Published on March 4, 2014
HOW FUTURE CITIES WILL SUCCEED: CREATING SMART AND SUSTAINABLE CITIES Bob Prieto © 2012 Fluor. All Rights Reserved.
3 Propositions Our cities are multi-dimensional and current frameworks are inadequate for the future Future cities require a Resilience Code Community resilience requires partnership between public, NGO and private sectors 2
What Do We Know About the Future of Our Cities? A lot…… very little – Its uncertain Likely that they have a future – 5000 years of urban growth – Good economic model Complex. Changing. Dynamic. Challenging. Current frameworks must evolve…..or break
A Challenging Future Simple Static Certain Capital Efficiency Build for decades The Bottom Line Safety Focus Business Case → → → → → → → → Complex Dynamic Uncertain Life Cycle Effectiveness Build for generations Triple Bottom Line Hazard Avoided Scenario Based Resiliency
Proposition #1 Our cities are multi-dimensional and current frameworks are inadequate for the future – – – – – – Economic Social Political Religious/cultural Intellectual Technological
7DSM Future for Our Cities 3D – Location based information 4D – Time 5D – Attributes associated with initial instance 6D – Attributes associated with life cycle 7D – “System” level properties All must grow in scope and reach in the future
Examples of How Dimensions Change ♦ 3D – absolute and relative positions (rise of assemblies); tolerances important; position awareness ♦ 4D – cradle to grave (or longer) • Dynamic, changeable futures • Designing, building, operating for renewal and replacement • Scenario based futures ♦ 5D - essentially a set of attributes associated with first delivery of an asset; must now include TBL; uncertainty; assembly properties; benefits and impacts ♦ 6D – asset life cycle attributes; O&M and End-of-Life benefits and impacts; TBL considerations; scenario based and time series values
6th Dimension as Enabler True measure is not lowest LCC but the highest life cycle returns – Serve an evolving society Developing and implementing cost-effective strategies recognizing the long-term purpose and nature of assets Monitoring, maintaining, enhancing asset performance. Anticipating, mitigating, managing risks associated with asset degradation Sharpens Asset Management focus Enables robust life cycle planning – Up front scenario planning – Dynamic asset and enterprise reconfiguration - Improved Refurbishment and Replacement (R&R) planning improves the quality of capital funding strategies Transition to Predictive Asset management – Assess real time conditions and implications – Asset O&M optimization strategies - Systems level view • Deploying limited financial, physical and human resources in efficient, effective and sustainable manner; making informed tradeoffs as part of our decision making process
7th Dimension – System Level Properties 7th Dimension reflects the inherent capability of our 6D system to adopt and respond in ways it was not explicitly intended to do when first conceived We use words like these to describe these system level properties – Flexibility – Adaptability – Responsiveness … or F-A-R ness We also refer to these system level properties with words like RESILIENCE
7th Dimension is Dynamic 7DSM “states” are function of: – – – – – – – How designed and built Equipment and materials choices we made How we operated and maintained Events we have experienced Knowledge gained and captured Externalities and how they have changed and are changing Insights we have embedded into our asset decisions 7th Dimension will allow stress testing for Resilience Broadens perspective of traditional life cycle methodologies: Framework for reconfirmation of strategies or reconfiguration guidance Dynamic life cycle based management tool essential in managing urban portfolios. LCA NPV(Confidence)= PΣ All Σ t=1 [( n=1 C(n(σ, PDF), t, q, ScenarioN, Configx, D#(t, ScenarioN), Limit#(t, D, ScenarioN)) *q ) - (All Σ n=1 R(n(σ, PDF), t, q, ScenarioN, Configx, D#(t, ScenarioN), Limit#(t, D, ScenarioN)) *q )]
Proposition #2 Future cities require a Resilience Code Resilience - The ability to resist, absorb, recover from, or successfully adapt to adversity or change of conditions such as a terrorist attack, hurricane, earthquake, technological failure (dam collapse or nuclear power plant accident. (DHS 2009)
Recognize Resilience Challenge ♦ Impacts from events of scale can be very devastating – – – – – – – Attacks of 9/11 Florida hurricanes of 2004 Huricane Katrina 2005 Japan 2011 earthquake and tsunami Super Storm Sandy 2012 Oklahoma City 2013 tornado Drought, wildfire, flooding, severe storms, etc Risks are known Risk models have been developed to predict these risks Plans can be made to counter the negative effects Events affect public and private sectors 12
Urbanization Increases Resilience Challenge Population & Industry Densities in Hurricane & Earthquake Hazard Zones
Impacts Are Growing 14
…but stronger codes are saving lives 15
0 1900 1950 2010 16 Number of people reported affected 100MM 200 400 Number of disasters reported 200K 0 Number of people reported Killed 500K 500 Natural disaster summary 1900-2011 (linear-interpolated smoothed lines) 250MM Future Cities Require Resilience Codes
Resilience Code: Stronger Buildings • • • • • • • • • • • • Prevent Storm Damage to Homes Relocate & Protect Building Systems Remove Barriers to Elevating Buildings & Building Systems Add Backup Fire Safety Communication Safeguard Toxic Materials Stored in Flood Zones Prevent Sewage Backflow Plant Wind & Flood Resistant Trees Clarify Construction Requirements in Flood Zones Prevent Wind Damage to Existing Buildings Analyze Wind Risks Capture Stormwater to Prevent Flooding Use Cool Surfaces to Reduce Summer Heat U.S. Green Building Council New York Chapter, Building Resilience Task Force Summary 2013 17
Resilience Code: Back-up Power Choose Reliable Backup Power & Prioritize Needs Use Cogeneration & Solar During Blackouts Remove Barriers to Backup & Natural Gas Generators Remove Barriers to Cogeneration Remove Barriers to Solar Energy Add Hookups for Temporary Generators & Boilers Keep Residential Stairwells & Hallways Lit During Blackouts Keep Gas Stations Open During Blackouts U.S. Green Building Council New York Chapter, Building Resilience Task Force Summary 2013 18
Resilience Code: Essential Safety Supply Drinking Water Without Power Ensure Toilets & Sinks Work Without Power Enhance Building Water Reserves Ensure Operable Windows in Residential Buildings Maintain Habitable Temperatures Without Power U.S. Green Building Council New York Chapter, Building Resilience Task Force Summary 2013 19
Resilience Code: Better Community Planning Create Emergency Plans Adopt an Existing Building Code Don’t Discourage Buildings from Operating During Emergencies Support Good Samaritan Legislation Pre-approve Emergency Inspectors Pre-negotiate Emergency Recovery Agreements U.S. Green Building Council New York Chapter, Building Resilience Task Force Summary 2013 20
Proposition #3 Community resilience requires partnership between public, NGO and private sectors Public Sector Private Sector NGO Sector Community Resilience includes: • Family housing & school • Local businesses – Small and Large • Local & regional governments • Critical utilities and infrastructure, etc Citizens 21
Community Resilience - Issues • Resilience has just entered into the National discussion • Critical Infrastructure resides between Government and Private Industry, making it difficult to mitigate risk • Stafford Act focuses on Individual and Public Assistance – Hurricane Katrina – Nearly 7,900 businesses were shut down in southeast Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina – Similar stories from Super Storm Sandy • Private Industry is not addressed in current Response or Recovery planning efforts other than SBA loans Note: Private industry is primary income for Public (Taxation), Citizens (Income) 22
Community Resilience - Challenges • • • • Risk transfer is used as primary method to address risk Risk mitigation not effectively used to build resilience Few truly understand the cost / benefit to mitigating risk Insurance industry has yet to acknowledge the benefits of Pre-Event Planning – Cost Benefit = Premium Reduction • Public, Private, NGO and Citizens are not engaged methods to build Community Resilience o Insurance industry has a special role to play 23
Community Resilience – Path Forward Common language – Resilience and Resilience Scoring Move from a Life Safety to a Resilience Code Public, Private, NGO, Citizens and the Insurance Industry must collaborate to build Community Resilience – Collective Recovery Time Objectives – All Hazard Assessments – Vulnerability Assessments, Risk Management & Mitigation – Collective Response and Recovery Planning Community needs to better understand of cost benefits of mitigation Insurance Industry needs to reward policy holders for taking proactive measures towards Resilience 24
Dimensions of Resilience to consider Economic – Financial – Facilities – Logistics – Infrastructure – Critical Utilities Social – Security – Employees – Housing Stock – Supply Chain Management Political – Governance Cultural – Communications Technological – Equipment – Information Technology work with local companies to prioritize mitigation and retrofit measures determine center of mass for both commerce and government prioritize infrastructure mitigation around these centers 25
Summary – 3 Propositions Our cities are multi-dimensional and current frameworks are inadequate for the future Future cities require a Resilience Code Community resilience requires partnership between public, NGO and private sectors 26
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