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Published on March 25, 2008

Author: Jolene

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Slide1:  Overview of Civil Aviation Infrastructure International Conference on Aviation, Aero India 2007 Bangalore, 8-9 February 2007 Slide2:  International reputation as the leading specialist aviation consultancy in the Asia Pacific Consulting & Advisory Consulting activity is supported by our renowned Market Research and Intelligence Unit. Market Research & Intelligence Our philosophy is simple: to present our clients and business partners with an unrivalled depth of expertise delivered by skilled and experienced professionals. Our highly acclaimed events attract industry leaders and provide unique opportunities for the exchange of ideas and experiences Industry Summits & Roundtables Introducing the Centre CAPA’s client base spans close to 1,000 of the leading aviation companies right around the world Global Clients Slide3:  Established in 1990 by Founder, Peter Harbison Headquartered in Sydney Regional offices in: New Delhi Singapore Geneva UK Canada Representatives in Auckland, Bangkok, Beijing, Seoul & Tokyo World Business Partner of Airports Council International Member of Pacific Asia Travel Association Close ties with IATA – jointly publish “Regulatory Affairs Review” Background Slide4:  Airport marketing and development strategy Airline start-up planning and management Restructuring and privatisation Passenger and freight traffic forecasting Market and industry trend analysis Tourism development policy strategies Investment evaluation and risk assessment Government policy and regulatory analysis Consulting & Advisory The Centre has undertaken over 300 projects covering a diverse range of issues, including: Consulting & Advisory The Growth Opportunity in Indian Aviation :  The Growth Opportunity in Indian Aviation “Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation projects domestic traffic in India will grow 25-30% p.a., and international by 15% p.a. until 2010 India’s airports handled 51.0 million domestic passengers in 2005/06, posting growth of 28% year-on-year, and 22.4 million international passengers, up 15.1%. In the 6 months ended 30 September 2006, domestic traffic has increased a massive 44% year-on-year. Growth is underpinned by economic expansion, increased capacity and price stimulation resulting from increased competition. Slide6:  Passenger Traffic Growth 1999-2006 Slide7:  Cargo Traffic Growth 1999-2006 An Unprecedented Growth Profile:  India’s Market Evolution: 1992-2006F Total Airport Passengers* (millions) An Unprecedented Growth Profile Strong Fundamentals Mean Growth Should Continue:  CAPA Indian Domestic Market Forecast: Business vs Leisure/VFR (1996-2010F*, millions Strong Fundamentals Mean Growth Should Continue Domestic Market Share: LCCs vs Full Service Carriers: Oct-06 to Nov-06 :  Domestic Market Share: LCCs vs Full Service Carriers: Oct-06 to Nov-06 Indian Domestic Market Share by Carrier: Oct-06 to Nov-06 :  Indian Domestic Market Share by Carrier: Oct-06 to Nov-06 Full Service Indian Carriers Passenger Load Factor: (Jan-05 to Nov-06) :  Full Service Indian Carriers Passenger Load Factor: (Jan-05 to Nov-06) Indian LCC Passenger Load Factor: (Jan-05 to Nov-06) :  Indian LCC Passenger Load Factor: (Jan-05 to Nov-06) The Airports’ Role All Indian Airports Monthly Passenger Traffic: Jan-04 to May-06 :  Domestic up 73% May 2006 v May 2004 International up 32% The Airports’ Role All Indian Airports Monthly Passenger Traffic: Jan-04 to May-06 The Airports’ Role Mumbai Maintains Dominance of International:  Mumbai Monthly Passenger Traffic: Jan-04 to May-06 The Airports’ Role Mumbai Maintains Dominance of International The Airports’ Role For others, market growth is domestic:  Chennai Monthly Passenger Traffic: Domestic up 83% The Airports’ Role For others, market growth is domestic The Airports’ Role For others, market growth is domestic:  Bangalore Monthly Passenger Traffic: Domestic up 82% The Airports’ Role For others, market growth is domestic Airport Modernisation Plan :  Airport Modernisation Plan Joint venture companies with 74% private sector participation were appointed in January 2006 to modernise and upgrade New Delhi and Mumbai Airports. Stage I completion scheduled for 2009/10. New Delhi & Mumbai Currently handles 18 million pax and 400,000 tonnes cargo Expected to increase capacity to 40 million pax and 1 million tonnes cargo after the current modernisation phase. Planned investment of USD1.6 billion by 2020, of which USD1.3 bn will take place by 2014. Mumbai Airport Currently handles 13 million passengers. Expected to increased capacity to 35 million by 2010. Plans include a new 4 million sq ft terminal building in the first phase Development includes an additional parallel runway (to be completed by March 2008) and connectivity by metro rail. Planned investment of USD764 million by 2014 and USD1.7 billion by 2020 Delhi Airport Indian Government has announced a national airport upgrade and modernisation plan which will see an investment of approximately US$9 billion by 2010 Airport Modernisation Plan:  Airport Modernisation Plan Both airports are likely to be developed using a joint venture model. Chennai is likely to have a greenfield airport due to a shortage of land at the current site. Kolkata could be modernised by the AAI, but there is also a possibility of greenfield airport. The AAI is spending USD27 million to construct a new warehouse and integrated cargo building, with planned investment of USD140 million for the construction of a new domestic terminal and aerolink. The AAI is investing USD24 million to extend the second runway, construct 21 parking bays, extend the domestic security hold and install 3 aerobridges. USD53 million is to be spent on the international terminal. Chennai & Kolkata Airports New greenfield airports in both cities are under construction and scheduled to open by April 2008. Bangalore Airport involves an investment of USD500 million and will have a capacity of 11 million pax by 2010. Hyderabad International Airport is being constructed at a cost of USD400 million and phase will see capacity of 7 million pax (increasing to 50 million in phase 2) and 100,000 tonnes of cargo. Bangalore & Hyderabad Airports Airport Modernisation Plan:  Airport Modernisation Plan Development of 35 non-metro airports will proceed at an estimated cost of USD1.2 billion. City side development will require a further USD350 million, with the modernisation process to be completed by 2009. Techno-economic feasibility studies, including master plans, have been approved for 10 airport such as Ahmedabad, Amritsar, Goa, Guwahati, Jaipur, Lucknow, Madurai, Managlore, Trivandrum and Udaipur. A further 15 airport approvals are expected shortly and urgent operational requirements are being addressed at a further 10 non-metro airports. 35 Non-Metro Airports A number of greenfield airport projects are being considered in the Northeast region with capability to handle up to ATR-72 aircraft: Pakyong Airport, Gangtok, Sikkim: detailed project report forwarded to the Planning Commission for evaluation. Estimated cost of INR340 crores (including land acquisition); Cheithu Airport, Kohima, Nagaland: consultant appointed and techno-economic feasibility in progress; Itanagar: consultant to be appointed for study of Banderdeva site. Northeast Region Airport Modernisation Plan:  Airport Modernisation Plan A number of proposals have been submitted for development of greenfield airports from state governments other than the Northeast. These include: Mopa, Goa Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra Chakan/Rajguru, Pune, Maharashtra Kannur, Kerala Hassan & Gulbaraga, Karnataka Halwara, Punjab Other Greenfield Airports The Government of India is spending USD25 million per annum on upgradation of CNS/ATM infrastructure. A further USD180 million investment is expected over the next 3-4 years on modernisation projects, including GAGAN. Massive investment is required in communications, navigation and surveillance. CNS/ATM Slide22:  Current Projects at Non-Metro Airports Outlook India 2020 :  Outlook India 2020 CAPA research projects that domestic passenger traffic will reach 150-180 million by 2020, with international traffic in excess of 50 million. Air Traffic The total aircraft fleet is likely to reach 1000, including replacement of the current fleet of 275 aircraft, with an estimated value of US$80bn + Scheduled Aircraft India currently only has 166 aircraft registered for General Aviation purposes (40% of which are >20 years old. There is a likely to be a market for up to 500 general aviation aircraft by 2020, including fleet renewal, with an estimated investment of US$2 billion. General Aviation A total of US$30bn investment is required, including US$9bn already identified, plus construction of greenfield facilities at Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Kolkata, Chennai, Goa, Nagpur, Ludhiana, Amritsar, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, Kannur, Srinagar etc; and upgrade of existing facilities. The airports system may be handling over 400 million passengers per annum by 2020. Airports The growth of India’s aviation sector has the potential to absorb up to US$120 billion of investment by 2020……..however, we must close the gap between the demand for aviation services and the ability of our aviation system to meet that demand: - India must prepare a blueprint for the expansion of system capacity whilst maintaining safety, security and the environment - India must develop a roadmap for infrastructure development beyond 2010 Outlook India 2020 :  Outlook India 2020 There will be significant investment opportunities in the MRO sector with the potential to service a fleet of 1000 commercial and 500 general aviation aircraft. Investments in the pipeline include: Boeing, US$100 million Jupiter Group, US$200 million Other interested parties eg. AAR, Wadia/SIA Engineering, Kingfisher/Taneja, Airbus/HAL, a further US$200 million MRO The massive expansion in fleet size will drive derived demand for trained pilots and investment in training academies. Planned investments include: RR Industries/Thales, US$200 million Others, US$100 million such as Indira Gandhi Academy, Jet Airways simulators Pilot Training The growth in the sector will require major investment in air safety and security. Who will fund this investment? Safety & Security Significant investment of up to US$5bn will be required in developing world class ground handling, cargo and logistics facilities, including high output distribution centres at major airports. Ground Handling, Freight & Logistics Key Issues Ahead:  Key Issues Ahead Air safety and the incorporation of standards…how will it be funded? ATC development, consider corporatising subsidiary of AAI A policy framework with a vision towards aviation in 2020 Modernisation of the current regulatory framework Addressing airline viablity through the reduction of structural costs Environmental issues and concerns, India need to be aware of developments in other parts of the world eg. carbon trading Key Issues Slide26:  Thank You

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