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Published on June 17, 2008

Author: knksmart

Source: slideshare.net

The Application of Austrian Business Cycle Theory by Gregory B. Christainsen Las Vegas, April 7, 2003 The Great Depression and Recent Cycles in the US and Japan

Austrian Business Cycle Theory Nonneutral Injections of Money, Misdirection R: Capital Goods vs. Consumption Goods Later Reversal in Relative Prices and Resource Allocation Frictions, Unemployment

Nonneutral Injections of Money, Misdirection

R: Capital Goods vs. Consumption Goods

Later Reversal in Relative Prices and Resource Allocation

Frictions, Unemployment

A Metaphor: Pour in Honey P K P C

“ Secondary Deflation” The Gold Standard Nonperforming loans, withdrawals from questionable banks, decline in the M S and/or its velocity What to Do?

The Gold Standard

Nonperforming loans, withdrawals from questionable banks, decline in the M S and/or its velocity

What to Do?

Updating the Theory Responsiveness of C to R Durable Goods Proceeds from Refi’s Wealth Effects on C Duration of High-Tech Company Investments (dot.com cash flows) “ R” vs. “Cost of Capital”

Responsiveness of C to R

Durable Goods

Proceeds from Refi’s

Wealth Effects on C

Duration of High-Tech Company Investments (dot.com cash flows)

“ R” vs. “Cost of Capital”

Bubbles Money and Financial Markets Technology Psychology/Animal Spirits

Money and Financial Markets

Technology

Psychology/Animal Spirits

THE JAPANESE BUBBLE Money Growth and Misdirection 1991 Nonperforming Loans mm, MB, Secondary Deflation Insolvent Banks, Depositors Recapitalization Fiscal Policy?

Money Growth and Misdirection

1991

Nonperforming Loans

mm, MB, Secondary Deflation

Insolvent Banks, Depositors

Recapitalization

Fiscal Policy?

Stock Prices Before and During the Great Depression 1922 1929 1933 S & P Composite Index CPI S & P

Share Prices: Japan vs. US CPI-Japan

Capital Goods vs. Consumption Goods (US)

Money and Prices: Broad Measures

1998: The Plot Thickens Monetarists Call for Rate Hikes! Russia’s Default LTCM September, October, & November Rate Cuts?!

Monetarists Call for Rate Hikes!

Russia’s Default

LTCM

September, October, & November Rate Cuts?!

Jerry Jordan’s Dissent, May 1998 “ Mr. Jordan...noted that the monetary and credit aggregates had accelerated further from already rapid growth rates in 1997. In his view, these high growth rates were fueling unsustainably rapid increases of real estate and other asset prices ...the Committee would face a choice between smaller increases in interest rates sooner versus larger increases later.”

November Dissent “ Mr. Jordan dissented because he believed that the two recent reductions in the Federal funds rate were sufficient responses to the stresses in financial markets that had emerged suddenly in late August. An additional rate reduction risked fueling an unsustainably strong growth rate of domestic demand. ”

1999: A Tiger by the Tail [Despite 3 Rate Hikes; Note Y2K]

2000: The Bubble Bursts Hiatus for Base Growth Misdirections Revealed Tech Wreck-- Lucent et. al. Lucent

Hiatus for Base Growth

Misdirections Revealed

Tech Wreck-- Lucent et. al.

2001-2002: Go-Stop-Go Amidst Deflationary Pressures

The Outlook Cautious Optimism Still a Tiger by the Tail? Housing Bubble?

Cautious Optimism

Still a Tiger by the Tail?

Housing Bubble?

Housing Price Bubble? 1975 1995 2002 HOUSING CONSUMER GOODS

Current US vs. Other Cases Aggressive Central Bank Dependable deposit insurance Diversification, securitization and risk management But note J.P. Morgan Chase, housing loans

Aggressive Central Bank

Dependable deposit insurance

Diversification, securitization and risk management

But note J.P. Morgan Chase, housing loans

Assessment The Fed Cannot Escape a Good Part of the Responsibility for the Bubble in Asset Prices and the Subsequent Recession 2004: Asian Central Banks, Housing! Not All--or Even Most--Knowledge Is in the Hands of Government Authorities Hindsight Is Easier than Foresight

The Fed Cannot Escape a Good Part of the Responsibility for the Bubble in Asset Prices and the Subsequent Recession

2004: Asian Central Banks, Housing!

Not All--or Even Most--Knowledge Is in the Hands of Government Authorities

Hindsight Is Easier than Foresight

Denationalizing the Creation of Base Money The Market as a Spontaneous Discovery Procedure NZ as an alternative The Myth of Central Bankers as ‘God’

The Market as a Spontaneous Discovery Procedure

NZ as an alternative

The Myth of Central Bankers as ‘God’

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