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JohnBare 11sept07

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Published on December 4, 2007

Author: Altoro

Source: authorstream.com

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Risk Management and Social Change in the Nonprofit Sector:  Risk Management and Social Change in the Nonprofit Sector Sept. 11, 2007 John Bare Arthur M. Blank Family Foundation jbare@ambfo.com Risk Analysis:  Risk Analysis Risk Assessment What can go wrong? What is the likelihood that it would go wrong? What are the consequences? Risk Management What can be done and what options are available? What are the associated tradeoffs in terms of costs, benefits and risks? What are the impacts of current management decisions on future options? Types of Risk:  Types of Risk Idea Risk Implementation Risk Evidence Risk Risk Across a Portfolio:  Risk Across a Portfolio Program Performance Evaluations & Measurement:  Program Performance Evaluations & Measurement Performance (Getting to Maybe, “I Have A Dream”) Evaluation vs. Auditing Accountability (Cost Accounting Standards, the Office of Federal Procurement Policy Act and the Government Performance and Results Act of 1993) The Rise of an Accountability Culture …:  The Rise of an Accountability Culture … … Amid Little Attention to Social Change:  … Amid Little Attention to Social Change Sept. 8, 1993 Getting to Maybe Traditional Purposes of Evaluation:  Traditional Purposes of Evaluation  Judgment of merit and worth  Program/organizational learning and improvement  Oversight and compliance  Knowledge development Source: Evaluation, by Mark, Henry and Julnes (2000, Jossey-Bass) Game of Rhetorical Persuasion …:  Game of Rhetorical Persuasion … Michael Hooker described philanthropy as: “a game of rhetorical persuasion where the rules regarding honesty and candor are suspended or subtly altered, just as they are in poker” Michael Hooker, “Moral Values and Private Philanthropy,” Social Philosophy & Policy, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 129-141. Understanding the Paradox:  Understanding the Paradox Our only hope for doing well rests on rewarding news about and solutions for whatever it is we’re doing poorly. … … Yet individual and organizational incentives reward a lack of honesty and candor. Rewards and Incentives in an Accountability Culture:  Rewards and Incentives in an Accountability Culture Rewards and Incentives in an Accountability Culture:  Rewards and Incentives in an Accountability Culture Tools for Advancing Performance & Social Change:  Tools for Advancing Performance & Social Change Risk Analysis Systems Approaches / Feedback Loops Testing Assumptions (part of planning/evaluation checklist) Outside View (remedy for delusional optimism) Sensemaking Game Theory Scenario Planning Documentary Methods How Social Change Happens:  How Social Change Happens C = (D + V + P) > X C = Pressure to change D = Level of dissatisfaction with the status quo V = Clear, shared vision for something better (i.e., desirability of proposed change) P = Use of process that removes obstacles blocking access to desired state X = Cost of changing Adapted from Bob Bontempo, Columbia Business School, and from Thomas Packard, http://www.improve.org/tqm.html Discovering “Activation Points”:  Discovering “Activation Points” Who do you need to persuade … to do what? What stage of persuasion is the audience in currently (build knowledge, build will, or reinforce action)? What can be done to build the audience’s will to act? What barriers need to be overcome and how? When is the best time to persuade Once your action is taken, how do you reinforce that action? From Spitfire Strategies, www.activationpoint.org Performance Checklist:  Performance Checklist 1. Outcomes – For what will we hold ourselves accountable? Or: How will we define success? 2. Baseline – Against what agreed upon starting point will we compare future observations? 3. Activities – What will we do to move the needle on our outcomes? 4. Feedback Loops – What information will we track in real-time to celebrate what’s going well and to make adjustments when needed? 5. Assumptions – What assumptions will we test explicitly along the way? 6. Risk – What are the consequences of what’s most likely to go wrong? 7. Timeline – At what frequency will we compare observed progress against expected progress? Evaluation to Maximize Performance – Change the world!:  Evaluation to Maximize Performance – Change the world! Measurement = Feedback You measure: Whatever information you need to track in real-time to celebrate what’s going well and to make adjustments when needed. Evaluation to Maximize Performance – Change the world!:  Evaluation to Maximize Performance – Change the world! Invest time and energy in measuring variables that: pose a risk to your success. allow you to test your assumptions. tell you which future may be emerging (and which contingency plan is most likely to help you succeed). Evaluation to Maximize Performance – Change the world!:  Evaluation to Maximize Performance – Change the world! Understand the System In Which You Are Working Frequency and nature of feedback are proportionate to the uncertainty and volatility in your environment. Evaluation to Maximize Performance – Change the world!:  Evaluation to Maximize Performance – Change the world! Align Evaluation With the Nature of the System In Which You Are Working Simple Complicated Complex Slide21:  Evaluation and Systems Thinking Adapted from Getting to Maybe, Westley, Zimmerman, Patton (2006, Random House Canada) Delusional Optimism:  Delusional Optimism Cognitive Biases Anchoring Competitor Neglect Exaggerating Our Abilities and Control Organizational Pressures We approve proposals with the highest probability of failure. We reward optimism and interpret pessimism as disloyalty “Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives’ Decisions,” Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman, Harvard Business Review, July 2003 Remedy: The Outside View:  Remedy: The Outside View Select a set of past projects to serve as reference class. Assess the “distribution of outcomes.” Predict your project’s position in the distribution. Assess your prediction’s reliability. Correct your intuitive estimate. Risk Analysis:  Risk Analysis Risk Assessment What can go wrong? What is the likelihood that it would go wrong? What are the consequences? Risk Management What can be done and what options are available? What are the associated tradeoffs in terms of costs, benefits and risks? What are the impacts of current management decisions on future options? Types of Risk:  Types of Risk Idea Risk Implementation Risk Evidence Risk Managing Risk Within a Portfolio:  Managing Risk Within a Portfolio Identifying Risk Tolerances Spreading Risk Mitigating Risk Separating Consequences from Risky Behaviors Free-riding Risk Across a Portfolio:  Risk Across a Portfolio

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