Published on February 27, 2014
2013 Solar Industry Job Census Briefing 2226 Rayburn House Office Building Jason Walsh, Senior Advisor February 11, 2014
Impact of EERE Investments in Solar R&D Actual vs. Counterfactual Cost Curves Counterfactual Actual V. Counterfactual Reliability Curves Actual Actual Counterfactua l • EERE’s $3.7B investment in solar photovoltaic R&D from 1975 to 2008 resulted in a net economic benefit of $15B (2008 dollars) due to module efficiency and reliability improvements. • EERE R&D accelerated solar industry by 12 years 3
First Solar: Driving Innovation in Ohio’s Factories • 1990s: DOE’s NREL funding led to boom in start-up thin-film PV companies. • Led to First Solar LLC, now a leading worldwide PV manufacturer based in Ohio. • 2012: First Solar installed its 10 millionth PV module in the 550 MW Desert Sunlight Solar Farm project in Riverside County, California • 4 By 2015, Desert Sunlight Solar will be one of the two largest solar PV projects in the world A First Solar associate handles photovoltaic materials at the company's Ohio manufacturing plant Courtesy of First Solar
DOE LPO Launched Utility-Scale PV Market in the U.S. U.S. Projects Over 100MW 1705 Program Ends Five LPO Projects 1510 MW $4.6 Billion in Loans CA CA NV NV NM NM AZ AZ Zero Projects 2010 5 Ten Privately Financed Projects 2488 MW 2011 2012 2013 5
Concentrating Solar Power Became a Reality in the U.S. Solana Arizona Ivanpah California • Completed in 2014 • 390 MW Concentrated Solar Project • $1.6 billion loan guarantee 6 • Completed in 2013 (250 MW) • ‘Nighttime Solar’ - 6 Hours of Thermal Energy Storage • $1.45 billion loan guarantee Tonopah Nevada • 2014 - Expected Completion (110 MW) • ‘Nighttime Solar’ - 10 Hours of Thermal Energy Storage • $737 million loan guarantee 6
SunShot Utility Scale Progress by Q4 2012 $4.00 Installed System Price ($/WDC) $3.50 $0.29 $3.00 $2.50 $1.56 $0.13 $0.13 Power Electronics Balance of Systems Module $1.27 $0.06 $2.27/W $2.00 $1.03 $1.50 $1.00 $1.00/W $0.18 $1.95 $0.10 $0.40 $0.50 $0.00 7 $3.80/W Reduction Opportunities 2010 Modeled System Reductions by 2013 Power Electronics Balance of Systems Module $0.50 SunShot Goal
Largest Cost Reduction Opportunity: Soft Costs Installed System Price ($/WDC) LBNL and NREL analyses show balance of system costs, or “soft costs”, such as permitting, installation and inspection costs $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 $0.29 $1.56 $0.13 $0.13 Power Electronics Balance of Systems $1.27 $0.06 Module $1.03 $1.00/W $1.95 $0.18 $0.10 $0.40 $0.50 Source: LBNL, http://emp.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/germanus-pv-price-ppt.pdf; NREL http://www.nrel.gov/news/press/2012/2038.html 8
Soft Costs Dominating Overall Costs Balance of system costs account for up to 50% 64% of the cost of a solar installation Not decreasing as quickly as equipment costs 9 Source: Second Annual Benchmarking…”, Friedman et al., in preparation.
Rooftop Solar Challenge (2011-2013) • 22 teams, 50 million people • Best practices developed, shared, and harmonized • Easier, cheaper, and one week faster to go solar on average 10
One week per installation adds up . . . PV Installed in RSC locales: Residential: 225 MW 37,960 Residential Systems Commercial: 357 MW = Which means the RSC saved Americans from… Average Business Days Saved Per Install = 5.1 3,148 Commercial Systems Average Business Days Saved Per Install = 4.1 OVERYEARS OF RED TAPE ~800 10 LIFETIMES SAVED 11
SunShot 2030 Vision: Rapid Solar Deployment 12
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