India In Recession Pradeep Tewani

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Information about India In Recession Pradeep Tewani
Finance

Published on October 8, 2009

Author: pradeeptewani

Source: slideshare.net

Description

This is the presentation which I made for a Paper presentation competition. and i won the 1st prize.. wat better way to start my life on slideshare...

The topic was "India in Recession?". the question mark in the end signified that we could take our stand whether India was in a recession (that's in early 2009)... I took my stand, presented hypotheses, and proved it..

“ INDIA IN RECESSION?” Research Paper on - By Pradeep Tewani

CONTENTS Introduction What is Recession? Hypotheses Methodology Findings Conclusion

Introduction

What is Recession?

Hypotheses

Methodology

Findings

Conclusion

INTRODUCTION US is suffering from the worst financial turmoil since the Great Depression Reasons – sub-prime crisis, rising oil prices, etc Tremors of the slowdown felt all over the world In September 2008, US was officially announced to be in Recession

US is suffering from the worst financial turmoil since the Great Depression

Reasons – sub-prime crisis, rising oil prices, etc

Tremors of the slowdown felt all over the world

In September 2008, US was officially announced to be in Recession

WHAT IS RECESSION In Macro Economics, Recession means:- A decline in a country’s real GDP, or Negative real economic growth for 2 or more successive quarters of a year A phase also characterized by unstable stock markets and fear, pessimism & lack of confidence in the economy

In Macro Economics, Recession means:-

A decline in a country’s real GDP, or

Negative real economic growth for 2 or more successive quarters of a year

A phase also characterized by unstable stock markets and fear, pessimism & lack of confidence in the economy

OBJECTIVE Slowdown & Recession are often mistaken as synonymous to each other This Research is aimed at determining whether the slowdown in the Indian Economy is really a phase of Recession!

Slowdown & Recession are often mistaken as synonymous to each other

This Research is aimed at determining whether the slowdown in the Indian Economy is really a phase of Recession!

HYPOTHESES Indian Economy could not decouple itself from the world economies, thus, faces a slowdown Though there is a slowdown in the Indian economy, it is not so severe to be termed as Recession

Indian Economy could not decouple itself from the world economies, thus, faces a slowdown

Though there is a slowdown in the Indian economy, it is not so severe to be termed as Recession

METHODOLOGY Inter period comparison of various parameters related to the Indian Economy Comparing the same with the definition of Recession and ,thus, arriving at a conclusion Study of the damage control measures taken by the government

Inter period comparison of various parameters related to the Indian Economy

Comparing the same with the definition of Recession and ,thus, arriving at a conclusion

Study of the damage control measures taken by the government

FINDINGS Impact of Global Turmoil on India Many sectors of the Indian Economy have been affected Reason: US is India’s largest market for exports Following areas of the Indian Economy have been covered in the research:-

Impact of Global Turmoil on India

Many sectors of the Indian Economy have been affected

Reason: US is India’s largest market for exports

Following areas of the Indian Economy have been covered in the research:-

Banking System Foreign Trade Industrial Production Foreign Capital Inflows & Capital Markets Inflation GDP & Growth Rate

Banking System

Foreign Trade

Industrial Production

Foreign Capital Inflows & Capital Markets

Inflation

GDP & Growth Rate

1. BANKING SYSTEM No Indian bank was exposed to the sub-prime markets in the USA Indian banks follow different norms to give loans RBI announced a series of measures to facilitate orderly operation of financial markets Thus, financial stability has been ensured

No Indian bank was exposed to the sub-prime markets in the USA

Indian banks follow different norms to give loans

RBI announced a series of measures to facilitate orderly operation of financial markets

Thus, financial stability has been ensured

2. FOREIGN TRADE India’s exports were 12% lower in October 2008 Slew of measures have been taken by the government to prop up exports growth Imports growth rate showed a decline from September 2008 onwards Trade deficit to be lower than the expected level

India’s exports were 12% lower in October 2008

Slew of measures have been taken by the government to prop up exports growth

Imports growth rate showed a decline from September 2008 onwards

Trade deficit to be lower than the expected level

3. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IIP fell into negative in October 2008 Growth of capital goods production slowed during April-Oct 2008. Production of consumer durables declined by 3% in October 2008

IIP fell into negative in October 2008

Growth of capital goods production slowed during April-Oct 2008.

Production of consumer durables declined by 3% in October 2008

4. FOREIGN INVESTMENTS & CAPITAL MARKET Foreign funds have withdrawn over $10 billion since April 2008 FIIs stake fell in quarter ending September 2008 Exodus of FIIs led capital markets to unimaginable lows Current Status: Markets have stabilised and are expected to rise

Foreign funds have withdrawn over $10 billion since April 2008

FIIs stake fell in quarter ending September 2008

Exodus of FIIs led capital markets to unimaginable lows

Current Status: Markets have stabilised and are expected to rise

5. INFLATION Rate of inflation was very high till August 2008 Government followed strict monetary policy to tame inflation Result: Inflation was brought under control

Rate of inflation was very high till August 2008

Government followed strict monetary policy to tame inflation

Result: Inflation was brought under control

6. GDP & GROWTH RATE Slow growth rate in 1 st half of 2008-09 as compared to previous years Slowdown set to hit the 3 rd quarter also Economy expected to recover in 4 th quarter Expected growth rate for 2008-09: around 7%

Slow growth rate in 1 st half of 2008-09 as compared to previous years

Slowdown set to hit the 3 rd quarter also

Economy expected to recover in 4 th quarter

Expected growth rate for 2008-09: around 7%

PROMPT DAMAGE CONTROL MEASURES TAKEN BY GOVT. Rs. 180000 Crore infused in the system by slashing CRR & SLR Short term borrowings made easier by reducing repo rate Inducing banks to lend by reducing reverse repo rate Monetary policies well supported by Fiscal measures, such as Rs. 20000 Crore hike in planned expenditure for 2008-09

Rs. 180000 Crore infused in the system by slashing CRR & SLR

Short term borrowings made easier by reducing repo rate

Inducing banks to lend by reducing reverse repo rate

Monetary policies well supported by Fiscal measures, such as Rs. 20000 Crore hike in planned expenditure for 2008-09

CONCLUSION Banking system is in a sound state Steps taken by the govt. have shown positive response Inflation well under control Stock markets have stabilized India’s growth rate still one of the highest in the world Monetary measures – a blessing for producers & consumers

Banking system is in a sound state

Steps taken by the govt. have shown positive response

Inflation well under control

Stock markets have stabilized

India’s growth rate still one of the highest in the world

Monetary measures – a blessing for producers & consumers

INDIA IS NOT IN RECESSION! FINAL VERDICT

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