Ipsos MORI January 2016 Political Monitor

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Information about Ipsos MORI January 2016 Political Monitor

Published on January 28, 2016

Author: IpsosMORI

Source: slideshare.net

1. 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR 28.01.2016

2. VOTING INTENTIONS

3. Voting Intention HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 39% 33% 10% 5% 8% 5% All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention Conservative lead = +6 Conservative lead = +9 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM OTHER 40% 31% 11% 4% 7% 7% Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 752. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out. 3

4. SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

5. Satisfaction with leaders and the Government Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016. . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” 5 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF UKIP? +2.5% swing from December 2015 -0.5% swing from December 2015 -1.5% swing from December 2015 -1.5% swing from December 2015 -1.5% swing from December 2015 -9 Net -18 Net -18 Net -10 Net -20 Net SATISFIED 42% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 36% DISSATISFIED 51% DISSATISFIED 49% DISSATISFIED 49% DISSATISFIED 32% DISSATISFIED 56%

6. Satisfaction with Party leaders Dec’8 – Jan’16 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 6HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 42% 31% CAMERON CORBYN FARRON FARAGE 31% 22%

7. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 7HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER Netsatisfaction Number of months from becoming Prime Minister Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

8. David Cameron (satisfaction) Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016. 8ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 42% 51% 7% January 2016 August 2006 –January 2016 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 May-06 Oct-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone SATISFIED 42% DISSATISFIED 51% DON’T KNOW 7% Net = -9 Dissatisfied Satisfied

9. David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters) Base: 332 Conservative supporters 18+ 23rd – 25th January 2016. 9ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 82% 14% 4% January 2016 July 2006 – January 2016 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 May06 Aug06 Jan07 Jun07 Sep07 Jan08 Apr08 Jul08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone SATISFIED 82 DISSATISFIED 14 DON’T KNOW 4 Net = +68 Satisfied Dissatisfied Jan-16

10. 31% 49% 20% Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction) 10ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2016 SATISFIED 31 DISSATISFIED 49 DON’T KNOW 20 Net = -18 Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016. September 2015 – January 2016 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-15 Dissatisfied Satisfied

11. 54% 32% 14% Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction) 11ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 306 Labour supporters 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016. SATISFIED 54% DISSATISFIED 32% DON’T KNOW 14% Net = +22 January 2016 September 2015 – January 2016 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-15 Dissatisfied Satisfied

12. 22% 32% 46% Tim Farron (satisfaction) Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016. 12ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2016 SATISFIED 22% DISSATISFIED 32% DON’T KNOW 46% Net = -10 September 2015 – January 2016 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-15 Dissatisfied Satisfied

13. 61% 22% 17% Tim Farron (satisfaction) Base: 72 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016. N.B. small base size, indicative only. 13ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2016 (Lib Dem supporters only) SATISFIED 61% DISSATISFIED 22% DON’T KNOW 17% Net = +39 September 2015 – January 2016 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-15 Dissatisfied Satisfied

14. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-152 Apr-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Nigel Farage (satisfaction) Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016. 14ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 31% 49% 20% January 2016 March 2013 – January 2016 SATISFIED 31% DISSATISFIED 49% DON’T KNOW 20% Net = -18 Dissatisfied Satisfied

15. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-152 Apr-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Nigel Farage (satisfaction) Base: 67 UKIP supporters 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016. N.B. small base size, indicative only. 15ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 87% 12% 1% January 2016 March 2013 – January 2016 SATISFIED 87% DISSATISFIED 12% DON’T KNOW 1% Net = +75 Dissatisfied Satisfied

16. ECONOMIC OPTIMISM

17. Economic Optimism Index Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016. 17DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2016 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Mar-04 Dec-04 Sep-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 May-08 Feb-09 Nov-09 Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-12 Dec-12 Sep-13 Jun-14 Mar-15 Jan-16 IMPROVE 26% STAY THE SAME 31% GET WORSE 39% DON’T KNOW 4% EOI = -13

18. The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December 18DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Dec1997 Jul1998 Feb1999 Sep1999 Apr2000 Nov2000 Jun2001 Jan2002 Aug2002 Mar2003 Oct2003 May2004 Dec2004 Jul2005 Feb2006 Sep2006 Apr2007 Nov2007 Jun2008 Jan2009 Aug2009 Mar2010 Oct2010 May2011 Dec2011 Jul2012 Feb2013 Sep2013 Apr2014 Nov2014 Jun2015 Jan2016 -13

19. PARTY IMAGE

20. Parties and their leaders, and whether they look after the interests of people like you WHICH POLITICAL PARTY IF ANY DO YOU THINK……… Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 43% 16% 4%2% 3% 16% 16% ….has the best team of leaders to deal with the country’s problems? ….would be best at looking after the interests of people like you Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016 20 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM OTHER NONE OF THESE DON’T KNOW 33% 29% 8% 5% 5% 9% 10%

21. Parties and their policies WHICH POLITICAL PARTY IF ANY DO YOU THINK……… Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 35% 25% 6% 4% 4% 10% 15% ….has the best policies for the country as a whole? ….is most clear and united about what its polices should be Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016 21 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM OTHER NONE OF THESE DON’T KNOW 33% 13% 11%5% 8% 15% 15%

22. SHAREHOLDER DIVIDEND AND THE LIVING WAGE

23. Support for withholding shareholder dividend if do not pay the living wage. (Split Sample) 23 I’D NOW LIKE YOU TO THINK ABOUT THE LIVING WAGE. THE LIVING WAGE IS A SALARY WHICH IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR WORKERS TO HAVE A NORMAL STANDARD OF LIVING, MEANING THEY HAVE ENOUGH MONEY TO BE ABLE TO AFFORD EVERYDAY THINGS LIKE FOOD, TRANSPORT AND PAYING BILLS. Source: Ipsos MORI 17% 66% 5% SUPPORT OPPOSE DON’T KNOW 24% 60% 5% A) Does not mention Jeremy Corbyn B) Mentions Jeremy Corbyn Base: Split sample A) 514 B) 513 British adults aged 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016 IT HAS BEEN PROPOSED [BY JEREMY CORBYN] THAT COMPANIES SHOULD BE BANNED FROM PAYING THEIR SHAREHOLDERS DIVIDENDS UNLESS THEIR STAFF EARN THE LIVING WAGE. PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THIS IDEA?

24. TRIDENT AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS

25. Support for nuclear disarmament (Split Sample) 25 Source: Ipsos MORIBase: Split sample A) 514 B) 513 British adults aged 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016 58% 34% 8% SUPPORT OPPOSE DON’T KNOW 70% 24% 6% A) Could you please tell me whether you support or oppose the following policy? Get rid of all nuclear weapons in Britain. B) Could you please tell me whether you support or oppose the following policy? Get rid of all nuclear weapons in Britain even if other countries keep theirs.

26. 52% 28% 16% 5% Future of Britain's Trident submarines AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE IS A DEBATE CURRENTLY ON WHETHER OR NOT BRITAIN SHOULD REPLACE ITS TRIDENT SUBMARINES WHICH ARE NEARING THE END OF THEIR LIFE. THESE ARE THE SUBMARINES FROM WHICH BRITAIN WERE TO LAUNCH NUCLEAR MISSILES IF IT WAS EVER TO DO SO Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor BUILD NEW SUBMARINES AND HAVE THEM CARRY NUCLEAR WARHEADS BUILD NEW SUBMARINES BUT DO NOT HAVE THEM CARRY NUCLEAR WARHEADS DO NOT BUILD NEW SUBMARINES SO TO DISCONTINUE THE TRIDENT PROGRAMME DON’T KNOW 26 Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016 IN A RECENT INTERVIEW, JEREMY CORBYN, THE LABOUR LEADER, SAID IF THESE SUBMARINES ARE REPLACED THEY "DON’T HAVE TO HAVE NUCLEAR WARHEADS ON THEM". THIS WOULD MEAN THE SUBMARINES WOULD BE REPLACED BUT DO NOT CARRY NUCLEAR WEAPONS, ALTHOUGH THEY WOULD HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO DO SO. WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW ABOUT RENEWING BRITAIN’S TRIDENT SUBMARINES?

27. 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

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