Published on February 18, 2014
IPCC Summary Report about the Physical Science Basis for Climate Change… This report summarises the Working Group 1 contribution to the IPCC’s fifth assessment report on climate change (due 2014). This summary tries to explain the scientific basis for climate change conclusions, and the new science that has emerged since the last assessment report. FEBRUARY 2014
WHAT DOES IT SAY. The science is getting even stronger, with care being taken to respond to criticism of past reports. This looks like much better scientific consilience than Darwin had in The Origin of Species. The IPCC now says that is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. FEBRUARY 2014
WHAT ELSE DOES IT SAY. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased. Since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The increase in concentration of greenhouse gases is the enhanced greenhouse effect. It is also called radiative forcing. More than 90% of the extra energy stored in the last forty years has gone into ocean warming. . FEBRUARY 2014
WHAT ELSE DOES IT SAY. The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia. And yes, there are multiple lines and levels of evidence for this. Most of the 20 cm sea-level rise of the last 100 years has been due to ocean surface warming. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of our CO2 emissions, causing ocean acidification. The ocean’s pH is lowering, upsetting the delicate balance of carbonate concentrations, causing coral decay to outpace coral formation. FEBRUARY 2014
WHAT DOES IT MEAN. • This report is all about ‘global mean’ observations, and obviously there are regional and local variations. A good example is the higher sea-level in the Philippines relative to California, due to the predominant trade winds. • This report is really well laid out, and really does give good summary language for policy-makers to use. I hope they do; this looks like a slow-onset disaster. The comments on these slides are the views of Tim Kirby, Sydney. You should always read the report itself before putting your reputation, or any money on the line. Tim Kirby, Sydney CA, CIA, LA-EMS au.linkedin.com/in/timkirbysydney FEBRUARY 2014
REFERENCE IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. FEBRUARY 2014
Physical Science Basis of Climate Change: IPCC 2007 Jagadish Shukla Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies Apr 29, 2008 CLIM 759: Topics in Climate Dynamics.
IPCC Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis. IPCC AR5 "The Physical Science Basis": Challenges, Structure and Timetable. Thomas Stocker.
IPCC Working Group I Summary For Policymakers: The Physical Science Basis. ... Climate Drivers Future Choices: ...
... the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ... Report Category: ... Download IPCC Chief Lays Out Climate Basics for Treaty ...
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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis 1. Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change (CC) 2. Direct Observations of Recent CC 3. A Paleoclimatic.
18 April 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Chapter 5:Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level The Working Group I Report of.