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Initial Jobless Claims and Commodity Tips

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Information about Initial Jobless Claims and Commodity Tips
Business-Finance

Published on March 13, 2014

Author: Sreelu42

Source: authorstream.com

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PowerPoint Presentation: Ini t i a l J o bless C l a ims a n d Co m m odity Tips Cr u d e o il p ric e s fi n is h ed o n a h i gh ly wea k er n o te y e ster d ay, ex t en d i n g its lo ss es for a l m o st all o f the we e k. Oil p rices d ecli n ed o n a n tici p at i o n o f a su b d u ed i n ven t o ry re p o rt f r o m the U S , whereas l a ter d e v e l o p m ents a n d c o mme n ts fr o m the US g o v ern me n t a b o u t the rel e ase o f s o me Stra t eg i c Pet r o le u m Res e r ves al s o a dd ed wei g h t to the c o m m o d i t y. At c l o se, WTI cr ud e for the A p ril ex p iry at the N Y M E X was n ear $ 98 p er b ar r el, l o wer b y a r o un d 2% f o r the d ay. In the I n d ian markets, the MCX cr ud e t o o s a w a hug e fa l l, with t h e c o m m o d ity fi n is h ed d o wn b y a r o un d 2.5%, fi r m l y b e l o w 6 00 0. The h i gh er fa l l l o cal l y was led b y antici p a ti o n o f a pp reciati o n in the ru pe e o n Fr id ay; p o st t h e r elea s e o f b etter data l o cal l y. Wh i le the N Y M EX o il f ell d u e to its i n h e rent we a kne s s, Brent also e x te nd ed i t s l o sse s , t h o ug h it was a b etter p er f o r m er a g ai n st i t s US b ased p eer. At c l o s e, Brent o il f o r t h e A p ril ex p i ry at ICE was l o wer b y 0.5% t o $ 1 0 8 p er b ar r el. The i n ter n atio n al b enc h mark m a n a g e d to i n cr e ase its p r e m i u m a g ai n st the WTI to $ 1 0 a b ar r el. A g ai n st the m a jor c om m o d ity rela t ed cues, the US E IA in its we e kly i nv en t o ry r eport said cr u d e s t o c k s j u m p ed b y 6.2 mi l l i o n b ar r els for the w e ek en d ed M a rch 7, n early three t i me m a rket ex p ec t at i o n s. T o tal cr ud e s t o cks h it n ear 3 7 0 mi l l i o n b ar r els, its h i gh est le v els si n c e D ec e m b er last y e ar. Wh i le s om e p o sitiv i ty c a me in the fo r m o f a hug e fa l l in g asol in e i n vent o r i es, which d e c l in ed b y o ver 5 mi l l i o n b ar r els, the cl o sely w a t c h ed d istil l ate st o c k p i l es f ell l o wer than ex p e ct e d . Refi n e r y u til iz at i o n t o o d ecli n ed b y 1 . 4% a n d af f e ct e d the b r o a d er m o v e m e n t in the c o mm o d ity. H o w e v e r , it should b e n o t ed that w e h a v e al r e a d y t alk e d abo u t a fall in refi n e r y r u n s, as th i s is us u al l y the le a n de m a n d per i o d a n d U S b ased refi n er i es car r y o u t s eas o n al mai nt ena n ce. The o ther as p e ct wh i ch a dd ed f u el to the s ell in g p r e ssu r e was r epo r ts that the US Ener g y Depa r tm ent w o u ld r elea s e 5 mi l l i o n b a rrels o f o il f r o m i t s Str a te g ic P et r o le u m R ese r ve (S P R ) o n a t est b asis. Wh i le the m ark e ts are spec u lat i n g that th i s c o u ld b e a p roce s s a g ai n st a n y un ex p e c ted c o n cerns ar i si n g in Eu r asia, the US g o v ern me n t o ff i cia l s d en i ed the s a me a n d d escri b ed the re l ease as a "te s t sale" t o e v al u a t e h o w t h e r e se r ve s yst e m wo r ks to rele a se a n d sell t h e o i l . In the early m o r n i n g tra d e, the c o mm o d ity h as o p e n e d m o d erate l y p o siti v e a n d i s cu r rently a dd i n g n ear 0.3 5 % t o $ 98 . 30 p er b ar r e l. Wh i le the ma r k e ts w o u ld fi n al l y see s o m e im p o rt a n t d ata t o d a y, the d a t a from C h i n a o n I n du strial p ro du ct i o n w o u ld b e w a tc h ed clo s ely. We a l so h a ve s o m e i m p o r tant nu m b ers from t h e US d u e th i s e ven ing . O v erall t h o ugh , t h e i n h erent f und amen t als for t h e c o mm o d ity c o n ti nu e t o b e we a k a n d we a r e mai n tai n i n g o u r b earish b ias o n the c o m m o d i t y. W e re c o mm end i n itiati n g f r e s h selli n g o n pu l l-b acks. We a re l i ke l y t o see a m o d era t ely p o sit i ve o p en in g in M C X cr ud e, mai n l y du e to g ai n s in the N Y MEX in ear l y tra d e t o d a y Glo b al mark e t a n al y sis: C r ud e o il fell hug e p o s t the we e kly p e tr o l eum i n ven t o r y nu m b e r , which s h o we d a rise in s t o ckpi l es. A n o t h er fac t o r that i s l i k ely to p u ll o il p ri c es f u rth e r l o wer is the U S ' a nn o un ci n g a test sa l e o f o il fr o m the s t r ate g ic p et r o le u m re s er v es (SPR). W e rei t era t e t w o s c ena r ios h e r e, eit h er the US is r unn i n g the test t o u se its o wn o il o r the sa n ct i o n o n U krai n e c o u ld b e a t ri g g er. N o n et h e l ess, o il c o n ti nu es t o b e b earish a n d th i s m o r n i n g , it is tra d i n g at $ 9 8. 3 1. W e c o n ti nu e to h o ld a b earish v i ew o n the sa m e. H o w e ver, eq u i t ies tra d i n g m o d era t ely h i g h er mi gh t ar r e st the f al l . We l o o k to s ell i n g the c o m m o d i t y o n pu l lb acks. N atu r al g as fell g reatly last n i gh t a n d is n o w tra d i n g at $4. 4 7 0 a n d lo o ks l i ke it may fall f u rther in the nea r - term and s o , w e r e c o m m e n d sel l i n g o n e ve r y ri s e. F r o m the ec o n o mic d ata f r o n t, we h a ve C h i n a ' s i n du s trial p ro d u ct i o n nu m b er, a key d a ta t o w atch h o w the As i an a n d Eu r o p ean m arkets w o u ld react. We a ls o h a v e the US re t ail sales, jo b less cla i ms a n d the bu si n ess i n ven t o r i es nu m b e r . C o mm od i t y Ti p s SELL C RU D E O I L MCX MAR ON RISE N EAR 6 0 4 5 SL 6 1 2 0 T G T 59 60 T od a y E c ono m i c D a ta I n d i c a t o r s : DA T E 13. 0 3. 1 4 TIME 1 3 : 0 0 Region CH Indic a t or I n du strial P r o du cti o n Y T D Y o Y Pe r i o d Feb Su r vey 9.5% Pr i o r 9.7% 13. 0 3. 1 4 1 8 : 0 0 EC ECB P ub l i sh e s M o n th l y R e p o rt --- ---- ---- 13. 0 3. 1 4 1 8 : 0 0 US Retail Sa l es A d va n c e M o M Feb 0.2% - 0.4% 13. 0 3. 1 4 1 8 : 0 0 US Retail Sa l es Ex A u to Mo M Feb 0.5% 0.0% 13. 0 3. 1 4 1 8 : 0 0 US I n itial Jo b less Cla i ms 3 9 5 0 8 --- 3 2 3K 13. 0 3. 1 4 1 8 : 0 0 US Co n ti nu i n g Clai m s 4 6 7 8 4 --- 2 9 7 0 K 13. 0 3. 1 4 1 8 : 0 0 US Im p o rt P r i ce I n d e x Mo M Feb 0.6% 0.1%

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