Published on January 7, 2009
‘ICT and Sustainable Cities’ ICT Green and Connected Cities Conference Lyons 26th November CHARLES SECRETT ADVISOR ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUSTAINABILITY email@example.com 00-44-(0)7977016119
The scale of the problem: IPCC 1.1 - 6.4C rise 2100 Stern Review: Report on the Economics of Climate Change 2006
IPCC 2007: Surface warming 2080 – ‘B.A.U.’ scenario
Map of policy-relevant tipping elements in climate system (updated from ref.: Lenton, Timothy M. et al. (2008) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 105, 1786-1793) Copyright ©2008 by the National Academy of Sciences
European 2003 Summer Temperatures: normal by 2040s, cool by 2060s 2060s observations Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2) 2040s 2003
Accelerated Greenland Melt-Down – all goes = 5 metre sea-level rise … by when? Current volume loss: 2.2 x 1011 m3/yr ≈ Has doubled over past decade
100th Thames Barrier Closure
5 metre sea-level rise …
TRANSFORMATION • PLANET • SOCIETY • MARKETS • COMPANIES • HOUSEHOLDS • GOVERNMENT
End goals: climate stabilisation at 450 C02 p.p.m. by 2050 1. Zero emissions power sector 2. Energy efficiency maximisation in buildings, machinery and appliances 3. Very low/zero emissions road transport 4. Aviation and shipping greatly reduced emissions (inclusion rapidly in EU ETS) 5. Large-scale rollout of decentralised renewable energy generation (CHCP; micro-renewables) 6. Low emissions from land-use (agriculture and forestry globally) 7. Some emissions from heavy industry (e.g. cement; mining; metals production)
REQUIREMENTS • MASSIVE AND RAPID CO2 REDUCTIONS – 60% BY 2025 AND 90% BY 2050 MINIMUM • DEMATERIALISATION AND FACTOR 10 RESOURCE USE EFFICIENCY GAINS • WEALTH OPPORTUNITIES FOR POOR • VISIONARY AND HONEST POLITICAL LEADERSHIP • CIVIL SOCIETY PARTICIPATION AND INVOLVEMENT – A DEMOCRATIC 2.0 WORLD
Simple, beneficial emission cuts – why doesn’t everyone do?! Simple behavioural Major reductions from If all light bulbs were change by all home insulation and energy efficient, Londoners could help solve fuel- London would save a reduce CO2 poverty in 4-500,000 further 575,000 tonnes emissions by 2.3 homes in London of CO2 and £139 million tonnes and million per year (2006 cut fuel bills prices)
Changing carbon-heavy behaviour means changing … • Attitudes • Values • Beliefs • AND … MARKETS
The biggest block to behaviour change … As long as it is cheap, convenient and legal to waste carbon and natural resources, then that is what the great majority of individuals, households and companies will do … at work, home and play.
Enabling technologies for transformative change (from David Hone, Group Climate Change : Adviser, Shell International. CPI CLP May 2008)
Cities are responsible for 75% of the world’s CO2 emissions and 75% of resource use
ICT/technology has huge role to play for companies and cities … “While the ICT sector plans to significantly step up the energy efficiency of its products and services, ICT’s largest influence will be by enabling energy efficiencies in other sectors, an opportunity that could deliver carbon savings five times larger than the total emissions from the entire ICT sector in 2020.” ‘SMART 2020 – enabling the low carbon economy in the information age’ The Climate Group, London, 2008 http://www.theclimategroup.org/assets/resources/publications/Smart2020Report_lo_res.pdf
I.C.T. - Learning to be S.M.A.R.T. “The challenge of climate change presents an opportunity for ICT to: • Standardise (S) how energy consumption and emissions information can be traced across different processes beyond the ICT sector’s own products and services • It can monitor (M) energy consumption and emissions across the economy in real time, providing the data needed to optimise for energy efficiency • Network tools can be developed that allow accountability (A) for energy consumption and emissions alongside other key business priorities • This information can be used to rethink (R) how we should live, learn, play and work in a low carbon economy, initially by optimising efficiency, but also by providing viable low cost alternatives to high carbon activities. Although isolated efficiency gains do have an impact, ultimately it will be a platform – or a set of technologies and architectures – working coherently together, that will have the greatest impact • It is through this enabling platform that transformation (T) of the economy will occur, when standardisation, monitoring, accounting, optimisation and the business models that drive low carbon alternatives can be developed and diffused at scale across all sectors of the economy. “ 19
Summary findings: ‘SMART 2020’ – The Climate Group MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • Smart motor systems: A review of manufacturing in China has identified that without optimisation, 10% of China’s emissions (2% of global emissions) in 2020 will come from China’s motor systems alone and to improve industrial efficiency even by 10% would deliver up to 200 million tonnes (Mt) CO2e savings. Applied globally, optimised motors and industrial automation would reduce 0.97 GtCO2e in 2020, worth euro 68 billion ($107.2 billion) • Smart logistics: Through a host of efficiencies in transport and storage, smart logistics in Europe could deliver fuel, electricity and heating savings of 225 MtCO2e. The global emissions savings from smart logistics in 2020 would reach 1.52 GtCO2e, with energy savings worth euro 280 billion ($441.7 billion) • Smart buildings: A closer look at buildings in North America indicates that better building design, management and automation could save 15% of North America’s buildings emissions. Globally, smart buildings technologies would enable 1.68 GtCO2e of emissions savings, worth euro 216 billion ($340.8 billion) • Smart grids: Reducing T&D losses in India’s power sector by 30% is possible through better monitoring and management of electricity grids, first with smart meters and then by integrating more advanced ICTs into the so-called energy internet. Smart grid technologies were the largest opportunity found in the study and could globally reduce 2.03 GtCO2e , worth euro 79 billion ($124.6 billion)
Sector emission savings from ICT – from ‘SMART 2020’
ICT INTEGRATED SYSTEMS MODELLING UK Tyndall Centre: Urban Integrated Assessment Facility Further information Tyndall Centre Briefing Note 27 or firstname.lastname@example.org or email@example.com
Draw up a comprehensive action plan: e.g. London’s ‘Action Today to Protect Tomorrow: The Mayor’s Climate Change Action Plan’
London CO2 emissions (excluding aviation = + 23 m.t. CO2) 2006 Domestic 38% Ground Based 22% Transport 7% 33% Industrial Commercial and public sector 44 mt CO2
London Climate Change Action Plan - Required CO2 reductions Profile of national targets and Today 50 aspirations (against 1990) 45.1m 44.3m Proposed London reductions to achieve 450ppm stabilisation and Carbon Dioxide Emissions (MtCO2) 60% by 2025 and 90% by 2050 40 20% targets 15% 25% 10 year target 30% (2016) 30 = 20% 600 million Target for London = 60% 20 tonnes CO2 60% to 2025 (vs 2000) 10 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Programmes to help Londoners + businesses change behaviour and reduce emissions 1. Green Homes Programme 2. Green Organisations Programme 3. Green Energy Programme 4. Green Transport Programme
Overall CO2 savings by sector and measure Maximum saving possible Million tonnes of CO2 Achievable savings through Mayor’s Action Plan w/ no national action * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Lighting and appliances Lighting and appliances * * Behavioural change Thermal efficiency * * Thermal efficiency * * * * * * * * * * * * New Build Domestic Commercial Supply Transport * Public transport, i.e., underground, buses & coaches, national rail
A One Stop Shop – The Green Homes Service GREEN HOMES PROGRAMME £7m next year INCREASE PROVIDE EXECUTE/ DEVELOP 1 2 3 AWARENESS INFORMATION THE SUPPLY CHAIN • Not aware how their homes • Not sure what they should • Can’t overcome the inertia/hassle contribute to CO2, or that do about it, or who they factor, don’t have the funds, BARRIER they can do anything about should get to help them inadequate supply of skilled it with it tradesman to perform the work 1. Marketing 2. Advice service 3. Concierge service (owner and (all consumer occupiers, able-to-pay) Initiative behavioural segments) 4. Social housing and fuel change poor programme (non able - Web portal campaigns to pay/fuel poor) (all 5. Skills training (all sectors) – Phone consumer 6. House Purchase and – Face to segments) refurbishment initiative Face (owner occupier, able to pay counters 7. Green Landlord initiative (IKEA (privately rented) partner?) 8. Influencing government – Promotions (lobbying programme) with private sector
Congestion charges and behaviour change – carbon pricing works
Environmental gains: emissions reductions/modal shift 1. 13% NOx and 15% PM10 emission reductions in the charging zone 2. 16% less CO2 emissions 3. 20% savings in fuel consumption 4. Net revenues of £123 million in 2006/7 for ‘green’ public transport schemes 5. 4% shift from cars to public transport, cycling and walking – only global city to have achieved such a modal shift
Cashless carbon friendly travel
Camera enforcement – no free riders!
Thousands of fixed/mobile cameras – democracy in action?
USING IT SYSTEMS To Protect Health - Walkit.com + airTEXT real time empowering people over air pollution and health issues Central London Boroughs • Inclusion of air quality information on walkit.com • Enable users to select the least polluted route Consortium of London Boroughs & GLA www.airtext.info • Free phone alerts and health advice when air pollution is predicted to be moderate or high. • Launched London-wide in March 2007 • 80% of users found airTEXT helped them manage their symptoms better & reduce their exposure to air pollution
The Future? Possible options for transport carbon pricing and incentives for green travel using IT systems • Oyster – polling shows a very positive public response. Current discounts include FREE travel for kids in school and for Old Age Pensioners • Possibilities to add other carbon-cutting incentives to travel during less busy periods, and integrate with the congestion charge and road pricing, in order to optimise the use of the combined public transport and road networks throughout the day. For example: 1. for people who travel off-peak (not during the rush hours) or if you decide to work from home one or more days a week. ITC allows this type of finely targeted discounting 2. tie in with other types of commercial operation – such as purchases of zero-low carbon technologies and home products (e.g. micro- renewables like solar or hybrid or hydrogen fuel-cell car purchases) which may count as reward points for even lower fares. 3. Offer vouchers for buying a bicycle or purchasing green household products 4. For cyclists who have never owned a car may provide cash in their pockets
Paradigm shifts – hybrids, hydrogen fuel cell or electric? Nissan Pivo electric prototype The batteries of a zero-emission vehicle need three things in place in for optimum functionality: charging spots, battery switching stations (100 miles +), and software that automates the experience. ‘E-mobility Germany’ Smartcar/Daimler RWE electricity charging
Project Better Place - $550 month service charge
EU-Middle East–North Africa Renewables Super-grid Sketch of possible infrastructure for a sustainable supply of power http://www.desertec.org/downloads/summary_en.pdf
Summary: Transformational imperatives to change carbon- heavy behaviours 1. Enabling policy, regulatory and tax framework of ‘carrots and sticks’ for companies and citizens to reward zero-low carbon use and penalise high carbon use 2. Long-term strategy with best science targets and policy drivers to transform markets to value zero/low carbon 3. Cheaper, more convenient and integrated low carbon solutions (including procurement drivers) 4. Exemplar zero-low carbon/waste developments and projects 5. Comprehensive information, advice and audit programmes for households and companies 6. Verifiable, coordinated and effective international action 7. Partnerships between sectors – public, private, domestic, voluntary 8. Integrated changes across economic sectors – financial, energy, transport, waste, buildings 9. Leadership – political, professional, personal.
CHALLENGE = TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE • A broad range of existing and new (disruptive) technologies and green infra- structure must be fully and rapidly deployed within all sectors of society • A holistic policy framework needed to hasten the technology pathways – integrated regulations, taxation, planning. Incentives, as well as penalties, are vital • Single economy policies will not work – must be global cooperation and full implementation of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
Smart Sustainable Cities. ICTs can play a significant role to improve the carbon footprint of cities by moving to a more intelligent use of energy.
ICT for Sustainable Cities Mercè Griera i Fisa, European Commission DG Information Society and Media Unit ICT for Sustainable Growth
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