Huang Xiaogang, Fujian Sunway Resources: 2012 China’s imported coal market analysis & 2013 forecast

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Information about Huang Xiaogang, Fujian Sunway Resources: 2012 China’s imported coal...

Published on February 4, 2014

Author: informaoz

Source: slideshare.net

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Huang Xiaogang, Vice General Manager, Fujian Sunway Resources Limited delivered this presentation at the 2013 Russian & CIS Coal Summit. Co-organised with Informa's Adam Smith Conferences, the Summit provides top CEOs, investors, analysts and officials with a platform for debate, analysis and networking with the key representatives from Russia's major coal producing companies. For more information about the annual event, please visit the conference website: http://www.immevents.com/russiaciscoal

2012 China’s imported coal market analysis & 2013 forecast

Market distribution and situation of China's imported coal  The characteristics of China's coal reserves  Rich in resources, but per capita is low, the existing reserves recoverable only 35 years  Uneven resources distribution, Rich in North & West, Poor in South& East  Regional varieties and quality difference, unsatisfactory distribution  lack of open pit, difficult in exploit and higher cost

 Background of coal import  Government’s attitude (Limit export, Encourage Import, economic stimulus)  transportation bottleneck, complex geological and mining factors, disadvantage in price competition  Sudden weather conditions  Coastal provinces are China's main imports coal market

The gap of Chinese coal demand in the next 20 years(million tons standard) 600000 538442.49 504785.49 500000 429561.87 400000 300000 200000 100000 365548.14 352000 311073.79 consum prediction coal production 0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

 China's coal demand gap in the next 20 years might reach 1.5 billion tons  3 stages of China’s coal trade history  Before 2004 ------ export based  2004 - 2009 ------ import increase  After 2009 ------ Net import

Chinese coal import and export trends in 2002-2011 20000 18240 18000 16483 16000 14000 12000 12583 10000 import 8000 export 6000 4000 2000 2240 1903 1466 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

 Main sources of China’s imported coal and its development direction  Indonesia, Australia, Vietnam, Mongolia, Russia are the main country where China import coal at present  2002-2011 Main countries where China import coal

nation Mi ton% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Indonesia import 193.8 77.8 127.5 235.0 493.8 1124.4 1118.6 3030.9 5503.1 6469.6 increase - -59.9% 64.0% 84.2% 110.2% 127.7% -0.5% 171.0% 81.6% 17.6% import 434.2 464.2 528.1 588.5 690.1 413.9 354.3 4394.9 3696.3 3255.6 increase - 6.9% 13.8% 11.4% 17.3% -40.0% -14.4% 1140.4% -15.9% -11.9% import 224.2 248.7 611.7 993.1 2008.0 2461.6 1690.6 2408.2 1804.7 2206.6 increase - 11.0% 145.9% 62.4% 102.2% 22.6% -31.3% 42.4% -25.1% 22.3% import 0.0 0.0 0.0 235.1 215.4 311.9 404.4 600.3 1659.5 2015.5 increase - - - - -8.3% 44.8% 29.7% 48.5% 176.4% 21.5% import 115.2 72.5 60.7 89.7 99.1 26.8 76.0 1178.5 1158.6 1057.4 increase - -37.1% -16.2% 47.7% 10.5% -72. 9% 183.5% 1450.6% -1.7% -8.7% import 39.0 72.8 157.1 280.0 248.1 374.1 253.7 359.8 461.1 1116.9 increase - 86.6% 115.7% 78.2% -11.4% 50.8% -32.2% 41.8% 29.0% 140.7% import 0.0 0.0 181.5 122.9 14.6 22.3 56.0 409.3 519.7 449.5 increase - - - - - - - - 857.4% 32.1% import 40.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.2 700.5 925.6 increase - - - - - - - - 857.4% 32.1% import 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.5 476.8 490.0 increase - - - - - - - - 492.6% 2.8% import 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 377.9 131.0 Australia Vietnam Mongolia Russia Korea Canada South Africa America Colombia

 The development direction of China‘s imported coal source  Factors need to concern  1、 Strategic point of view  2、Stability of supply  Trend  Australia -- main  Vietnam, Indonesia – decrease  Mongolia, Russia -- increase

China current coal prices and market situation  In 2012, production growth fell back, stock rise sharply - Total output 3.66 billion tons - Stock at end of 2012 85 million tons  Import 0.29 billion tons in 2012  More in 2013 , give pressure on domestic coal price。

 Coal price falling sharply in 2012.  Still continued drop till now  Till March 2013 coal inventories are still high  Coal producer’s inventory year-on-year growth37.8%  Power plant’s inventory year-on-year down 3.6%  Port inventory year-on-year growth 31.5%

 The main factors affecting the current coal market  Economy stabilized and rebound, but actual growth less than expected  Domestic coal production capacity release  The effects on domestic coal market from imported coal is enhancing  Slowly growth of main coal consumption industry  new changes in energy consumption structure  strengthen environmental constraints  policy adjustments

China Coal consumption and Import expectation  2013 Domestic coal production will remain at a high level.  No obvious improvement in the 2013 first half  Slow growth in Demand, slow growth in coal consumption。

 Recent import steam coal market is under weak consolidation  quotation is temporarily stable:  Indonesia USD49-50/MT CFR NCV3800Kcal/kg  Australian & South Africa  USD82.5-83.5/MT CFR NCV5500Kcal/kg coal  wait-and-see atmosphere is still strong  "smooth" and "weak rebound" is the basic characteristics of China's economy this year.

 A gently rising in social power consumption this year  View:  In 2013, China's demand for imported coal will still grow, growth speed may be slowing  Imported coal prices remain relatively stable at low level

Company introduction: Fujian Sunway Resources Limited  Enter into coal business since 2006  Mainly served for the power plants, steelworks in the China Southeast Coastal Areas  Sincerely looking forward to establish mutual beneficial long-term co-operations with coal production enterprises

 Contact: Mr. Huang Xiaogang (Richard)  Vice General Manager  Tel: 0086-591-87834677  Fax: 0086-591-87850748  Email:fjggsw@gmail.com  Website: www.sunwayfj.com

THANK YOU Huang Xiaogang (Richard)

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