. The Phu Kham C1 cash cost was US$1.36/lb copper (2012: US$1.11/lb copper), and the all‐in sustaining cost was US$2.37/lb copper. The Ban Houayxai C1 cash cost was US$611/oz gold (for the seven months of commercial production during 2012: US$537/oz gold), and the all‐in sustaining cost was US$964/oz. Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) posted a net profit after tax of $35.449 million in the six month period to 31 December 2013, despite the significant challenges caused by reduced commodity prices. The average gold price received reduced by 11% from A$1,630/oz to A$1,444/oz and the average silver price fell 26% from A$30/oz to A$22/oz relative to the six months ended 31 December 2012 The unit cash operating cost for the current period was A$766/oz, a 2% increase on the prior period cash unit operating cost of A$749/oz. The modest increase was the net result of 12% lower production in the current period from Cracow, Pajingo, Edna May and Mt Rawdon, offset by lower operating costs resulting from the initial results of cost reduction programmes. Kingsgate Consolidated (ASX: KCN) reported a statutory loss after tax of A$4.9 million for H1 FY2014. EBITDA (before significant items) of was A$27.9 million. Gross cashflow from operations for the half‐year was of A$41.5 million. OceanaGold Corporation (ASX: OGC) reported record full year gold production of 325,732 ounces in 2013, slightly ahead of guidance and strong copper production with 23,059 tonnes produced for the year. Cash costs net of copper by-products of $426/oz for the full year, were lower than the 2013 cash cost guidance. All-In Sustaining Costs amounted to US$868/oz for the full year. Debt was reduced by US$45 million during the quarter. Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS) posted a A$58.5 million loss for H1 FY2014 compared to a loss of A$5.7 million loss for the H1 FY 2013. Cash at the end of December 2013 was A$2 8million. Regis Resources (ASX: RRL) advised that the operations at its Duketon gold mine have been significantly impacted by a major one in 150 year rainfall event.. Open pit mining at Garden Well and Rosemont are suspended for 4–6 weeks during which time the processing plants will be fed from run of mine stockpiles. Emerging Gold Producers Code Company Name Close Price Weekly YTD Market Cap Change Change (A$m) 52 Week Cash EV Range (A$m) (A$m) ABU ALK AZM BAB CHZ CDG CVG CAS GCY GRY IDC IAU KGD MSR MYG OBS PAN ABM Resources Alkane Resources Azumah Resources Bullabulling Gold Chesser Resources Cleveland Mining Convergent Minerals Crusader Resources Gascoyne Resources Gryphon Minerals Indochine Mining Intrepid Mines Kula Gold Manas Resources Mutiny Gold Orbis Gold Panoramic Resources 0.029 0.40 0.046 0.060 0.14 0.11 0.013 0.30 0.17 0.19 0.062 0.26 0.10 0.042 0.029 0.35 0.42 ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ — — ▼ ▲ — ▲ ▼ — — — ▼ ▲ (3%) (7%) 2% 28% 8% 0% 0% (2%) 6% 0% 7% (14%) 0% 0% 0% (5%) 77% 32% 18% 64% 33% 29% 5% (19%) (2%) 21% 9% 44% (19%) (5%) 31% (9%) 40% 66% 95 149 16 21 30 25 5 37 27 74 65 142 13 17 15 77 134 5.1 43.3 3.3 4.3 4.6 0.6 0.7 2.2 1.2 41.7 0.5 98.2 3.2 5.6 1.7 5.5 34.0 90 106 13 16 25 25 4 40 26 32 64 44 9 12 20 71 100 PIR PXG RED RNI ROL SIH SXG SUM WAF YTC Papillon Resources Phoenix Gold Red 5 Resource & Investment Robust Resources Sihayo Gold Southern Cross Goldfields Sumatra Copper & Gold West African Resources YTC Resources 1.30 0.17 0.10 0.090 0.30 0.031 0.016 0.10 0.16 0.25 ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ — ▲ ▲ ▲ (7%) (6%) (5%) 14% (5%) (3%) 0% 2% 14% 6% 32% 3% 14% 70% (16%) 3% 23% 39% 14% 9% 441 40 76 28 30 29 14 40 40 82 43.6 4.6 36.7 3.0 2.5 0.5 5.1 4.0 4.0 25.8 397 35 39 40 34 29 16 39 38 121 Source: ASX, Capital IQ, LCC. Assumptions: A$/US$ of 0.90 and A$/C$ of 1.00 Gold Producers Code Company Name AQG AGD BDR BEZ CRK DRM DRA EVN EVR IGO KCN KRM LSA MML MLX MOY MLI NCM NGF NST OGC PNA PGI PRU RMS RRL RSG SAR SBM SLR TBR TGZ TRY UML VGO ANG ABX GFI NEM Alacer Gold Austral Gold Beadell Resources Besra Gold Crocodile Gold Corp Doray Minerals Dragon Mining Evolution Mining Endeavour Mining Corp Independence Group Kingsgate Consolidated Kingsrose Mining Lachlan Star Medusa Mining Metals X Millennium Minerals Mintails Newcrest Mining Norton Gold Fields Northern Star Resources OceanaGold Corporation PanAust PanTerra Gold Perseus Mining Ramelius Resources Regis Resources Resolute Mining Saracen Mineral Holdings St Barbara Silver Lake Resources Tribune Resources Teranga Gold Corp Troy Resources Unity Mining Vantage Goldfields AngloGold Ashanti Barrick Gold Corp Goldfields Newmont Mining Corp Close Price 2.99 0.13 0.78 0.044 0.28 0.94 0.16 0.89 0.79 4.29 1.29 0.39 0.23 2.14 0.23 0.20 0.057 11.11 0.13 1.17 2.62 1.98 0.049 0.45 0.16 2.56 0.65 0.37 0.40 0.68 2.72 1.15 1.42 0.039 0.037 195.72 23.29 43.18 23.38 Weekly YTD Market 52 Week Change Change Cap (A$m) Range ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ — ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ — ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ — ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ 6% 32% 4% 4% (7% ) (2% ) 10% (2% ) 10% 129% (5% ) 67% (3% ) 19% 7% 45% (1% ) 63% 1% 38% (8% ) 38% (3% ) 15% (8% ) 15% 2% 5% 2% 35% (3% ) 3% 2% 2% 1% 42% 0% (7% ) 9% 48% 5% 65% 0% 9% 4% 20% (12% ) 82% 0% 65% (17% ) (12% ) (1% ) 17% (10% ) 100% 5% 54% (4% ) 27% 1% 17% 5% 109% 0% 80% (11% ) (5% ) 23% 42% 2% 59% 4% 24% (3% ) 31% (2% ) 2% 874 21 613 11 112 153 14 631 331 1,001 211 129 34 445 381 42 15 8,510 116 574 802 1,179 38 234 58 1,279 417 220 195 298 137 352 238 27 9 8,025 27,182 3,387 12,991 Cash EV/ EV (A$m) (A$m) EBITDA 322 9 24 1 28 24 6 37 119 46 37 1 3 23 50 10 4 121 41 49 28 145 6 28 33 13 50 23 70 17 9 39 18 10 1 725 2,688 358 1,739 551 73 658 36 90 178 8 736 512 1,019 350 128 35 422 331 63 11 13,027 190 525 968 1,214 82 206 30 1,276 461 219 455 289 147 379 251 18 8 11,484 41,177 5,419 21,952 2.4x 7.4x 65.3x NM 0.4x NM 38.1x 2.1x NM 16.2x 4.3x NM NM 6.2x 21.5x 2.6x NM 12.3x NM 7.4x 4.0x 3.7x NM 19.2x NM 5.0x 3.9x 3.9x NM NM 2.1x NM 3.4x 0.1x 3.0x 6.6x 6.7x 5.7x 6.1x Source: ASX, Capital IQ, LCC. Assumption: A$/US$ of 0.90. December quarter figures are in regular font, earlier financial figures are in italics IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC acc epts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made . Page 3 / 4

WEEKLY Australian Copper Gold Report 24th February 2014 WWW.LCC.ASIA Australian Gold Producers Cost Curve as at 31 December 2013 IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability o f any such information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC acc epts no obligation to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made . Page 4 / 4

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