Published on April 7, 2008
Biofuels The next Generation in Sustainable Fuel?: Biofuels The next Generation in Sustainable Fuel? LUFPIG & GLOBE Conference on Biofuels European Parliament, 6 March 2007 Ian Midgley Chief Supply Chain Officer A growing world population will lead to a growing demand for food: A growing world population will lead to a growing demand for food Population (in billions) 2000 6.1 billion Source: United Nations, 2004: World Population to 2300 more developed countries less developed countries 2006 6.6 billion World Population (in billions) Two thirds of EU 25 rape oil consumption is for Biofuels – already today: Two thirds of EU 25 rape oil consumption is for Biofuels – already today Rising need for import of oils & fats in EU-25 - already a reality today: Rising need for import of oils & fats in EU-25 - already a reality today Slide6: RAPE RAPE LAND USAGE calculation to achieve 5,75% target (mio ha): 4,6 New Demand Bio-ethanol 9,0 New Demand Bio-Diesel 13,6 2010 New Requirements + Impact of Biofuel in EU Competition for land – Sustainability? +65% INSUFFICIENT “SET ASIDE LAND” TO COVER BIO-FUEL DEMAND IN 2010 Based on a 5,75% target Slide7: Price for rape and sun flower on record heights – already a reality today Rapeseed Oil Sunflower Oil Shrinking world wheat stocks- already a reality today: Shrinking world wheat stocks - already a reality today Slide9: (Sugar Cane) Bio-mass Bandwidth in efficiency of land usage RME (sugar cane based Biofuel ) Reed Poplar ha / t GHG 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 RME Bioethanol Reed Poplar Source: Calculations based on Schmitz 2005, Kaltschmitt 2002, IEA 2004 GOOD (Rape oil based Biofuel) Acreage requirement per ton of CO2 reduction Slide10: -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 RME Bio-ethanol Bio-ethanol Source: Turley 2003; Schmitz 2005; IEA 2004 (EU: Sugar beet, wheat, corn) (Brazil: Sugar cane) GOOD (Rape seed bio-fuel) High cost of reduced greenhouse gas emissions for the European route € / t GHG Cost of greenhouse gas reduction for selected Biofuels Slide11: Vegetable oils are no solution to reduce dependency on mineral oil Conclusion: Conclusion Mandatory targets for Biofuels: Unlikely to deliver a meaningful reduction in GHG-emissions Very low impact on overall energy security Puts energy on an economic collision course with food/feed destabilising critical markets Proposals: Continuing emphasis on energy savings programmes Flexibility in EU policy, careful monitoring of impact on key markets Further research on sustainability, land and GHG balance Accelerate research into 2nd generation technologies Prioritise power, heating and cooling applications over transport
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