Published on October 8, 2009
Irrelevant at Best Celebrity Endorsements and Voter Mobilization in the Run-Up to the 2009 European Election in Germany Landau, October 8th, 2009 Thorsten Faas, Harald Schoen Email: Thorsten.Faas@uni-mannheim.de Symposium ÊCampaigning for Europe. Parties, Campaigns, Mass Media and the European Parliamentary Elections 2009”
Some recent examples … 1
Some recent examples … 2
Even more common: Turnout 3
Even more common: Turnout 4 Does it work?
ÊAnswers“ Given in the Literature 5 • Some work done in the US – Mixed results – Underlying Mechanisms far from resolved – ÊBrute Force“-Designs • Hardly any (if any) work done in Germany Our Starting Point: Cover Germany, but also extend existing literature by improving research designs
Online Survey Experiment 7 • Online survey experiment conducted (in cooperation with YouGovPsychonomics, based on their online panel) • Survey was fielded from June 3-6, n=1.351, including eight experimental conditions • Dependent Variable (Baseline Version): – ÊThe European Election will take place on June 7th. How likely is it that you will turnout to vote?“ – Possible answers ranging from 0 (Êwill definitely not vote“) to 10 (Êwill definitely vote“)
Experimental Condition 1 (Control Group): 8 ÊThe European Election will take place on June 7th. How likely is it that you will turnout to vote?“
Experimental Condition 2/3: 9 ÊThe European Election will take place on June 7th. Celebrities – like Oliver Kahn [Johanna Klum]– have called on people to cast their vote. How likely is it that you will turnout to vote?“
Experimental Condition 4/5: 10 ÊThe European Election will take place on June 7th. How likely is it that you will turnout to vote?“ ÊBRUTE FORCE“-APPROACH
Unobtrusive Experimental Condition 6/7/8: 11
Results: Likelihood of Voting by Exp. Condition 13 8,0 Sig. Difference p<0,05 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 al al en um al n l al en ro de rb su su rb dd dd nt id ve ve vi vi Co hi hi lh hn um hn hn um ra Ka Ka Kl Kl Ka ut Kl Ne
Online Survey Experiment 15 • Panel Survey • In a first wave, we have a baseline measurement of the likelihood of turnout, in addition we have ratings for the celebrities in terms of ... – ... Fame (in the sense of being known) – ... Popularity (in the sense of being liked) • We also have a third wave after the election to test for the stability of possible effects. • The experimental conditions were part of the second wave
Results: Difference in the Likelihood of Voting 16 Condition 4 is the only one to yield a 0,5 significant difference from zero 0,3 0,0 Neutral hidden Kahn hidden Klum hidden Klum verbal Klum visual Control Kahn verbal -0,3 Kahn visual -0,5
60,0 65,0 70,0 75,0 80,0 Co nt Ka ro hn l ve Kl rb um al ve rb Ka al hn vi su Kl um al vi Ka su hn al hi dd Kl en um Ne hi dd ut en ra lh id de n Stability of Effects (Reported Turnout from Wave 3) 17
Further Research 18 • Subgroup Analysis – … by age – … by popularity of celebs – ... by prior level of certainty – … by response latencies • Additional experiments in the run-up to the federal election (with celebrities endorsing parties) • Thanks a lot for your attention!
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