Influenza Pandemic

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Information about Influenza Pandemic
Business & Mgmt

Published on August 5, 2009

Author: SocietyofActuaries

Source: slideshare.net

Current Topic: Influenza Pandemic Max J. Rudolph, FSA CERA MAAA Rudolph Financial Consulting, LLC www.rudolphfinancialconsulting.com ERM Symposium April 30, 2009

Influenza Basics 8 genes made of RNA Can live for up to 2 days on hard surfaces (air?) lungs are only human cells with the right enzyme RNA mutates easily (DNA does not)

8 genes made of RNA

Can live for up to 2 days on hard surfaces (air?)

lungs are only human cells with the right enzyme

RNA mutates easily (DNA does not)

The Numbers 1918-1920 About 25% contracted flu and 20-100 million died worldwide US: 25% morbidity, 2.5% mortality .25 * .025 = .6% excess mortality 675,000 died in US (population is 3 times larger today)

About 25% contracted flu and 20-100 million died worldwide

US: 25% morbidity, 2.5% mortality

.25 * .025 = .6% excess mortality

675,000 died in US (population is 3 times larger today)

Impact of Poverty Combination of poverty/secondary infections drives greater impact in 3 rd world countries High risk today HIV/TB/malaria Areas of malnutrition Africa

Combination of poverty/secondary infections drives greater impact in 3 rd world countries

High risk today

HIV/TB/malaria

Areas of malnutrition

Africa

Pandemic Scenarios US Dept HHS 1,903,000 209,000 Deaths 742,500 64,975 Mechanical Ventilation 1,485,000 128,750 ICU care 9,900,000 865,000 Hospitalization 45 million (50%) 45 million (50%) Outpatient medical care 90 million (30%) 90 million (30%) Illness Severe(1918-like) Moderate (1958-like) Characteristic

Risk to Insurers Insurance risk Mortality and morbidity Economic risk (liquidity) Global recession likely Counterparty risk Reinsurer solvency Business continuity Claims and customer service

Insurance risk

Mortality and morbidity

Economic risk (liquidity)

Global recession likely

Counterparty risk

Reinsurer solvency

Business continuity

Claims and customer service

Mortality Curve: U or W Shape? Source: 1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics Jeffery K. Taubenberger* and David M. Morens†

Why a severe scenario could happen Supply chain constraints Health care Food/Energy/Services Virus mutations build resistance to drugs At risk population (HIV, cancer, diabetes) Poverty and malnutrition Reaction time Travel Vaccines take 6-9 months to develop

Supply chain constraints

Health care

Food/Energy/Services

Virus mutations build resistance to drugs

At risk population (HIV, cancer, diabetes)

Poverty and malnutrition

Reaction time

Travel

Vaccines take 6-9 months to develop

Why a severe scenario won’t happen Better health care Intensive care units Germ theory Antibiotics Antivirals Better coordination between human and animal disease researchers Working toward a vaccine

Better health care

Intensive care units

Germ theory

Antibiotics

Antivirals

Better coordination between human and animal disease researchers

Working toward a vaccine

“ With the recent development of hygiene and sanitation as marked as it is, the world felt safe against the possibilities of any new conflagration from influenza. But the experience of the last two years has demonstrated that we are not so far advanced in our knowledge of this disease, of its cause and of the methods of its control as we thought we were.” James D. Craig and Louis I. Dublin Actuarial Society of America Transactions (Vol. XX, Part 1 No. 61)

Thank you! [email_address] (402) 895-0829 www.rudolphfinancialconsulting.com

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