Ifcal

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Business & Mgmt

Published on February 27, 2014

Author: mitrasubhradeep

Source: slideshare.net

IDCOL Ferro Chrome and Alloys Ltd. Valuation using DCF

Performance Performance Valuation Valuation (PAT) (Effect of Price) (Projection) (Workings) (Scenario Building) Valuation (Results) •IFCAL was a loss making unit of IDCOL in the 1990’s PAT in Rs. Lakhs As a unit of IDCOL Valuation As a Company 1996-97 (370.00) 2002-03 (955.76) 1997-98 (466.66) 2003-04 44.88 1998-99 (648.92) 2004-05 93.73 1999-00 (227.44) 2005-06 (711.78) 2000-01 (805.44) 2006-07 1042.38 2001-02 358.87 2007-08 2894.13 2008-09 1447.26 2009-10 292.40 •Since 2003, IFCAL has reported profits in 6 out of 8 years XIMB 2

Performance Performance Valuation Valuation (PAT) (Effect of Price) (Projection) (Workings) Valuation (Scenario Building) Valuation (Results) •The major cause of profits has been the increase in price of HCFC during recent years Rate (Rs/1000MT) 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 y = 13.77ln(x) + 10.13 40.00 Rate (Rs/1000MT) 30.00 Log. (Rate (Rs/1000MT)) 20.00 10.00 - XIMB 3

Performance Performance Valuation Valuation (PAT) (Effect of Price) (Projection) (Workings) Valuation (Scenario Building) Valuation (Results) •Projection has been done from 2011 to 2015 •A logarithmic equation is fitted to predict future price of HCFC •Production is assumed to grow linearly so as to touch 19000MT in 2015E •Items in income statement are projected using average ‘percentage of sales’ from past data •In BS, NWC has been projected using average percentage of sales data. •No Capex investments have been assumed •Loans & Advances have been assumed to go down by 10% each year XIMB 4

Performance Performance Valuation Valuation (PAT) (Effect of Price) (Projection) (Workings) Valuation (Scenario Building) Valuation (Results) ASSUMPTIONS: •Funds from L&A are diverted to Investments •10 Yr Govt. of India bond yield is taken as risk free return (source: Bloomberg) •Market risk premium is taken as 10.76% based on secondary data •Gross block doesn't increase •Tax rate has been taken as 32.5% •There is no change in inventory XIMB 5

Performance Performance Valuation Valuation (PAT) (Effect of Price) (Projection) (Workings) Valuation (Scenario Building) Valuation (Results) •Cost of Equity •Calculated using CAPM method. •Data of a company- FACOR were used to get beta value •Cost of debt was taken as 12.5% •Terminal growth rate was taken as CAGR of sales •Average of DER of past data used for calculation of WaCC. •FCFF was discounted for valuation of the firm XIMB 6

Performance Performance Valuation Valuation (PAT) (Effect of Price) (Projection) (Workings) Valuation (Scenario Building) Valuation (Results) •Three scenarios were considered as follows: Scenario Beta TerminalGrowthRate Best case 1.4 14% Most Likely 1.6 10% Worst Case 1.8 6% •Variation in Terminal growth rate has been allowed for: XIMB 7

Performance Performance Valuation Valuation (PAT) (Effect of Price) (Projection) (Workings) Valuation (Scenario Building) Valuation (Results) RESULTS: Factors affecting valuation: •Increase in working capital is reducing FCFF. •Low value of debt-equity ratio is increasing WaCC. XIMB 8

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