Published on February 14, 2014
Trends in Food Supply and Impacts on Food Consumption WB Traill, University of Reading Paper co-authors: M Mazzocchi, B Shankar, D Hallam
Outline •How diets have changed since 1992 •Supply system drivers of change •Some policy implications
Sales growth rates selected food categories
Overweight and Underweight prevalence
AGRICULTURAL & TRADE POLICIES Consumer policies Trade polices Producer support policies Food prices Food availability Food preferences Food consumption Intakes Dietary quality Income effects Prevalence of undernutrition Prevalence of overnutrition TRENDING FACTORS Population growth Globalisation Urbanisation Energy prices (biofuels, oil price volatility) Market organization Technical progress (agricultural productivity, progress in processing / preserving foods) Incomes Other sociodemographic trends
Today’s focus: Consumption implications of supply chain modernisation
Income growth GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international $) Country grouping Low income Middle income High income European Union OECD members Sub-Saharan Africa World 1992 738 3048 24866 20664 22931 1535 6797 2010 1127 5998 33119 27555 30112 2041 9889 Yearly growth 2.4% 3.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 2.1%
Female labour force participation OECD Growth 1992-2010 =20% (48m) Low income countries + 58% Middle income countries +46%
Foreign Direct Investment Source WIR.
Trade and Investment policies •Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) (1994) and World Trade Organisation (1995) •200 plus regional agreements registered with WTO •SPS and TBT measures of WTO/Codex •Trade-Related Investment Measures (TRIMS)
RETAILERS Asian food retail market clusters Discriminating Shopper Markets Multi-Format Modern Growth Markets Big and Basic Markets Source: Food Retail Formats in Asia
Implications of supply chain modernisation On supply chain organisation Tight vertical control Private standards Centralised purchasing, warehousing and distribution Product differentiation and sophisticated marketing On supply chain actors Opportunities and threats to domestic farmers, processors, distributors and retailers On consumers? Have the observed changes caused consumption shifts or responded to them? Much less well understood!
Hypotheses of why food system changes have an ‘additional’ impact on consumption 1. They lower the price of processed foods relative to traditional staples and fresh F&V. 2. They make more foods available (e.g. chilled foods such as dairy products, processed meats, product variety, snack foods, fast foods, soft drinks) 3. They enhance food safety and quality (enforcement of standards) which promotes consumer confidence in the foods supermarkets sell 4. They employ sophisticated marketing, often targeted at children, to encourage a preference for western foods Implications: diets are more diverse, deliver cheaper energy, enhanced micronutrient availability, but processed/fast foods are often energy dense with higher levels of salt, saturated and trans fats. NB. In general consumers derive pleasure from these developments!
Some policy implications: Harness the good, avoid the bad •Continued liberalisation of markets (trade, investment, institutions) will contribute to supply chain modernisation and the benefits (and costs) this can bring •Modern supply chains offer opportunities for delivery of micronutrients through dietary diversity and fortification •Governments should work with industry to promote reformulation (reduced salt, saturated and trans fats, sugar) •Take early steps to minimise/reverse trends in over-nutrition— information and market intervention measures.
Thank you for your attention!
A picture of food consumption ... That is why food supply data have been presented ... A brief discussion of the health impact of these food consumption ...
2 Trends in UK food consumption and supply 13 2.1 Trends in UK food consumption 13 ... 3 Environmental impacts of food consumed in the UK
... local culinary supply; food consumption ... have a considerable impact on food production and consumption in ... EVES Globalisation Food Consumption ...
IMPACTS OF BIOFUEL PRODUCTION ON ... Impacts on food security will depend ... Land and water requirements of biofuel and implications for food supply ...
... Environmental Impact of Food Production and Consumption - Palaniappa ... Shortage of potable water and agriculture water supplies now affects more ...
The Environmental Food Crisis ... The growth in food demand and need is the result of the combined effects of ... With growing incomes, consumption ...
4 Changing Structure of Global Food Consumption and Trade / WRS-01-1 Economic Research Service/USDA ... Have supply-side effects had an impact on the shift in
Global and regional food consumption ... The total food fish supply and hence consumption has been ... in the impact of income on food consumption in ...
WORLD FOOD SUPPLY (contd.) FOOD FROM ... Stabilizing the current meat production per capita by reducing meat consumption in the ... Environmental impacts ...