John Felmy

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Information about John Felmy
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Published on January 24, 2008

Author: Demetrio

Source: authorstream.com

John C. Felmy Chief Economist and Director Statistics Department American Petroleum Institute Felmyj@api.org www.api.org www.gasolineandyou.org www.naturalgasfacts.org :  Petroleum and Natural Gas Situation John C. Felmy Chief Economist and Director Statistics Department American Petroleum Institute Felmyj@api.org www.api.org www.gasolineandyou.org www.naturalgasfacts.org What is needed in a National Energy Policy?:  What is needed in a National Energy Policy? Conservation and energy efficiency are important but are insufficient alone. Renewable energy is an important but small source of energy. Until it’s cost is reduced, it will continue to be a small source. Even with improved efficiency and more renewable energy, we will still need more conventional energy – oil, coal, natural gas and nuclear. Robustness, Redundancy and Diversity Slide3:  EIA Forecast of Winter Fuel Costs – October 2004 Slide4:  NOAA Winter Outlook Déjà vu, All Over Again:  Déjà vu, All Over Again 2003 Early 2003 Cold winter Venezuela shutdown Nigerian strikes Iraq High crude oil prices California MTBE ban transition start Summer 2003 Blackout Pipeline problems Strong demand Japanese nuclear outages 2004 OPEC cuts Cold winter Japanese nuclear outages Venezuela uncertainty Iraq uncertainty Nigerian uncertainty Terrorist attacks Norwegian Strikes Yukos Strong economic growth Dollar depreciation High crude oil prices High natural gas prices Lower sulfur gasoline California finishes MTBE ban transition Mississippi river accident Refinery outages Strong gasoline demand NY/CT MTBE bans Hurricanes Slide6:  Crude oil futures prices - NYMEX Slide7:  Gasoline - Retail Slide8:  Gasoline and crude oil prices Slide9:  Crude oil and gasoline prices – from lows to highs Slide10:  Diesel and crude oil prices Slide11:  Natural gas prices have been above year ago levels Slide12:  NYMEX propane futures prices are at or near record levels Slide13:  NYMEX heating oil prices are at record levels Slide14:  NYMEX coal prices Slide15:  OPEC Capacity - EIA Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Slide16:  EIA Crude Oil Forecast Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Slide17:  EIA Natural Gas Forecast Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Slide18:  U.S. Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIA Slide19:  U.S. Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIA Slide20:  U.S. Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIA Slide21:  U.S. Energy Consumption Shares – 2025 - EIA Slide22:  U.S. Residential Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIA Slide23:  U.S. Industrial Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIA Slide24:  U.S. Electricity Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIA Slide25:  Transportation Fuel Shares – 2003 - EIA Slide26:  Petroleum Product Use Shares – 2003 - EIA Slide27:  Petroleum Product Usage – 2003 - EIA Slide28:  Petroleum Product Shares – 2003 - EIA Slide29:  Natural Gas Shares – 2003 - EIA U.S. Energy Consumption – Quadrillion Btus AEO 2004 - EIA:  U.S. Energy Consumption – Quadrillion Btus AEO 2004 - EIA EIA Forecast to 2003 to 2025:  EIA Forecast to 2003 to 2025 Real Gross Domestic Product is projected to increase by 92 percent Population is projected to increase by 19 percent Renewable energy supply is projected to increase by 50 percent Energy efficiency (output per unit of energy) is projected to improve by 27 percent Net petroleum imports are projected to increase, providing 70 percent of U.S. demand in 2025. Growth in petroleum demand is led by transportation, where efficiency improvements are more than offset by growing travel demand and petroleum’s market share increases slightly. Crude oil production falls by 19 percent. Imports of crude oil grow by 65 percent. Petroleum product imports increase by 80 percent. Refinery capacity expands from 16.8 to 21.8 million barrels per day Refinery utilization is projected to increase from 91 to 95 percent World Energy Consumption – Quadrillion Btus - EIA:  World Energy Consumption – Quadrillion Btus - EIA World Energy Demand:  World Energy Demand Total Energy Other Energy Solar & Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass, MSW Solar & Wind Oil Gas Coal Other 1.7 1.2 2.9 1.8 Growth Rate 2000-2020, % Solar Wind MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE Growth Rate 2000-2020, % Growth Rate 2000-2020, % 1.3 0.2 2.4 14.0 10.4 Source: ExxonMobil Forecast demand growth:  Forecast demand growth ROW LA Other Asia Pacific OECD Source: ExxonMobil Massive supply growth needed:  Massive supply growth needed Source: ExxonMobil Non-OPEC Crude Undeveloped / Undiscovered NGL / Other Non-OPEC Crude Developed Non-OPEC Total 44 Non-OPEC Crude NGL/ Condensate Other OPEC Crude World Oil Balance: 2000 - 2020:  Latin America 3.5 2.0 FSU & Eastern Europe 3.1 6.8 Europe 7.2 10.6 Middle East Asia Pacific US/Canada 2000 2010 2020 Africa 5.3 8.1 Net Imports, MBD Net Exports, MBD 13.6 12.6 10.6 12.1 30.1 12.3 2000 2010 2020 8.8 7.2 2000 2010 2020 4.1 2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020 6.2 2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020 18.2 World Oil Balance: 2000 - 2020 21.8 34.5 27.2 18.5 Source: ExxonMobil Technology:  Technology Can be expected to adapt over several generations Markets work – they provide flexibility and discipline Attempts to replace oil prematurely are likely to be costly “Running out” is not likely Developing additional supply will be challenging:  Developing additional supply will be challenging Non-OPEC production shifting to new challenging frontiers Gulf OPEC needs to double capacity Capital needs are enormous Policy:  Policy Promotion of free investment and trade is essential Accurate depiction of impact of resource development is key Opposition to oil development is a serious threat One Word:  One Word Hydrates Slide41:  First – Do No Harm! Slide42:  Global Change – What is really happening? History:  History Carbon vs Solar:  Carbon vs Solar Slide45:  Second quarter 2004 industry profits were below average Slide46:  Industry profits in perspective Slide47:  Industry concentration

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