Irrelevant at Best: Celebrity Endorsements and Voter Mobilization in the Run-Up to the 2009 European Election in Germany

75 %
25 %
Information about Irrelevant at Best: Celebrity Endorsements and Voter Mobilization in the...
News & Politics

Published on October 8, 2009

Author: tfaas

Source: slideshare.net

Description

Celebrity Endorsements are a standard feature of modern election campaigns. Mostly used to boost turnout, we test to what extent such endorsed campaigns are effective. Our experimental findings indicate that they are irrelevant at best.

Recent European Elections were plagued by a notoriously low turnout, throughout Europe, but especially in Germany. In 2004, only 43 per cent of eligible voters actually turned out to vote there – the lowest turnout ever reported in a nationwide German election. A strategy to boost turnout in the 2009 European election (employed – among others – by the European Parliament) was the endorsement of turnout by celebrities. Some scattered findings from the U.S. suggest that such endorsed GOTV-campaigns have the potential to mobilize voters, but the designs usually employed is far from optimal and hence, the issue of the effectiveness of such campaigns (and their underlying mechanisms) is far from settled. Making use of design combining an experimental element with a three-wave panel design (based on an online access panel), we put the effectiveness of endorsed GOTV-campaign to a rigorous test (employing a total of eight experimental conditions) – and we find, that they are irrelevant at best. In one case (based on a “polarizing” celebrity), we even find some detrimental effects on turnout. Hence, GOTV-campaigns endorsed by celebrities are by no means a perfect solution to boost turnout.

Irrelevant at Best Celebrity Endorsements and Voter Mobilization in the Run-Up to the 2009 European Election in Germany Landau, October 8th, 2009 Thorsten Faas, Harald Schoen Email: Thorsten.Faas@uni-mannheim.de Symposium ÊCampaigning for Europe. Parties, Campaigns, Mass Media and the European Parliamentary Elections 2009”

Some recent examples … 1

Some recent examples … 2

Even more common: Turnout 3

Even more common: Turnout 4 Does it work?

ÊAnswers“ Given in the Literature 5 • Some work done in the US – Mixed results – Underlying Mechanisms far from resolved – ÊBrute Force“-Designs • Hardly any (if any) work done in Germany Our Starting Point: Cover Germany, but also extend existing literature by improving research designs

Data

Online Survey Experiment 7 • Online survey experiment conducted (in cooperation with YouGovPsychonomics, based on their online panel) • Survey was fielded from June 3-6, n=1.351, including eight experimental conditions • Dependent Variable (Baseline Version): – ÊThe European Election will take place on June 7th. How likely is it that you will turnout to vote?“ – Possible answers ranging from 0 (Êwill definitely not vote“) to 10 (Êwill definitely vote“)

Experimental Condition 1 (Control Group): 8 ÊThe European Election will take place on June 7th. How likely is it that you will turnout to vote?“

Experimental Condition 2/3: 9 ÊThe European Election will take place on June 7th. Celebrities – like Oliver Kahn [Johanna Klum]– have called on people to cast their vote. How likely is it that you will turnout to vote?“

Experimental Condition 4/5: 10 ÊThe European Election will take place on June 7th. How likely is it that you will turnout to vote?“ ÊBRUTE FORCE“-APPROACH

Unobtrusive Experimental Condition 6/7/8: 11

Results

Results: Likelihood of Voting by Exp. Condition 13 8,0 Sig. Difference p<0,05 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 al al en um al n l al en ro de rb su su rb dd dd nt id ve ve vi vi Co hi hi lh hn um hn hn um ra Ka Ka Kl Kl Ka ut Kl Ne

Data II

Online Survey Experiment 15 • Panel Survey • In a first wave, we have a baseline measurement of the likelihood of turnout, in addition we have ratings for the celebrities in terms of ... – ... Fame (in the sense of being known) – ... Popularity (in the sense of being liked) • We also have a third wave after the election to test for the stability of possible effects. • The experimental conditions were part of the second wave

Results: Difference in the Likelihood of Voting 16 Condition 4 is the only one to yield a 0,5 significant difference from zero 0,3 0,0 Neutral hidden Kahn hidden Klum hidden Klum verbal Klum visual Control Kahn verbal -0,3 Kahn visual -0,5

60,0 65,0 70,0 75,0 80,0 Co nt Ka ro hn l ve Kl rb um al ve rb Ka al hn vi su Kl um al vi Ka su hn al hi dd Kl en um Ne hi dd ut en ra lh id de n Stability of Effects (Reported Turnout from Wave 3) 17

Further Research 18 • Subgroup Analysis – … by age – … by popularity of celebs – ... by prior level of certainty – … by response latencies • Additional experiments in the run-up to the federal election (with celebrities endorsing parties) • Thanks a lot for your attention!

Add a comment

Related presentations

Cfbp barometre octobre

Cfbp barometre octobre

November 10, 2014

VITOGAZ vous présente: CFBP baromètre gpl carburant

Ata Escrita da 16ª Sessão Ordinária realizada em 16/10/2014 pela Câmara de Vereado...

Ata Escrita da 10ª Sessão Extraordinária realizada em 16/10/2014 pela Câmara de Ve...

Rx1 nasil kullanilir

Rx1 nasil kullanilir

November 8, 2014

Rx1 zayiflama hapi, kullanimi nasildir, yan etkileri var mi? yan etkiler var ise h...

Esposto del MoVimento 5 Stelle sul Patto del Nazareno

Slide Servizi postali

Slide Servizi postali

November 7, 2014

Slides per i servizi postali presentati in occasione dell'incontro azienda e organ...

Related pages

Celebrity Endorsements – www.thorstenfaas.de

... Celebrity Endorsements – Irrelevant at Best. ... Celebrity Endorsements and Voter Mobilization in the Run-Up to the 2009 European Election in Germany ...
Read more

Irrelevant at Best - thorstenfaas.de

Irrelevant at Best Celebrity Endorsements and ... 2009 European Election in Germany. ... • Additional experiments in the run-up to the federal election ...
Read more

Universität Mannheim - Vorträge

Evidence from the 2009 Federal Election. ... Irrelevant at Best. Celebrity Endorsements and Voter Mobilization in the Run-Up of the 2009 European ...
Read more

Publikationen

... The CDU online campaign for the general election 2009 in Germany; ... The German federal election of 2009: ... The Big Five in Five Big European ...
Read more

Youth Targeted Voter Mobilization by Kevin Bondelli ...

Share Youth Targeted Voter Mobilization ... Irrelevant at Best: Celebrity Endorsements and Voter Mobilization in the Run-Up to the 2009 European Election ...
Read more

Civic and Voter Education

Civic and Voter Education. Civic and Voter Education as PDF/printable document . Civic and Voter Education Index. The link between education and civic life ...
Read more

Media and Elections - ACE Electoral Knowledge...

... (eds), Media and Elections: a Handbook ... the three televised debates between the party leaders in the run-up to the election. ... Germany, and ...
Read more

Political Communication - scribd.com

Political Communication Media & Public Affairs Robert Mann, Series Editor Media & Public Affairs, a book series published by Louisiana State University ...
Read more

Schriftenverzeichnis (PDF) - Sowi - Universität Mannheim

Schriftenverzeichnis (PDF) - Sowi - Universität Mannheim ... integration code for your site or blog. Width: (Auto)
Read more